Watching Typhoon Malakas
Meranti has weakened over land and is nothing more than a heavy rain threat for eastern China. Particularly in and around Shanghai through Saturday. The main story will shift to Typhoon Malakas over the next several days. Malakas has maximum sustained winds of 90 mph with gusts up to 115 mph. Malakas will head off to northwest over the next few days and strengthen. It will be equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by Friday into Saturday. The satellite image below shows where these features are at the moment.
What was formerly Meranti will cause periods of heavy rain for the Shanghai region through Saturday. Rain amounts will average 2.00-4.00 inches with locally higher amounts. Some flooding will likely occur, but the devastation done before this the previous days is done and over with. The graphic below shows the area where some flooding is going to happen.
Typhoon Malakas is expected to affect the eastern and northern part of Taiwan Friday into Saturday with rain and wind. Some winds in Taipei will reach 70-80 mph, while the far northeastern coast could exceed gusts over 100 mph. Rainfall will average a few inches with locally higher amounts along the eastern coast of Taiwan. Flooding and minor wind damage will be the extent of the impacts of Taiwan as this will be more of a glancing blow.
The forecasted track is shown below with the area of greatest impacts as well.
Malakas will turn northward on Sunday and make more of a northeasterly track on Monday. The weakening process will start at this time as well. The northern Ryukyus will feel impacts from Malakas, but the system is not that broad so most of the strongest winds will remain closest to its center. It will become a tropical storm by Monday night and Tuesday as it tracks into Kyushu Island in southern Japan Monday night into Tuesday, then journey into southern Honshu by later Tuesday. The main threat entering mainland Japan will be heavy rainfall and flooding. Several inches are possible during early next week. Minor wind damage is likely over Kyushu Island, but once again the system will be weakening by then.
The long range offer one more opportunity for a tropical depression to develop would be a weak feature northwest of the Northern Mariana Islands over the weekend. More than likely though, shear and Malakas will prevent it from really developing into anything significant so a low chance of development is appropriate. The long range graphic below shows where development is possible.
