Asia winter forecast: Life-threatening flooding may unfold in Southeast as snow buries northern areas

Heavy rain and tropical storms will threaten parts of southeastern Asia while rounds of heavy snow ramp up in northern Asia and part of the Middle East during the winter of 2017-18.

Weak La Niña conditions are anticipated by AccuWeather meteorologists this winter.

La Niña is part of a routine cycle of water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

La Niña to impact rainfall and typhoon activity

The La Niña pattern is likely to produce warmer-than-average waters around Malaysia and Indonesia, and may have some serious consequences for the region.

"The pattern will lead to above-average rainfall in part of Malaysia and Indonesia and could lead to isolated incidents of severe flooding and put lives at risk," according to AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

La Niña is also likely to keep the typhoon season going through the winter.

"Areas at greatest risk for strikes from tropical storms and/or typhoons include the Philippines and southeastern Asia in general this winter," Nicholls said.

The storms are generally forecast to curve well east of Japan and activity overall will gradually diminish later in the season.

Farther west, over part of the Indian Ocean, "there may still be a threat from a couple of tropical storms or cyclones across far southern India and Sri Lanka to open the season," Nicholls said.

Rounds of rain from the northeast monsoon are likely to abruptly end in southern India during December.

Snow to pile up in northern Asia, part of Middle East

Farther north and west, an active storm track and significant cold will lead to many rounds of snow across Siberia. Winter may waste no time getting a foothold in these areas and across northeastern China.

"We expect cold shots to be frequent and accompanied by some snow in northeastern China, the Korean Peninsula and northern Japan, especially during the early and middle part of the winter," Nicholls said.

Early estimates on winter snowfall include 12-25 cm (5-10 inches) in Seoul, South Korea, and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) in Beijing, China.

Snowfall and rain will tend to diminish substantially from north to south across Japan with up to 5 cm (2 inches) in Tokyo. The city typically receives 10-12 cm (4-5 inches) of snow on average.

"Snowfall is likely to be above average and contribute to a deep snow pack in Siberia and part of Kazakhstan," Nicholls said.

As the cold and snow pack build in Siberia, the active storm track will allow the cold air to push farther to the southwest.

"Cold air is likely to make significant inroads into western Russia and the Caspian and Black Sea regions as the winter progresses," Nicholls said.

"Following a dry start, rounds of heavy sea-effect snow are likely across portions of Turkey and northern Iran during the middle to latter part of the winter," Nicholls said.

This type of snowfall can lead to great variation in travel conditions with some communities being hit with heavy snow, while other areas a few kilometers miles away may receive no snow from one round to the next.

"Some cold air may reach into Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Cyprus and the northern part of Saudi Arabia," Nicholls said.

"Some rain and snow is forecast for the northern parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan and India."

Air to stagnate, raise health issues in parts of India and Pakistan

A little rain may fall as far south as southern Iran; however, much of the area from the Arabian Peninsula to southern and eastern Pakistan is likely to be drier and warmer than average this winter, since the main storm track will hold up farther north.

"Like many winters, air stagnation and poor air quality will lead to periodic, significant buildups of smog across the valleys of eastern Pakistan and northern India," Nicholls said.

At times, the smog may be so bad as to threaten lives.

Elsewhere, much of western China and over much of the Yangtze River Valley can expect some opportunities for rain and snow in December; however, these areas will trend drier, as is usually the case with limited cold waves.

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