Downpours target central US with flash flooding risks, wildfire relief
There's good news for some hoping for rain, but too much of a good thing could aggravate flooding problems in parts of the central United States this week.
In Vicksburg, Mississippi, Colonel Jeremiah Gipson of the US Army Corps of Engineers provides the latest updates on the major flood threat posed by the Mississippi River in that area as of April 22.
Showers and thunderstorms are taking aim at the central United States this week, bringing much-needed rain to some drought-stricken areas—but also raising the risk of flash flooding in others. Some storms could hit hard enough to flood streets and overwhelm drainage in local spots, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
River flooding unlikely, but flash flood threat remains
River flooding persists following two rounds of heavy rain this month. The most notorious incident occurred during the first week of April and brought up to 16 inches of rain in four days to parts of the mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio valleys.
While most small streams and secondary rivers have receded since the deluge, the main surge of water is still moving downstream on the lower Mississippi River, where moderate to major flooding continues.
The Mississippi River has recently crested or will soon crest along the shores of Tennessee, Arkansas and northern Mississippi. Farther down into the delta region, a crest around Baton Rouge is not forecast until nearly the end of the month.
Heavy rain drenched areas west of the Mississippi River over the Easter holiday weekend, pushing some secondary rivers in the southern and central Plains above flood stage.
That secondary surge will cycle down the Mississippi in the coming weeks, but it is likely to bring lower water levels than the first surge.
Many of the downpours into Friday will be poorly organized due to the weak nature of the storm systems drifting west to east from the Plains to the Atlantic coast or the Great Lakes.
Thanks to moisture from the Gulf, even non-severe thunderstorms can pack a punch—dropping torrential downpours over localized areas from the central and southern Plains to parts of the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Seaboard. In some cases, that could be enough to trigger urban and small stream flooding.
Since the cumulative rainfall will peak under 6 inches in the wettest spots over three to four days and there will be breaks in the rain, most rivers in the region should be able to handle the runoff with little impact.
Drought relief for some
Downpours through the end of the week will fall on some areas in need of rain over the Plains.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, many of these areas are under at least a moderate drought, with an exceptional drought, the highest category, across southwestern Texas.
"Total precipitation so far this year has been below the historical average for many locations across the Plains entirely, including Wichita, Kansas, and Rapid City, South Dakota," AccuWeather Meteorologist Haley Taylor said.
"In addition to the drought, this region has experienced numerous wildfires so far this year due to gusty winds and continued dry weather," Taylor said.
In areas where spring green-up hasn’t taken hold, these downpours could help ease wildfire conditions at the local level.
Portions of the East are also in need of rain, with conditions ranging from average wetness to extreme drought from Florida to New England.
Showers and spotty thunderstorms are forecast for parts of the southeastern U.S. mainland most days this week. However, the rain is likely to stay north of Florida, where heat and dryness will continue.
The most likely period for some rain to quench locally dry conditions in the Northeast is Friday to Saturday. Showers are most likely to occur in various parts of the Carolinas and Georgia each day through Friday.
Severe weather will be most active across the central and southern High Plains through much of the week, but some stronger storms could shift eastward by Friday.
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