Wednesday 9 a.m.
Last year at this time, a walk into a Great Lakes or Northeast garden could be met with an early season bee sting, and the first mosquitoes had appeared. This year, the main sting is the wind, and fairly often, snow and sleet. The blocking pattern that has repeatedly renewed the cold shows no sign of breaking down, and computer models that extend into April show no definitive change even then. This video has more.
One fascinating topic this morning is the discussion of snow possibilities for this weekend in the Plains and Midwest and what happens when the storm gets to the East Coast. The map below shows the solutions from last night's (1) US model, GFS, and (2) the European model, ECMWF, when the storm passes nearest to Chicago. The same issues of how far north or south the track will be will help determine who get snow, who gets rain and who gets both between D.C. and Boston.
This draft forecast map shows the heaviest snow from the upcoming storm is likely from northern Illinois to northern New England. Tomorrow afternoon, conditions may range from blizzard conditions in central New York to spring style thunderstorms in southern Pennsylvania.
This is the chameleon month of March. Always searching for a sense of identity, its days stagger through punches of waning winter, dance with the sunlit caresses of coming spring and hide behind thick clouds through the wind-swept battles between the two.
In the early to middle part of next week, there could be a hint of spring in the region from Illinois to New Jersey. This is a forecast map for next Tuesday morning. The average rain-snow line is midway between the last blue dashed line and the first red dashed line, and.... is that a daring daffodil???
There is uncertainty about how far north a storm from the Gulf states will come on Friday. This morning's NAM is rather bullish on the system. However, it suggests milder weather for the Northeast for a while this weekend before the next cold front arrives.
Many people have requested some real spring weather in the Northeast. Looking out two weeks with the European model, it still looks chilly on this flow aloft forecast for March 19.
This map shows accumulations as of 8 a.m. They have continued to increase since then in Delaware, Maryland and Virginia.