Rest of Winter and Spring 2016 Forecast

1. More wetness than dryness across the nation.

2. Severe weather slow again to start but increases in frequency and coverage during the season. Active southern jet stream through the spring as El Nino lingers can create multiple outbreaks.

3. During the late February and early March, there can be a period of stormy and cold weather across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Then a rebound will occur. However, easterly flow events are possible to hold back temperatures in the mid-Atlantic and parts of New England. One or two severe weather outbreaks possible in May for this area.

4. Southeast looks wet overall, much different than last year which will hold back the heat. Flooding is a risk throughout the wpring. Strong thunderstorm events can move through the region on a frequent basis.

5. The Southwest and much of the West Coast remains wet through much of the spring. Heaviest rainfall will occur in March. Frequency and intensity of storms will ease back late spring; however, monthly rainfall normals drop significantly late spring and can be reached and surpassed easier.

6. Interior Northwest will be one of the two drier spots for the nation this spring. There will be a few chilly periods due to the southern track of storms, but the milder nights and milder surges should outweigh the cooldowns.

7. The Rockies will continue to get their share of storms. Flooding is a risk for the Southwest and across parts of the central Rockies. Snow will continue to be heavy in early spring but cannot be ruled in late May as well.

8. The central and southern Plains will continue to be impacted by either storms pulling out of the Southwest or fronts moving out of the central Rockies. Not all storms will be extreme events, but there can be a few heavy systems with severe weather. Snowfall can still occur in north-central areas of the Plains, perhaps through April.

9. Last highlight is more positive than negative. We see more pleasant and dry days compared to wet and cool days in the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this spring.

Looking at the three-month temperature and precipitation maps compared to last year, we see differences showing up for both temperatures and precipitation. The Northeast can be warmer this spring compared to last year with a better turnaround in the early spring. The Southeast may be cooler, but not actually cool. Soil moisture can be the cause of the cooler temperatures compared to last year. The West as well may fall short of last year's temperatures with frequent cool fronts arriving on shore with rain leading to drastic changes in soil moisture.

As far as precipitation, Texas had its wettest spring last year, especially during the second half of the season with massive flooding. Texas will be wet again this spring, but not to the record levels of last year. However, there still can be some flooding events. Look at the difference in the West and Northwest. It will not be as dry as last spring that led to an early start to the fire season. This year, soil moisture has changed with some improvement to the long-term drought in California. More rain is expected in the spring. The early-year drought in the Northeast that led to early heat last year may not be extreme this year. In fact, we see drier conditions centered more over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this spring.

1. We feel that a surge of cold, stormy weather will return to the East in late February and the start of March basing our ideas on the trend of the MJO. However, this signal does not have high skill past 10 days. So, we are pushing out this idea, but with lower confidence. Yet the significant warming over the pole around Feb. 8 could drive cold into the pattern for the second half of February into the start of March. This far out to determine how cold and where exactly is tough, but it can impact March temperatures.

2. We still feel that central and northern areas of California into Oregon by the end of the wet season will be the hardest hit on the West Coast overall. We feel the rainfall and snowfall will help short-term drought problems, but the long-term drought will still persist.

3. Severe weather can be all over the place by late spring. We did not draw a map based on these ideas, but in the text, we try to emphasize areas more prone and for certain periods of the spring.

We made some changes for the East based on the recent storm and what we can expect going forward; the potential for another one or two systems before the end of February. We did take Washington, D.C., New York City and Philadelphia areas up, also in the western Carolinas. It only takes one big storm to reach near normal in some of the big East Coast cities and two to reach above. If you go back to 1982/83 El Nino season, Philadelphia snowfall totals were in the 30s with one major blizzard in February and a couple of smaller systems. We could be on track with this pace.

February in the East could be a month where most of the early systems are wet or lead to some ice, while the second half of the month into the start of March can have more cold and the possibility of another big storm. This makes the corridor from Philadelphia northeast to Boston still at risk. From this far out, it is difficult to determine whether the next big storm will be all snow or mix to rain or will get the high totals.

We reduced the below-normal snowfall area across Kentucky and Tennessee, and in some parts, adding an above-normal area. This past event has brought them to normal to above-normal snowfall for the season. Chicago is already close to our prediction and with more opportunities in the second half of winter and early spring. We need to watch this area carefully.

Overall, the West snowfall forecast is good, but we had to shift the much above farther south in the Southwest. Also the Northwest has received more snow than expected which includes western Oregon and Washington. This was taken up. The West could get snow later than normal in some areas, perhaps all the way into early June.

Therefore, we have highlighted this area as a slow transition into spring. In fact, there may not be much of a spring for portions of the Rockies. The Southwest return of heat may be slower. Wetness can play a big factor in Texas late spring on the warmup as well. However, the nights may become warmer with higher humidity levels expected from mid-spring and beyond.

