East and West Map Disco's, Plus Long Range

THE NEXT 5-15 DAYS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST FORECASTING I HAVE DONE SINCE 2005-2006 WINTER.

Note: The long range includes the East and West...

I want to clarify a point about the winter weather pattern. The GFS model for the storm on the 17th that I have been showing is an illustration of what the weather pattern can yield when the clash of extremes occurs. Given the NAO is going negative and PNA is going positive, I am looking at the East Coast as the place where the storm might develop. The EURO has now gone to that solution as well, while the GFS is starting its usual Cha Cha Cha of storm positions.

In the meantime, we have cold air across the northern tier of the country, while warm air stretches across the South. The zone between the two, which we are seeing already from the Southwest to the Ohio Valley, is where that clash is already taking place. Along that boundary, the next five days will have rain, snow and ice, and trying to figure out the details is what I was referring to as tough forecasts. I do think that parts of the Plains from Nebraska to Kansas will have some nasty weather in the form of snow and ice, and next week, that area of snow and ice will move eastward.

In the West, the tough forecasts include Salt Lake City, where sneaky cold air is coming in from the northeast, which should turn the rain over to snow. Flagstaff, I think you have to wait until this weekend before snow develops there.

In the short range, the snow coming through Ohio and Pennsylvania is starting to peter out as it hits the Appalachians. There will be pockets of heavy snow moving through western and northern Pennsylvania through early afternoon but, overall, the trend will be for the snow to weaken.

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