Much-needed rain to dampen most of Southern California
Dry winds will carry the wildfire risk into Friday, but just enough moisture from a storm is forecast to deliver enough rain to wet the landscape of Southern California.
AccuWeather Founder & Executive Chairman Dr. Joel N. Myers explains the toll recent wildfires have taken on the state of California and shares AccuWeather’s preliminary estimate of the economic impact.
As a storm slides south along the California coast from Saturday to Monday, enough Pacific moisture may be pulled in to bring some much-needed rainfall and potentially help ease the wildfire for a time, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
"Just about every location in coastal Southern California, as well as the Southern California mountains, should at least get in on some showers this weekend," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk said.
"Most coastal areas have the potential to pick up 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch of rain, and some of the foothills and lower mountainsides could pick up 1 inch to 1.5 inches," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Heather Zehr added.
Snow levels will dip with the storm to between 3,500 and 4,000 feet, so there will be wet snow and perhaps slippery conditions over the crest of Tejon Pass, especially from Saturday night to Sunday. Several inches of snow will fall on the ridges and peaks of the Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada.
Overall the period from Sunday to Sunday night could be the wettest stretch during the storm for coastal areas.
Any rainfall that can dampen the brush in the region and soak the topsoil without triggering a debris flow will be welcomed. Higher humidity levels alone and a shutdown of the dry offshore winds will be a tremendous break.
The last time there was enough rain to measure in downtown Los Angeles was on Dec. 24, when a mere 0.02 of an inch fell.
The total rainfall for the entire stretch from June 1 to Tuesday, Jan. 21, is only 3% of the historical average or 0.16 of an inch, with most of that falling during November.
The upcoming rain will help to settle the dust and even briefly clean out the air of particulates. However, since it has been so long since there was a soaking rain, or since last spring, the extra ash and other buildup of chemicals on the roads can make some streets and highways extra slick when combined with light rainfall.
Not quite enough rain is anticipated to be of significant concern for mudslides and other debris flows in recent burn scar locations. However, should a downpour develop and linger, a highly localized debris flow could develop.
There should even be some shower activity that spills over the mountains and into the deserts, such as Palm Springs, California, Las Vegas, and Phoenix, from later in the weekend to early next week.
Still windy, so fire risk continues before the rain arrives
Before the rain arrives, dry offshore winds will last into Friday. At times, Santa Ana breezes will kick up to moderate levels. Most gusts in the traditional windy locations will range between 40 and 60 mph.
The winds helped to fan the flames of a new blaze called the Hughes Fire on Wednesday. As of late Wednesday night, the fire had rapidly grown to more than 10,000 acres. Because winds have not been as extreme as those of a couple of weeks ago, crews on the ground and aircraft have been able to get some containment on the fire (14%), which still threatens homes northwest of Los Angeles and has prompted tens of thousands of evacuations.
Despite the lower-intensity Santa Ana event, prevailing dry brush and a lack of rain will continue to push the wildfire danger to critical levels into Friday.
Beyond the upcoming weekend rain and mountain snow showers, the next opportunity for rain in the region could come in February.
"The next chance of significant rain over the next six weeks appears to be Feb. 10-23," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, "If appreciable rain doesn’t occur during that stretch, it may turn dry into much of March, further exacerbating the wildfire situation."
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