Dangerous ice storm to persist across several states through Wednesday night
AccuWeather meteorologists say a storm will continue to bring an icy mix to the southern Plains and Ohio Valley through midweek.
A multiday ice storm that began unfolding across portions of Texas and Arkansas Monday has already turned deadly with fatal crashes occurring amid treacherous travel conditions. The threat for dangerous freezing rain and sleet will continue to extend over portions of the southern United States into early Thursday morning, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
A series of storms will take advantage of just enough cold air and ample moisture to produce a swath of ice that will stretch from the Rio Grande to parts of the Tennessee Valley into Wednesday night. Travel may become extremely dangerous in some areas, and trees and power lines may come crashing down as the ice buildup continues.
"This is round after round after round of dangerous ice that will be disrupting travel in a large part of the south-central United States," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.
Freezing rain is occurring because a shallow layer of cold air is hovering near the ground and moisture-rich air, from both the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, is streaming in above that. The storm setup may allow for breaks from the ice in some areas, but others may experience freezing rain continuously for as much as 24-48 hours.
"The worst ice conditions will likely continue to focus from near Auston to Waco and Tyler, Texas," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. It is possible that some locations within this zone may pick up a glaze between 0.50 and 0.75 of an inch, which can bring widespread tree damage and power outages.
The thicker the glaze, the more likely that trees will crash down and take power lines with them. Roads can be blocked in some areas, creating difficulty for crews attempting to restore power.
Another pocket where a thick ice buildup is possible will be from portions of central Arkansas to western Tennessee. Areas near or just west of Memphis, Tennessee, to around Little Rock and Texarkana, Arkansas is where 0.50 of an inch of ice or more may build up.
Some locations could be without power for an extended period due to the scope and magnitude of the damage to infrastructure.
In some cases, a thin glaze of ice can lead to dangerous travel conditions. In these situations, roads and sidewalks may appear just wet but may be covered with patches of clear ice. Often the first areas to become icy are elevated surfaces, such as bridges, overpasses and ramps. Also, areas that do not receive direct sunlight during the day can be colder than sun-exposed locations and may freeze first.
"Any type of paved surface can quickly become hazardous to travel on," Porter said. "Even if surfaces only look wet, it is best to err on the side of caution and travel with extreme caution, or defer traveling until the icing event has come to an end."
Sleet instead of freezing rain will continue to develop in some communities. Sleet can provide some traction at low-speed travel, but it bounces off of trees and power lines and causes a much lower risk of power outages, forecasters say.
Either way, with sleet or freezing rain, aircraft and runways will be coated with frozen precipitation. Airline passengers should expect lengthy flight delays and flight cancellations. Ripple-effect flight delays and cancellations will result at airport locations not being affected by the ice storm.
South of the storm train's icy zone will be rounds of drenching rain that can lead to localized urban and small stream flooding from near the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida to as far north as portions of the Interstate 40 corridor in Tennessee into Thursday.
Thunderstorms may not be limited to the immediate Gulf Coast during the storm train. Thunder and lightning can occur hundreds of miles north of the Gulf of Mexico, including in areas experiencing sleet and freezing rain.
A general 1-3 inches of rain will fall from southeastern Texas to parts of the Carolinas with locally higher amounts this week.
On Thursday, just enough chilly air may remain in place in parts of Arkansas and Tennessee for a wintry mix that includes some ice to occur. This could bring additional ice to Little Rock, Arkansas and Memphis, Tennessee. Temperatures from Nashville, Tennessee, eastward will likely be high enough to allow precipitation to fall as plain rain.
AccuWeather's long-range team of meteorologists expects the shallow layer of cold air responsible for the ice storm to erode soon after the storms depart later this week and weekend over the Central states. Much of February may bring above-average temperatures in the region.
However, a brief but intense batch of Arctic air associated with a fast-moving lobe of the polar vortex will pivot through the Northeastern states from Friday to Saturday with the lowest temperatures of the winter so far.
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