1. March could again be a volatile month for the Southeast, Middle Atlantic and Northeast early. Cold and snow could link up early before the pattern returns to a more zonal (west to east flat flow pattern) which results in milder and weaker impacts systems for the north. We saw this occur in 1983. The question is the transition. (Moderate confidence)

2. Still, temperatures in the Northeast should recover more quickly compared to previous two years, especially later in the month; February snowpack will decide. (Moderate confidence)

3. Drier-than-normal in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and interior Northwest only, but most of the country will be wet. Temperatures will also run above normal in the dry areas around the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. (Moderate to high confidence)

4. Rainfall may continue to be above to much above normal across California and the Southwest, similar to 1983 and 1998. There will continue to be a risk for flooding, landslides and mudslides. (Moderate to high confidence)

5. Frequent steady/heavy rain events Southeast to New England. Due to wet conditions in previous months, the risk of flooding is a concern, especially Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Snow is more likely for interior sections of the Northeast. Right now, we have week one as a period to watch. (Moderate confidence)

6. The Northwest will still have fronts and some rain. Precipitation will run below normal in the interior Northwest and northern Rockies. The region should have a decent start to spring. However, we have been trending wetter for this area since October. California still looks wet with more flooding possible. Snow will be heavier in the mountains, which will help with short-term drought conditions heading through the spring and early summer. (Moderate confidence)

7. It will be a slow start to spring in the southern Plains: coolness and dampness could lead to planting delays. The South and Southeast can have a slow start due to wetness. The Northeast will not be as quick as earlier thinking on the turnaround, but faster than last year. (Moderate confidence)

8. Severe weather season will be slow to start again with slightly below-normal tornado totals for March. Florida and central Texas could be most active regions in March. In Texas, if dew points rise and storms keep moving across this area, it can be quite active for central and eastern areas throughout the month. Watch for a pick up later in the month in the central and eastern Plains and the mid-Mississippi Valley on south. (Moderate confidence)

1. Storms tracking from Southwest to Plains should lead to an increase severe weather central/southern Plains, Mississippi Valley into Midwest. (Moderate confidence)

2. Severe weather widespread with multiple outbreaks similar to what occurred in 1998 in the Tennessee Valley, Southeast and Middle Atlantic. Fronts will survive to the East. Warmer air can help fuel these storms. Forecast models and analogs show above-normal precipitation in the East. (Moderate confidence)

3. Severe weather events can turn into flooding events along the Gulf Coast states during the month. The CFS and NMME are slightly drier for the central and western Gulf Coast compared to the European and 1983 analog. So I will keep a lower risk here. (Moderate confidence)

4. I am still very concerned for flooding along the Mississippi River in the spring, especially here in April. With more rain events, possibly intense at times. Snow melt could lead to more issues. However, if less snow, then less snow melt, less additional water which is a positive for this scenario. (Moderate) 5. Early-month snow potential high southern/central Rockies as storms develop and cut through the Southwest into the Plains. Temperatures could be chillier than what we have. (Moderate confidence)

6. Drier pockets in the northern Plains and Northwest with milder-than-normal temperatures across northern tier of the nation. (Moderate to high confidence)

7. Not anticipating any prolonged extreme early warmth for cooling product sales across country, but there can be occasional mild surges in the north. Early season heat waves in early spring across the Plains appear unlikely following strong El Nino winters. Watch for higher humidity levels over the mid and lower Mississippi Valley leading to milder nights. (Moderate confidence)

8. Cold fronts, followed by easterly flow events can lead to occasional damp, dreary days holding back temperatures, especially in the mid-Atlantic; departures will be higher in northern areas away from east flow events. (Moderate to high confidence)

1. Widespread flooding with 15-20 inches of rain occurred last May from Oklahoma City to Dallas, Texas. Areas that have a higher chance for flooding in May is the Southeast, interior Southwest and west Texas. We do not expect the same type of flooding that occurred last year but still can be damaging. (Moderate confidence)

2. Severe weather widespread across the nation with occasional outbreaks likely, expanding south to north in the Plains and Midwest. Hail count can be higher this season; tornado count can be lower than last May but still slightly above average. Events can spread toward Northeast and mid-Atlantic seen in past analog years. Florida's severe weather threat may ease. (Moderate confidence)

3. Drought developed in the Northeast last May and early summer heat came on strong for a time. This area may be located this year over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley here in May. Watch for some early heat in this region. Drought percentage will be smaller across the nation this spring compared to last. So widespread heat is not expected; in fact, the Southwest may run behind on temperatures. (Moderate to high confidence)

4. Big cities around the Great Lakes will have nice weather for outdoor projects and early planting; mild temperatures, frequent sunshine and cooler nights northern Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley to Northeast. (Moderate confidence)

5. Right now, low risk for any late season frost across the country. The central Plains to the Midwest would have a higher chance. (Low confidence)

6. Lower chance for early tropical impact on U.S due to lag in El Nino pattern; we have to watch stalled fronts in the South. This does not mean something could try to develop early in the Caribbean or Gulf. (Low to moderate confidence)

The graph above is the updated IRI (International Research Institute) outlook on ENSO. Early in January, there was a westerly burst that moved across into the central Pacific. This burst weaken the lower-level easterlies which shut down any cooling of the waters in the eastern Pacific from upwelling. This allowed warmer water below the surface to rise. This warming may turn out to be the key factor for a record El Nino this year (going back since 1950). We will not know the answer until next month's three-month average is recorded.

The forecast is for El Nino to weaken quickly as the low-level easterlies increase again leading to significant cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Both statistical and dynamic models feel that by late spring or early summer we should be already in neutral conditions. El Nino conditions can still lag, especially here in North America which means that the southern jet stream should remain active throughout the spring.

However, looking farther out is what gets interesting. The statistical models (light green average line) and dynamical models (yellow average line) diverge. The statistical models are not as extreme on the change, slower toward La Nina holding back the chances of a start time until mid- to late fall. However, the dynamical models show mid- to late summer on the change and a moderate to strong La Nina next winter. This can lead to a completely different winter next year which we will not go into on this forecast.

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