Iowa voters could 'feel the Bern,' but what temps will they feel when they caucus on Monday?

As the Democratic presidential candidates race to make their final appeals to voters ahead of the first contest of the 2020 election season, the latest polling data aggregated by the website FiveThirtyEight show a tight race at the top between former Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Biden has taken notice of the "neck-and-neck" race between himself and Sanders, he told George Stephanopolous during a Friday appearance on Good Morning America. Responding to a question about whether he thinks he'll win the Iowa Caucuses on Monday, Biden said, "I think it's going to be really close, George," before adding, "If there's a big snowstorm in ... certain parts of the state, it could have an effect."

The good news for Biden is that he won't have to worry about a snowstorm, something his campaign fretted about in mid-January, AccuWeather meteorologists say.

It may be a razor-thin margin between whether or not Iowans "feel the Bern" on Monday and there will be a thin margin separating what types of temperatures voters feel as they head out to caucus. Temperatures will depend on what part of the state voters live in.

Forecasters say precipitation should be largely absent for the Iowa caucuses in 2020.

A major snowstorm swept in during the 2016 Iowa Caucuses, causing tricky travel conditions, and Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas pulled out a 3 percentage point win over Donald Trump in that contest. On the Democratic side at the 2016 Iowa Caucuses, the outcome was equally as close -- former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pulled out a 3 percentage point win over Sanders.

Forecasters say that even though widespread winter weather isn't expected this time around, cold air could potentially affect voter turnout for some in the Hawkeye State.

In fact, according to AccuWeather meteorologists, a cold front is expected slice southward across the state during Sunday night and Monday and could cause major temperature fluctuations as millions of voters head out for the Iowa Caucuses.

Voter turnout and election results have been linked to weather conditions in past research conducted by AccuWeather. In a 2016 analysis of overall weather trends and voting data, utilizing L2 as a resource, AccuWeather found that uncomfortable conditions, such as frigid or hot and muggy weather can deter swing voters. Additionally, women were found to be more sensitive to cold conditions than men, and younger voters, aged 18 to 24, have higher turnout rates when the weather is sunny and warm.

Thermometers are likely to show temperatures in the 40s and perhaps the 50s F across Iowa this weekend in the runup to the caucuses as a series of weak storms moves eastward along the Canada-United States border.

"Gusty west to southwest winds will direct the warm air across much of the Plains and Mississippi Valley," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.

The winds are likely to be more of an annoyance and not likely strong enough to have a major influence on ground travel or cause other problems like power outages.

Colder air will sweep into northwestern Iowa during Sunday night and then the southeastern part of the state during the day Monday. Temperatures may be no higher than the 20s over the northern tier, but may start the day in the 40s and 50s in the southeast, before falling into the 30s.

Dry air will initially accompany the cold push with nothing more than spotty flurries or sprinkles around the state for most of the day and during the evening hours on Monday.

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A storm is forecast to then move along the front as it stalls just to the south of the state but any accumulating snow or significant ice is likely to wait until very late Monday night or during the day Tuesday to overspread the state.

Winter coats may be needed for those venturing out to attend caucus gatherings during Monday evening. AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures are likely to be in the teens to the lower 20s.

Normal high temperatures for the beginning of February in Des Moines, Iowa, are right around the freezing mark, 32 degrees Fahrenheit. Overnight lows typically dip to around 15 F.

"While many will call that cold, Iowans are used to wintry chill like that during that time of year,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Derek Witt said.

The weather should pose fewer travel problems for voters this year when compared to 2016.

“In 2016, the Iowa Caucus was held on Monday, Feb. 1. On that Monday night, a winter storm began to impact the state, with snow beginning in southern and western portions of Iowa during the evening hours and spreading northeastward throughout the night," Witt said.

"The snowy weather continued into Tuesday, with blizzardlike conditions across Iowa for the day after the caucuses," he said. "The bulk of the inclement weather did not occur during the day of the caucuses, but history has shown that people may choose to not go out and vote simply because they don’t want to travel in bad weather."

The Democratic Party will also follow a new slate of rules that may add confusion to an already complicated process in order to have the ability to do a recount if needed, according to the Iowa Public Radio. Under the new rules, Democrats will be allowed to do a recount in the event of an extremely close outcome.

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