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Soupy weather on the menu for first full week of October

By Jessica Storm, AccuWeather Meteorologist

Updated Oct 5, 2021 6:08 AM EDT

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Heavy rain in a short amount of time put roads underwater in Houston, Texas, causing problems for drivers.

Heavy rain has been haunting the central United States over the past week, flooding areas from Houston to Little Rock, Arkansas. This week, the same stormy weather is headed toward the Southeast.

Flash flood warnings were issued as heavy thunderstorms lashed at the Little Rock area on Saturday night, causing streets to fill with and nearly covering bridges in water across the metro. In a matter of hours, over an inch of rain had fallen in the city and other areas of the region. Farther south, flood warnings were in effect around the rivers of eastern Texas and western Louisiana.

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Flooding roads were reported across Walker County in Alabama on Sunday evening, and heavy rain fell in Starkville, Mississippi.

As the rain and thunderstorms shifted east through the start of the week, the heaviest rain set up over the Southeast. On Monday morning, flash flood warnings were in effect for the Alabama Gulf Coast and western Florida Panhandle. Pensacola, Florida recorded 8.23 inches of rain on Monday, including 2.59 inches in just one hour, right before midnight.

We are getting hammered with weather related calls because of #flooding conditions in #Destin.  This vehicle is located on Commons Drive near Bed Bath and Beyond.  The road is currently closed due to flooding.  Please use extra caution on the roads!! 💦⛈💦⭐️@NWSMobile pic.twitter.com/yTAe2uzHLG

— OkaloosaSheriff (@OCSOALERTS) October 4, 2021

Flood watches extended northward through Alabama and Georgia.

"Training rain and thunderstorms are likely to target these areas through much of Tuesday, leading to water-covered roadways and slowed travel," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis.

Showers and thunderstorms can continue in cities like New Orleans; Nashville, Tennessee; Montgomery, Alabama; and Atlanta as the front plods through the Southeast, and extend as far as Charlotte, North Carolina, and Tallahassee, Florida.

A slow-moving storm is the culprit and associated cold front are to blame for much of the rounds of rain and thunderstorms as the week progresses.

"While not expected to turn severe, these thunderstorms can still produce heavy downpours which can lead to flash flooding," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva. Flash flooding occurs within six hours of heavy or excessive rainfall, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

This kind of phenomenon is even more likely to occur in places where soil is already saturated, like New Orleans, which received 184% of average rainfall throughout the month of September, when Hurricane Nicholas dumped rain on the area. Even farther north in Nashville, 118% of average rainfall fell last month, and coastal cities like Charleston, South Carolina, had 121% of average.

"By Tuesday, a dip in the jet stream over Arkansas and Mississippi will help to enhance precipitation across the Southeast," said DaSilva.

This dip is expected to help draw significant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast, resulting in even more flooding concerns. Soupy conditions are in the works across the region as this humid air mass reigns. A tropical feature forecast to develop off the Southeast coast could also amplify the storms, downpours and humidity by midweek, particularly from Florida to the Carolinas.

More to see:

8 of the most notorious October hurricanes in the Atlantic
Why Atlantic tropical development is different in October
Meteorologists eye the next possible tropical feature to impact the US

"By late week, the dip in the jet stream will migrate northward into the Ohio Valley," added DaSilva, explaining that this departure could allow the interior Southeast to dry out. Unfortunately, areas along the southeast Atlantic coast may still be dealing with flooding downpours from a nearby tropical disturbance.

Forecasters recommend that residents have a reliable way to receive weather warnings and avoid going into their basements as the deluge ensues. Six inches of water from flash flooding is enough to cause cars to lose control or stall, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Motorists are warned to never drive through flooded roadways and when in doubt, remember the slogan "turn around, don't drown."

For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, DIRECTVstream, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeatherNOW is streaming on Roku and XUMO.

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AccuWeather Weather Forecasts Soupy weather on the menu for first full week of October
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