Parched Plains to get much-needed rain
AccuWeather forecasters say some drought relief is finally in sight for the drought-stricken central and southern Plains, where many cities have received less than half of the typical amount of rain to begin the year.
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A moisture-packed and slow-moving storm system will bring some much-needed rain to parts of the central and southern Plains this week, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
The rain, which could amount to several inches over the span of a few days in localized areas, will mark a dramatic change in the weather pattern for the south-central United States, where drought conditions have been expanding for months.
However, the rain, while largely beneficial, will not come without some hazards. Some flooding is possible in areas that receive continuous heavy rain from thunderstorms. Severe weather, including damaging winds and hail, will also be possible at times.
The storm that moved ashore in the Pacific Northwest this weekend will cross the Rockies and emerge in the Plains through the early part of this week, eventually joining forces with moisture coming out of the Gulf of Mexico.
The steadiest rainfall is expected to occur during an extended timeframe from late Monday into at least early Wednesday across a large part of the Plains, and additional waves of beneficial rain could arrive later in the week, AccuWeather forecasters say.
A corridor from southeastern Colorado into Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas, which also happens to feature some of the worst drought conditions, is expected to receive the lion's share of the moisture. This rain is likely to be welcomed with open arms by farmers and those with agricultural interests in the area.
"With planting season getting underway, the rain would certainly be welcome across large portions of Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma, which are all experiencing some level of drought," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski. Del Rio, Texas, in the western portion of the state, already has received over 5 inches of rain between Saturday and Sunday.
According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, a large area in the western part of the Plains from the Texas Hill Country north to Nebraska is dealing with drought conditions, with many considered to be in exceptional drought, the most intense classification used by the drought monitor.
The driest state in the region is Kansas, with at least moderate drought conditions present in nearly 80 percent of the state, and extreme or exceptional drought covering about 57 percent of the land, mainly across the southern and western parts of the state, according to the monitor.
Drought conditions have been present in the Plains since before the start of the year. Since New Year’s Day, rainfall amounts in several cities are about 25 to 50 percent of their respective historical averages.
In Dodge City, Kansas, just over 1 inch of rain has fallen since the beginning of January, which is only around 30 percent of the historical average. In Wichita, 2.87 inches has been recorded year-to-date, less than half of what is normal during that timeframe.
The above figures are as of April 21.
Similar deficits in rainfall compared to historical averages since the start of the year have occurred in other cities in the region, including Amarillo, Texas (38 percent of the historical average); Hays, Kansas (39 percent); Lamar, Colorado (36 percent); and Lubbock, Texas (25 percent).
"While a few inches of rain (this) week would certainly not alleviate all of the long-term drought, it would still be beneficial for the region," said Pydynowski.
For some, the rain could be too much of a good thing, and it could fall too quickly. With an abundance of atmospheric moisture available, there could be heavy thunderstorms that move over the same area repeatedly, resulting in localized rainfall amounts of 3 or more inches that could lead to flooding on streets, and in low-lying and poor-drainage areas.
Severe thunderstorms, complete with hail and damaging winds, are also a possibility this week, especially in the southeastern portion of the area expected to receive heavy rain. Texas, including cities like Houston and Dallas, may be the most at risk, with several days of severe weather possible.
"With a strong fetch of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico, as well as a potent disturbance swinging in from the northwest, the ingredients will be in place for severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday," AccuWeather Meteorologist Andrew Johnson-Levine said. Depending on the exact setup, strong storms could also continue into Thursday as well.
The dry conditions in the western Plains stand in stark contrast to areas farther east and north, where there has been an abundance of moisture this past winter and early in the spring from two very different types of weather.
In the northern Plains, record snowfall in some areas has eased a long-term drought in much of the Dakotas while also triggering spring flooding along many rivers downstream as the snow melts. Meanwhile, in eastern Oklahoma and Texas, multiple rounds of rain and severe thunderstorms over the last several months have kept drought conditions at bay there.
Additional rounds of rain are possible in the Plains toward the end of this week from another pair of storms. The first is expected to immediately follow the initial wave of moisture and impact much of Oklahoma and Texas from Wednesday into Thursday, while the second may remain farther north in the central and northern Plains late in the week.
As Pydynowski stated, the expected amount of rain this week will not be the end-all, cure-all for the long-term drought in the region. Residents and farmers will be looking for more rain to fall during the crucial late-spring and early-summer periods.
Drought-busting rain not expected to linger into the summer
According to AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasters, which is led by Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, there will be additional relief from the dry conditions in the short term, but that help might not stick into the summer.
"We are heading into a weather pattern where every so often a storm system will track through the West and into the Plains, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms," said Pastelok. "This pattern looks to last through the first week or two of May."
Traditionally, a large area of high pressure, which would promote dry and warm conditions, builds into the Southwest U.S. and Plains by May. However, this year it could be slower to form, due to cooler ocean waters in the eastern Pacific and a vast snowpack in the Intermountain West.
Pastelok's team still expects high pressure to form beginning during the second half of May, which would shut off the atmospheric spigot again into the summer months.
"The summer forecast for the region shows drier and hotter weather for at least the early part of the season," said Pastelok. "Because of that, I do not see a complete turnaround of the dry conditions."
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