Torrential downpours continue along Gulf coast, with tropical trouble lurking
Many in Florida and along the Gulf coast have experienced wet and drenching times as of late, with warm and humid air helping fuel rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms in the area. AccuWeather forecasters say that more of the same is in store early week, with another dose of tropical rainfall possible from a disturbance in the Gulf.
While some locations in the Southeast missed out on the weekend's heavy rain, other locations ended up being thoroughly drenched as thunderstorms quickly developed. Florida was the state hardest hit by the rainfall, as sea breezes allowed for particularly intense storms to develop.
The Orlando area was especially hard hit over the weekend, with over 3 inches of rain reported in many spots. Daytona Beach, Florida, was especially hard hit as well, with 1.95 inches of rain reported in the city. This rain was more than enough to postpone the Coke Zero 400 due to wet conditions. While the race managed to happen on Sunday, additional showers arrived by early afternoon, likely playing a role in a major crash that took place toward the conclusion of the race.
Heavy rain wasn't entirely limited to Florida. Montgomery, Alabama, and New Orleans both picked up around an inch of rain on Saturday as heavy storms swept through.
Going forward, the concerns for heavy rain are likely to continue the early part of this week.
"With a boundary stalled across the Gulf Coast region, and with a rich supply of moisture streaming northward, it will not take much at all for storms to develop throughout each day," Buckingham added.
Those in the southeastern United States are no strangers to thunderstorms and heavy rain; however, issues can arise quickly after multiple days of such conditions. In a process known as training, heavy thunderstorms can track repeatedly over the same areas, turning manageable rainfall amounts into a flooding deluge.
Those traveling early week may want to allow for extra time when driving through the poor weather conditions, including downpours that may reduce visibility and cause ponding. Drivers should never attempt to drive through flooded roadways, as the water may be substantially deeper than it appears or could have completely washed away the road.
The rounds of heavy rain are fortunately forecast to avoid areas that are still recovering from last week's deadly floods. Jackson, Mississippi, and Dallas both received substantial flooding when over 10 inches of rain fell in many areas.
As the week progresses, showers and thunderstorms will continue to be in the forecast for the Gulf Coast. However, less moisture is expected to stream up from the Gulf of Mexico, meaning downpours should be more isolated and generally less intense.
Additionally, there are some hints of tropical trouble on the horizon for the area.
As of Monday morning, all appeared quiet in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. While areas of cloud cover and thunderstorms are present as usual, nothing appears out of the ordinary. AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring an area where this could soon change.
A tropical wave will continue to make its way across the Caribbean Sea this week. As it does so, it is expected to encounter an area of strong wind shear. An area of stronger wind shear, which is the change of wind direction as you go up in the atmosphere, makes it hard for a tropical system to organize and strengthen.
"As long as wind shear remains strong, that system is unlikely to develop. But, if wind shear drops off later in the week near the Yucatan Peninsula, it is possible for a system to organize over the northwestern Caribbean and then track into the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Regardless of the eventual outcome, the tropical wave is likely to bring a surge in tropical moisture to the Yucatan Peninsula late in the week and some of that moisture could be drawn northward into the United States for the Labor Day weekend.
The system could have a second chance at development, but not in the Caribbean or Gulf.
"There is a significant chance that some of the energy and moisture from the Caribbean tropical waves spawns development in the eastern Pacific this weekend," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. "That system, perhaps as a tropical storm or hurricane, could turn northward toward Mexico's Baja California Peninsula and from there, moisture could be flung into the southwestern U.S. during the second week of September."
There were a couple of other areas in the tropical Atlantic that AccuWeather meteorologists were monitoring for development this week. If the development of a tropical depression were to wait until at least Thursday, the month of August would go without any tropical depressions, storms, or hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. This would be remarkably rare, having occurred just a handful of other times.
AccuWeather's team of long-range meteorologists, led by Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, continues to warn that despite the sleepy nature of the Atlantic much of this season thus far, conditions can and are likely to change in a hurry. AccuWeather meteorologists are projecting a total of 16 named storms, with six to eight of them becoming hurricanes.
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