Wintry rebound in Northeast to be followed by Midwest warmup
Conditions from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast over the next week will be a prime example of spring where winter tries to hang on and summer tries to gain a foothold in some areas.
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Colder air is pushing across parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast in the wake of a storm that started the week. However, AccuWeather meteorologists say that while warm air will push back over the Midwest, it could meet some resistance in part of the Northeast later this week and the upcoming weekend. But, where the warm air arrives, it may get incredibly warm.
Generally speaking, spring is a battle between two seasons—winter trying to hang on and summer trying to gain a foothold. Conditions from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast over the next week will be a prime example.
Overall, March has delivered temperatures well above the historical average. Winter's grip began to loosen toward the end of February, and the season has been struggling ever since—aside from the continued frequency of windy days and snow across the northern tier.
For example, in Pittsburgh, temperatures have averaged nearly 8 degrees above what is typical so far this month. There has been a day here and there with below-average temperatures, and despite the predominant weather, from 3-4 inches of snow has fallen. The city managed to bunch a couple of chilly days together over the weekend, with another chilly day forecast for Wednesday.
This same sort of pattern will continue over much of the Northeast through midweek.
Showers of snow and rain will be scattered about from the northern and eastern Great Lakes to the northern and central Appalachians through Wednesday. Most of these showers will not accumulate; however, a small, slushy accumulation is possible where snow persists for more than a few minutes, mainly over the higher elevations.
Where the snow showers wander across the highways, sudden dangerous conditions can occur with a drastic drop in visibility and slippery conditions that leads to brake checks, then chain-reaction accidents.
A small storm will tag along in the chilly pattern. It streaked southeastward across the Ohio Valley Tuesday and then turned eastward over the central Appalachians during Tuesday night and will move off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday.
In much of this zone, despite some chilly air, the atmosphere will be too warm for snow. However, it can be cold enough for some wet snowflakes or a mixture of rain and snow for a time over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
After Wednesday, the chilly air in the Northeast will begin a slow northward retreat.
The biggest surge of warmth will be across the Plains and Mississippi Valley from late this week to the weekend. By the weekend, that warmth will spill east of the Appalachians in full force from the lower part of the mid-Atlantic to the south.
"Some locations from the central United States to the East, probably near and south of the Maryland and Delaware borders, have the potential to come close to or exceed their highest temperatures so far this season," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines said.
A very dramatic temperature difference is forecast to set up in the Northeast this weekend. In a difference of a couple dozen miles, temperatures may vary from north to south, east to west, by 30-50 degrees Fahrenheit. Based on the latest information, temperature forecasts in this zone could dramatically change from one day to the next.
In the Midwest, Nashville has reached 80 degrees on both March 13 and 14. Temperatures may approach 80 once again Friday. In the East, Richmond, Virginia, reached 77 F Thursday, March 20. Temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 70s to near 80 this weekend.
"A few spots could even challenge daily record highs where the sun is out most of the day," Kines said, "But more importantly is that the warmth will carry over into all or part of the weekend in the East, where such conditions have been very limited so far. This may allow millions to get outside and enjoy it who have had little opportunity to do so."
The warmth may not be able to stick around for very long over the northern tier of the Midwest, much of New England and some coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic. As a large storm forms over the Central states this weekend, a swath of wintry mix or wet snow is likely to extend near the Canada border of the Midwest and perhaps farther to the south into New England.
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