Check out the Video about the GFS Model.
MODEL PROBLEMS START AS WINTER NEARS...
I wanted to show a good example of model mayhem. This is the GFS 500 mb chart from 00z last evening and 6z this morning. The model at 00z shows an intense trough in the Mississippi Valley, while six hours later, the model run shows no trough and an upper-level low in the Rockies. The implications are huge. In the first case, folks in the Midwest and Ohio Valley would have a major severe weather outbreak, while in the second case, the weather would be warm and not too bad. This is just the sort of model mayhem we will face this winter. I am not sure why things like this happen, but it does and it had major implications on forecasts, especially in the longer range during critical weather situations.
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