Large winter storm to spread across Midwest, Northeast during 1st days of March
The storm will threaten to bring accumulating snow from parts of Illinois to New England late this week, and snowfall rates could reach 1-2 inches per hour in some areas.
Some locations across the Midwest and interior Northeast could receive up to a foot or more of snow.
A stormy pattern that marked the end of February across the United States will continue into the first days of March as a blockbuster winter storm unleashes heavy snow and threatens to cause widespread travel disruptions across the Midwest and Northeast later this week.
AccuWeather meteorologists warn that the storm is likely to bring heavy snow to Chicago and Milwaukee, a moderate amount of snow to Detroit and Boston and enough snow for roads to become slippery north of the New York City metro area. The storm will arrive just a few days after light to moderate snow was reported in many of the same locations.
"The storm system will be a complex one where one center of low pressure will track northeastward into the Midwest and weaken from Thursday night to Friday before a secondary low pressure area forms along the mid-Atlantic coast and heads northeastward over the ocean on Friday," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Winter storm to bring wide variety of impacts
Meteorologists tend to look for a fresh injection of cold air when forecasting big snowstorms, and enough cold air will be in place later this week thanks to an area of high pressure to the north of the Upper Midwest and New England, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg. “It’s not the coldest air mass we have ever seen, but it is cold enough to get the job done,” he said.
This setup tends to allow warm air to surge northward, stay to the west of the Appalachians and reach parts of the Great Lakes. This will cause rain to soak the Ohio Valley and a wintry mix to transition to rain across portions of interstates 70 and 80 in Ohio and Indiana from late Thursday night to Friday.
A period of heavy snow will occur just north of where the warm air runs out of momentum. Snowfall rates for a time could reach 1-2 inches per hour, which is enough to challenge snow removal crews who will be working to keep roads open. The storm has the potential to unload 6-10 inches of snow on Chicago and bring 4-8 inches to Milwaukee, with 3-6 inches in Detroit.
At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists believe this will be the case around Chicago, with Detroit near the storm's southern edge Friday. However, any change in the storm's momentum or strength in the Midwest could cause the heavy snow band to shift farther to the north or south in the region.
People should expect impacts from a snowstorm Friday in Chicago, Detroit and Milwaukee, along with a large number of flight delays and cancellations in the major airport hubs.
The storm will add insult to injury over Michigan's Lower Peninsula, where 600,000 utility customers were without power at one point last week. As of Thursday morning, that number was down to around 22,700, according to PowerOutage.us.
In addition to problems from snow and/or a wintry mix over the northern tier, rain and fog will also contribute to delays on the highways and at the airports farther south.
"Near and just south of the heavy snow area, there is likely to be heavy rain," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis said. "Portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys may receive enough rain to trigger small stream and urban flooding from Thursday to Friday." A midweek storm will help to soak the ground in part of the region ahead of the larger storm.
As warm, moist air comes into contact with the cold ground and snow cover in some areas, it could lead to a proliferation of fog.
Forecasters say how quickly the secondary storm forms and strengthens over the Atlantic will determine how far the warm air from the south will extend into the Northeast Friday.
Because the coastal storm may be slow to organize and strengthen, relative to the New York metro area, there is likely to be a quick transition to a wintry mix and just rain by Friday night around the city's five boroughs. Snow amounts of a coating to perhaps 1 inch are projected for the New York metro area on Friday. The combination of slush and rain will be enough to slow travel and lead to airline delays.
Boston could receive 2-4 inches of snow, with heavier amounts to the north and west of the city from Friday afternoon to Saturday. Depending on how quickly the secondary storm forms along the coast, a wedge of cold air could keep snow going for a long period of time. If that occurs, snowfall could be double or triple the amount.
An atmospheric traffic jam, known as a Greenland block, has developed but it is not yet strong enough to strongly hold the cold air into the Northeast, Lundberg explained.
"This first allows the Midwest storm to pull warm air well to the north, not only in the Midwest but also in the Northeast. So there should be a much better chance of a change to rain or a wintry mix from much of Pennsylvania to the lower Hudson Valley of New York and across southern New England," he said.
The same complex storm system will lead to a new outbreak of severe weather for parts of the central and southern U.S. Thursday and Friday. The severe weather threat will include the possibility of tornadoes.
Stormy pattern to continue well into March
Just as a colder and stormier pattern brought the first widespread snowfall around New York City Monday and Tuesday, the storm late this week will continue that trend.
"The storm from Thursday to Friday in the Midwest and Northeast will accelerate the pattern change," Lundberg said. "By the middle of next week, the Greenland block will grow stronger, forcing a colder flow of air from the northwest over much of the country's eastern half."
Once the block strengthens, it could mean that warmups will be hard to come by moving forward during March, and perhaps April. More persistent cold air combined with storms may lead to more opportunities for snow.
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