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Mother Nature ready to serve up some travel delays prior to Thanksgiving

Rain, snow and widespread gusty winds will likely cause travel headaches for those looking to travel before Thanksgiving.

By Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather Meteorologist

Published Nov 20, 2021 8:01 AM EDT | Updated Nov 22, 2021 6:35 AM EDT

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As millions of Americans prepare travel itineraries for Thanksgiving week, a storm will undoubtedly yield travel headaches for anyone looking to beat the Thanksgiving travel rush.

The major weather maker threatening to throw a wrench in early travel plans is an upper-level disturbance that was marching across central Canada on Saturday. That potent piece of energy dove down over American airspace as it moved to the east and then developed into a winter storm over the Midwest to end the weekend. On Sunday, travel conditions began to go downhill as the storm gained strength across the Midwest and Great Lakes.

Wet weather will continue to expand east on Monday, spreading travel concerns into the Interstate-95 corridor. The Monday morning commute, whether by land or air from Boston to New York City, through the mid-Atlantic states, even farther south in Raleigh and Augusta, Georgia, rain can be expected.

The rain will all be associated with an advancing potent cold front that will sweep off the Atlantic coast by the end of the day on Monday, however, the travel problems from the storm will not end there.

Snow will also make an appearance from this storm as it marches across the northern tier of the country early week, with a majority of it concentrating around the Great Lakes. Well above-average lake temperatures combined with a cold west-to-northwest wind will yield a perfect recipe for bands of lake-effect snow.

A general 1-3 inches of snow is likely to fall during the lake effect across northwestern Michigan with areas of slush on the roads, but in places where bands of snow manage to persist for multiple hours, a foot of snow can pile up, which could cause serious travel disruptions.

What could result in more widespread travel delays from this storm will not be rain or snow, but rather the wind.

With air travel expected to spike 80% this year compared to last year according to AAA analysts, this means that any disruptive weather on the days leading up to Thanksgiving could lead to big delays and, in some cases, have a domino effect across the country.

Last month, strong winds in Dallas triggered a snowball effect that contributed to more than 2,300 flight cancellations across the United States over a period of several days.

Strong winds are expected to spread southeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. West-to-northwest wind gusts frequenting 30 to 40 mph are likely in Buffalo, New York, and Toronto, Ontario, with locally higher gusts possible in open areas, in between buildings and over high bridges in the region.

AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gusts of up to 70 mph are anticipated along some of the southern and eastern shores of the Great Lakes on Monday. In these areas, the winds could not only disrupt travel, but could become locally damaging.

Breezy conditions will begin to dissipate across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. However, the core of disruptive wind gusts will mainly be in any gusty snow squall near the Great Lakes region or across any mountainous areas in the Catskills, Green Mountains and/or White Mountains. There, regions expect isolated wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range.

By Wednesday, blustery conditions will largely become limited to far northern New England into Atlantic Canada, leaving the remainder of the Eastern Seaboard largely dry with wind gusts backing off.

"The strongest winds will shift into Atlantic Canada by Wednesday as a potent cold front moves out farther into the Atlantic Ocean," AccuWeather Meteorologist Nicole LoBiondo said.

Strong wind gusts will be confined from Cape Cod to Maine Wednesday with general wind gusts ranging from 30 to 40 mph. The gustiest winds will be concentrated in Nova Scotia, Canada, where general wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph are likely with an AccuWeather StormMax™ of 70 mph.

Travel issues will likely focus farther west across the center of the country during the busiest travel day of the year. Gusty winds, rain and a bit of snow are expected to target the Midwest, while rain and wind will be commonplace across the South Central states. Snow showers and breezy conditions will likely reside across the Rockies, also leading to issues on roadways.

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