Time is on farmers’ side, but history is not
The condition of corn rated “good” or “excellent" has been lower at the end of July only three times since 2000. (John Roach/AccuWeather)
The concern about crop yield this season is on the minds of many Corn Belt farmers, for obvious reasons.
“The biggest thing that’s going to weigh down the final production numbers is the lateness of the initial planting—and we all know that,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
Much like the weather this season, recent history is not kind to Corn Belt farmers when comparing current U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop data to those of the past.
The condition of corn rated “good” or “excellent,” at 58% as of the most recent Crop Progress, has been lower at the end of July only three times since 2000. And the yields those years were significantly below normal.
In 2012, the condition of corn rated “good” or “excellent” at the end of July was 26% – “there was a serious drought that year,” Nicholls said, and the output was 123.1 bushels per acre that year. In 2005, good- or excellent-rated corn was 53% and the output was 147.9 bushels per acre, and in 2002, it was 42% and the result was 129.3 bushels per acre.
For comparison, the bushels-per-acre output for 2018 was 176.4.
“It’s hard to get trend-line yields of bushels per acre when you planted so late in so many fields,” said Nicholls.
Last year at this time, good- or excellent-rated corn was 72% and soybeans were at 70%. Corn, as noted, is now at 58% and soybeans are at 54%. It’s the seventh straight week the figures have been below 60%.
The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress Monday afternoon. AccuWeather estimates the figures will remain largely unchanged from the current conditions.
There is no immediate weather help on the horizon, but things look more promising later in the month.
“The problem with the next week is rainfall in most areas will be a little bit below normal,” said Nicholls. “However, the week starting Aug. 12 has a chance to be closer to normal and so will the remainder of August.”
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