Warmup, storms to follow new arctic blast in Midwest and Northeast
Soon after Arctic air unloads frigid temperatures and more lake-effect snow, a warmup will begin this weekend and the next storm(s) could bring mostly rain to the East.
A new round of brutally cold air is targeting much of the eastern half of the U.S. in the first days of December.
Soon after a blast of arctic air bottoms out in the Midwest and Northeast, temperatures are forecast to slowly rebound this weekend ahead of a series of storms for next week, AccuWeather meteorologists say. However, while the warmup may sound good to some, it may present problems as well.
The latest surge of arctic air will swing through at a much faster pace than the cold wave that lingered for much of the extended Thanksgiving weekend and into the start of this week.
As the core of the coldest air pivots into Atlantic Canada, a pathway will open for milder air to expand northward and eastward from the Mississippi River to the Atlantic coast of the United States beginning this weekend and continuing into next week, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
For example, in Chicago, following the coldest air of the season so far with temperatures no higher than the 32 F Thursday and Friday, high temperatures will trend upward through the 40s this weekend. The historical average high for early December is near 40 degrees.
Farther to the east, the warming trend will be a day or so behind Chicago. In New York City, the depths of the cold air will be felt Friday, with a high in the mid-30s. From Sunday to Wednesday of next week, highs will generally be in the high 40s to mid-50s. The historical average high in New York City is in the middle to upper 40s for early December.
At the conclusion of the lake-effect snow that will last into Saturday, portions of western and northern New York, northwestern Pennsylvania, northeastern Ohio and Michigan will be buried under 3-6 feet of snow and much higher drifts.
"All of that snow will be difficult to melt all at once, but some of it will thaw, given the milder air heading for the region," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said, "At the very least, the melting snow in urban areas will lead to flooding where storm drains are clogged and buried."
Multiple storms to follow cold air retreat
Some rain is on the way from later Sunday to Monday over the central and lower Great Lakes region as the first in a series of storms begins. Any rain thrown onto the deep snow will be absorbed to some extent, but it will also lead to additional melting.
"Since there is nothing really to hold the arctic air in place in the Northeast and the fact that any cold air will turn stale quickly, rain will fall instead of snow in most areas of the Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, and southern New England from later Sunday to Monday," said Pastelok.
Pastelok added that parts of upstate New York, northern and central New England, and perhaps some lingering cold spots in Pennsylvania from Sunday night to Monday will have the best chance of snow or an icy mix.
The intensity of the rain may vary from drizzle and light showers to downpours, depending on location, the track, and the storm's strength. At the very least, the rain will add some weight to the snow in areas buried by the latest lake-effect, which could strain roofs that have not been cleared off.
In addition to wet roads, a more widespread problem accompanying the storm may be locally dense fog. The cold ground and deep snow cover in some areas are the perfect medium for creating foggy conditions as milder air moves in.
Next week: Stripe of heavy snow possible for Midwest, unlikely in much of East
There will likely be additional storms next week, but their track, intensity and primary form of precipitation will depend on a push of chillier air from the west. At this time, rain is most likely with each of these storms next week along the Atlantic coast. Some snow cannot be ruled out on the tail end of the storm train next week over the Appalachians.
At least one of the storms has the potential to produce a strip of heavy snow that extends from the Rockies early next week to portions of the Plains and Midwest around the middle of next week. The first snowflakes from that storm may fall on Colorado this weekend. Denver is currently in the zone where snow is possible early next week.
The exact area that receives snow in the Central states will depend on the storm's track. Travelers in this region may want to keep up to date on the forecast. If the storm develops to its full potential, significant disruptions would be possible.
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