Wednesday 9 a.m.
Last year at this time, a walk into a Great Lakes or Northeast garden could be met with an early season bee sting, and the first mosquitoes had appeared. This year, the main sting is the wind, and fairly often, snow and sleet. The blocking pattern that has repeatedly renewed the cold shows no sign of breaking down, and computer models that extend into April show no definitive change even then. This video has more.
One fascinating topic this morning is the discussion of snow possibilities for this weekend in the Plains and Midwest and what happens when the storm gets to the East Coast. The map below shows the solutions from last night's (1) US model, GFS, and (2) the European model, ECMWF, when the storm passes nearest to Chicago. The same issues of how far north or south the track will be will help determine who get snow, who gets rain and who gets both between D.C. and Boston.
Snowfall amounts yesterday were low from Philadelphia to New York City. Accumulations increased toward the north and northeast.
This map shows the NAM's projection for this Friday night. The isobaric pattern suggests there is a southwesterly flow of mild air from the Gulf states to the Middle Atlantic region. Farther north, we see evidence of the frontal boundary that separates the mild air from chillier air.
A new area of snow now over southern Minnesota should expand southeastward to reach Chicago this afternoon, streak to Pittsburgh this evening, then reach the Philadelphia/New York City area late tonight or early tomorrow morning. This map shows a low pressure area over Missouri.
This map shows expected accumulations.
Check AccuWeather.com's latest info as the forecast ideas mature. This is a draft of the Thursday morning snow accumulation idea.
Here is one snapshot from this morning's NAM run, depicting the precipitation it predicts for Saturday between 1 and 7 p.m. ET. The rain/snow line should be close to the Pennsylvania-Maryland border.