Summer 2015 Forecast

After some work behind the scenes with both Jason Nicholls, Eric Leister and Tyler Roys, we finally have our Europe forecast ready for the summer. We have several things that we are very confident on, and I want to bring those up over the next few paragraphs.

This graphic shows the overall outlook for Europe, and the ideas on what most people will be talking about this year. One of the big things I want to hit on is the cool, rainy area in extreme western Europe. Most of Spain and Portugal are lucky to see an inch of rain during the entire summer (June through August). Though we are looking at a more active pattern, this WILL NOT be enough to end the drought pattern we are in right now. This rain may be 150-200% above normal and still only be a few inches. Remember this when we say about things. Also, being more of a marine influence for the region, there may be more in the way of low clouds, fog and drizzle that help to keep things cooler there. This is also one area the analog years we used, 2003, 1987 and 1940, that seems to be a big difference between the overall pattern. Now, once you mention 2003 you think of the big heat wave where parts of Spain and France set record high temperatures. We are not saying it will be that extreme, but there will be times when the heat inland pushes to the coast. Generally, the summer looks to be below normal and a bit on the wetter side. And this is also due to some abnormally cold water just off the coastline, so that only looks to help things average colder.

One of the other things we are very confident about is the heat over the rest of the continent. It will struggle to be below normal most other locations and could average well above normal for the Balkans and into Italy. This heat looks to be the center of the heat for the summer, and with that area already seeing hot temperatures in a normal year, this could be a near-record breaking year for the area. The analogs show a very similar story, and in fact, most of the analogs show little more than a few areas even near normal. This is more to the same expectations of 2003, and 1987 had a ridge centered more over the central Mediterranean Sea, so it would not be a shock to have a more westward push of the ridge than we are expecting.

The summer temperatures forecast above shows what were are expecting. And the area that is near normal would not shock me to be slightly above normal with some short-lived heat waves around. The idea of a strong, summer-long heat wave seems a low chance, but if anyone could see something like that, it looks like the Balkans. And those were the areas that were actually wet and close to normal over the winter.

Above is the precipitation pattern for the summer. Notice there is very little area that is listed as above normal. It does look like the active weather along the western coast will keep Portugal and western Spain active and Scotland into northern Ireland wet, but the ridge will be tricky to push well south, so we will see some more active weather over northeastern Europe with the storm track being around that region for the summer. It would not shock me if that wet area was even smaller, but it does look like the severe weather threat over Germany into Poland is the reason we may average near normal there.

That severe weather threat will mostly be from hail and heavy rainfall, but there could be some stronger thunderstorms with wind and even a few tornadoes. I do believe there will be a more significant severe weather threat with the hot air to the south and the wet weather off to the north, so this may be a season that starts early as it has with the tornado early this week over Germany and just continues through much of the summer. I would be concerned the severe weather season will average above normal, and there also should be some more in the way of thunderstorms around the region listed above.

So, overall, a warm to even hot look for much of the continent, and generally dry with the exception of the Atlantic coast and into northeast Europe.

Look global, Forecast local

Report a Typo