Extreme heat wave to break across part of Europe
An extreme and dangerous heat wave responsible for highs of 30-40 C (90s to low 100s F) will only slowly ease in part of Europe and persist in other areas as the first week of July progresses.
Extreme heat and humidity have baked the city of Paris, France, as of July 2. This searing heat has caused the Eiffel Tower to be closed to visitors.
The second half of June has been hot across much of Europe, and the new month is starting off sizzling in many locations. The extreme heat will linger into the first few days of July in many areas, but some cooler air is on the way for part of the continent, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
"The extreme heat is being produced by a dome of high pressure associated with a northward bulge in the jet stream," AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said, "This setup tends to lock out any cool air from moving southward and allows the air to get hotter in place."
Widespread highs of 30-40 C (ranging from upper 80s, 90s and low 100s F) continued into Tuesday in northwest Europe and will linger through the middle of the week in central Europe. Many areas have or will experience their highest temperatures in the last few years, and in places where the heat builds, each day could be hotter than the last.
Portugal has set a national all-time June record with 46.6 (115.9 F) at Mora. Meanwhile, Barcelona, Spain, reached 37.9 (100.2 F) and Ourense, Spain, climbed to 41.6 (106.9 F). Both are June all-time city records.
England experienced its hottest June ever with an average temperature of 16.9 (62.4 F), while it was the second hottest June 15.2 (59.4 F) since 1884 for the United Kingdom as a whole, according to the U.K.'s Met Office. Just two years earlier--2023 is the record holder for the hottest June in the U.K. at 15.8 (60.4 F).
In order for the pattern to change, the high pressure dome must weaken or shift position.
As the week progresses, a combination of both will occur, and that should be enough to bring cooler air to northwestern Europe and take the edge off the heat in parts of central Europe, Nicholls said.
"Cooling will reach northern France on Wednesday, and then more of the Benelux region and western Germany on Thursday," Nicholls said.
For example, highs in London are projected to be down significantly, in the lower 20s (mid-70s F) on Wednesday, following a high of 33.9 (93 F) on Tuesday. In Paris, highs should be in the upper 20s (low 80s F) by Thursday. The heat peaked in Paris on Tuesday with a high of 37.8 (100 F) at Charles de Gaulle Airport.
The extreme heat can lead to spotty, intense thunderstorms in some areas during the afternoon and evening hours. As the leading edge of cooler air moves across northern and central Europe, more general heavy, gusty to severe thunderstorms may be possible.
As the heat dome shifts, temperatures will surge farther to the east in Europe for a time.
"A brief spell of heat will reach Berlin into midweek, then much of Poland from Wednesday and Thursday," Nicholls said, "The Balkans will be quite hot Thursday through Sunday."
Very little cooling is foreseen from central Spain to the Italian Peninsula through the week.
During the last two weeks of June, temperatures in London (Heathrow) have been running close to 6 (10.5 F) above the historical average. Farther south, in Madrid, the collections of highs and lows have been 7.2 (12.9 F) above the historical average. In Rome, the departures were a bit less extreme, but still significant, with temperatures hovering around 3.4 (6.1 F) above the historical average.
With a high of 33.1 (92 F) in London on June 30, it was the highest temperature since the blistering summer of 2022, when temperatures reached as high as 40.2 (104 F) in July. Temperatures in Paris during the current heat wave are forecast to peak just a few degrees shy of the recent high mark of 41.4 (106.5 F) attained in July 2019. Madrid has been as high as 40.7 (105 F) in recent days and could eclipse that mark this week.
There will likely be more significant heat waves coming to Europe as the summer progresses, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
"One of the triggers for the high pressure dome's position is a vast puddle of chilly water over the central Atlantic," Pastelok said, "This is well known to cause the jet stream to buckle northward over western and central Europe. Since that chilly water is still there, we are likely to see the heat dome come back on occasion at least."
People who do not have access to air conditioning are urged to stay hydrated with non-alcoholic, non-caffeinated fluids during the heat wave and to avoid strenuous physical activity during the midday and afternoon hours when the sun's intensity is the greatest. Those working in the heat should take hydration and cool-down breaks.
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