Caribbean, East Atlantic may spawn tropical threats in coming days

There is the potential for two tropical systems, one in the Atlantic and one in the Caribbean, to slowly develop and drift westward this week.

The next two names on the list of tropical storms in the Atlantic for 2017 are Franklin and Gert.

Residents and those planning vacations around the Caribbean should closely monitor the weather and forecasts.

Up to this point in the season, there have been extensive areas of dry air and Saharan dust as well as a large zone of strong westerly winds aloft. These factors act as a strong deterrent toward tropical storm formation and can bring an early demise to well-developed tropical storms and hurricanes.

Conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for development in the tropical Atlantic with dry air, dust and strong winds aloft on the retreat. Waters are sufficiently warm over the region.

One system, dubbed 90L, is churning over the central Caribbean Sea and is the more immediate concern of the two.

"The system is beginning to show signs of organization and may develop into a tropical depression or storm prior to grazing the coast near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua later this weekend or the Yucatan Peninsula later on Monday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski said.

"It is possible that 90L maintains a more westward track, which would take it farther into Central America to end the weekend. That would end the potential for development."

Regardless of development, locally flooding downpours, gusty winds and rough seas will accompany the system.

Localized flooding downpours may spread over Jamaica on Sunday. The nations of southern Central America may also face isolated flooding into Monday as tropical moisture streams toward 90L.

Flooding rain, damaging winds and dangerous seas will increase around 90L if it strengthens.

"It is possible that 90L emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at midweek, where further strengthening may occur before it tracks onto the eastern coast of Mexico around Thursday," Pydynowski said. "If strengthening occurs, residents in the path of 90L would face a period of flooding rain and damaging winds."

The system farthest away from North America, dubbed 99L, has the potential to gradually develop this week.

The system has failed to organize into a depression but has the potential to do so as it tracks westward across the open waters of the Atlantic.

"The system is over the warm waters of the Atlantic and not being affected by disruptive winds," Pydynowski said. "The main inhibitor that it has to work against is some dry, stable air."

If 99L develops and/or survives, then it is likely to approach the Windward and Leeward islands during the middle part of the week. Parts of these islands are likely to experience an uptick in showers and thunderstorms at the very least during that time.

The exact track of 99L in relation to the proximity to the islands will depend on how quickly the system strengthens. A weak and poorly organized system is more likely to track to the west. A developed system is more likely to track north of west.

"Even if 99L develops and strengthens over the central Atlantic Ocean, that trend may end or reverse later in the week," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio said. "The system may encounter stronger winds aloft and/or track close enough to the mountainous Greater Antilles."

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