Building drought conditions will elevate the brush fire threat across the central and southern Plains through the weekend, but a pattern change may bring beneficial rain to parts of the region this week.

Sparse rainfall since September has led to a significant rise in moderate to extreme drought across the South Central states. Drought conditions expanded by 10 percent from Nov. 21 to Nov. 28, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

At the end of August, unusual dryness was mainly confined to southern Texas. The dry conditions have since spread to the north and east into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley.

The northern Plains have been dealing with a far worse drought since the summer.

Vegetation has dried out and become fuel for brush fires should a spark ignite.

Winds will increase early this week, further enhancing the risk of wildfire spread.

Avoid throwing lit or used cigarettes on the ground, outdoor burning and parking a car over dry brush as the hot exhaust system can be enough to trigger a spark.

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A major change in the weather pattern will offer some relief this week.

“At the leading edge of the cold shot spreading south and east next week, there might be an opportunity for some good soaking rain in areas from the central Plains through the Midwest next Monday and Tuesday,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jack Boston said.

Disruptive snow is also expected on the northwestern flank of the storm, while rain and thunderstorms will also spread into the lower Mississippi Valley.

The beneficial rain could come with the risk of locally severe thunderstorms given the strength of the invading chill. At this time, the greatest threat from any stronger storms will likely be damaging winds.

Dallas may receive its first measurable rainfall since Nov. 8 from Monday to Tuesday. Little Rock, Arkansas, has remained dry since Nov. 18, but will likely receive a thorough soaking during this time frame.

The dampened vegetation and cold air invasion will put an end to the brush fire risk for the remainder of the first week of December.

However, not all of the Plains will benefit from the wet weather preceding the early week cold shot. Rain and thunderstorms developing along the storm's cold front are expected to do so after the front crosses most of Kansas, western and central Oklahoma and western Texas.

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