Warmth to build from Midwest to Northeast ahead of late-week coastal storm
Unseasonable temperatures will surge in the Midwest and make for a notable change in the Northeast, as well as allow for ideal travel conditions — but that will change as two weather features converge on the region.
A rainstorm tracking up the East Coast will spread heavy rain over part of the region following a spell of unseasonable warmth.
Record-challenging warmth gripping the Midwest will expand across the Northeast this week, AccuWeather meteorologists say. The warm November weather could provide any early holiday travelers ideal conditions for their trips ahead of a rainstorm that will track from the South to the East Coast late this week.
Midwest: highs to climb above average, challenge records in spots
Temperatures will trend into the 60s and 70s F over much of the Plains and Midwest through the first half of this week. Even along the northern tier of the Midwest, highs in the 50s are in store.
"Over much of the central U.S., highs will be 10-20 degrees above the historical average," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
Increasing winds from the southwest will help to usher in the warmer air and lead to other issues such as an elevated fire risk over the parched region. Not to mention, the gusty breeze could cause some headaches and make leaf cleanup a challenge.
A change in the winds behind a weather feature will also be responsible for trimming the unseasonable warmth.
"A cold front will put an end to this warm spell by Thursday over parts of the northern Plains and on Friday in much of the rest the Midwest," Anderson said.
Northeast: late-week warmup coming ahead of coastal storm
Farther to the east, a dip in the jet stream will allow cooler air to push southeastward from Canada before a substantial warmup for the latter part of the week.
This cool flow will help to keep most areas a few degrees shy of the historical average through midweek. Highs daily will range from the mid-30s in northern Maine to the upper 50s in southeastern Virginia.
An area of high pressure, which has been the culprit behind unseasonably cold nights across the Northeast, will finally shift off the coast starting around midweek, according to Anderson.
Temperatures will trend upward beginning on Wednesday along the western slopes of the Appalachians and around the eastern Great Lakes. On Thursday, that warmup will progress across the Appalachians and reach the Interstate 95 corridor and the East Coast.
On Thursday and Friday, highs will be in the lower 60s in New York City. In Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., highs will be well into the 60s. By Friday, temperatures are forecast to top 60 in Boston and climb well into the 50s in coastal Maine and along the northern tier of New England.
"At this level, highs in much of the Northeast will be 10-15 degrees above the historical average later this week," Anderson said.
The region will not be basking in dry and warm conditions like the Midwest as a storm drenching the Gulf Coast will likely reorganize and make a northward run along the Eastern Seaboard at week's end.
Extent of rain from late-week coastal storm still up for debate
As the Southern storm redevelops just east of Florida late Thursday or Friday, a large mass of tropical moisture will shift northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
"A strong cold front moving into the East by the end of the week will likely pick up the storm and draw it quickly northeastward as it strengthens over the warm Gulf Stream waters just off the East Coast," Anderson said.
This does not look like a full-fledged tropical system but more of a nor'easter or perhaps a hybrid storm, with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics.
The speed with which the front merges with the storm will likely determine the proximity of the storm's track to the East Coast, the extent of drenching rainfall and how far inland it spreads.
At this point, it appears that the storm has the potential to bring a period of heavy rain and gusty winds for central and eastern New England from late Friday night to Saturday night.
"Farther west from Friday to Saturday, there will be a second zone of rain or showers over the interior Northeast associated with the Midwest cold front as it pushes toward the Atlantic coast," Anderson said.
Temperatures will drop in areas that pick up rainfall both along the coast and inland from the two systems on Thursday. Areas where rain will hold off for a time ahead of the cold front, especially near the coast, will experience the peak in temperatures on Friday and Saturday.
For those relishing the warmer November weather, a change in the pattern could provide a reality check. A period of substantially cold weather is likely this weekend to early next week, with the potential for some lake-effect snow for parts of the interior. That will occur as the jet stream dips after the cold front and coastal storm depart.
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