2018 Canada spring forecast: Plentiful snow to extend ski season in West; Ontario, Quebec on alert for flooding

Ontario and Quebec will face the risk of flooding this spring as an active weather pattern spreads rain and snow across the region on a regular basis.

Meanwhile, chilly air will linger in the Canadian Prairies as storms slam the Rockies with late-season snow.

Spring storms to bring chilly air, flood risk to Ontario and Quebec

An active weather pattern this spring will promote cool and unsettled weather across the Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence River Valley.

“The primary storm track is expected to be directed up into the Great Lakes region, which will lead to a higher number of days with rain or snow for much of Ontario and western Quebec,“ AccuWeather Canadian Weather Expert Brett Anderson said.

The stormy weather pattern, melting snow and saturated ground will lead to the increased risk of flooding across Ontario and Quebec throughout the spring, he said.

Areas along rivers and streams will also be at risk of flooding from ice jams.

“This pattern will also lead to more cloudier and cooler days compared to normal during the season. This includes the cities of Thunder Bay, Windsor, Toronto and Ottawa,” Anderson said.

The above-normal ice cover on the Great Lakes may also be a contributing factor in the cool conditions this spring.

While a cool, cloudy and unsettled spring is on tap for much of Ontario and Quebec, milder weather is predicted for the Maritimes.

“The combination of the storm track and above-normal ocean water temperatures will lead to a slightly milder spring compared to normal from Nova Scotia to Newfoundland, including the cities of Halifax and St. John’s,” Anderson said.

Winter chill to linger in the Prairies

The cold weather experienced across the Canadian Prairies during the second half of this winter will linger into the spring before sustained warmth arrives.

Since the first day of winter, temperatures have averaged around 3 degrees C (5 F) below normal in Calgary, Winnipeg and Edmonton. This below-average chill is expected to continue through the first half of spring.

“The slow warmup, reduced snowpack and drier-than-normal conditions will likely result in a below-average risk for significant spring flooding across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba,” Anderson said.

While the risk of flooding will be low, there is the potential for drought conditions to worsen throughout the season.

The most recent report from the Canada Drought Monitor classifies much of the southern Prairies in a moderate to severe drought. This includes areas around Calgary, Edmonton, Regina and Winnipeg.

A dry spring could make drought conditions worse heading into the summer.

Storms to deliver heavy rain and mountain snow to western Canada

Throughout the spring, waves of storms will continue to impact western Canada, spreading heavy rain and mountain snow.

“March and April look cool and wet compared to normal across southwestern British Columbia, including the Vancouver area,” Anderson said.

This will follow a wet winter in Vancouver, where rainfall was nearly 150 percent of normal.

“However, this pattern should reverse by May with noticeably warmer and drier weather,“ Anderson said.

As wet weather soaks the coast, storms will deliver plentiful snow to the Rocky Mountains.

“This [pattern] will favor an extended ski season across much of western Canada with more opportunities for significant snowfall in the Rockies and Coastal Range into April,” Anderson said.

This will benefit the skiing industry as resorts will be able to remain open later into the season, attracting skiers from elsewhere in North America.

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