Winter Ain`t Over Yet, Why The Ice Storms?
I love the comments we're getting via email this week about our Winter Forecast being incorrect. And to those who have asked, we haven't removed or hidden the Winter Forecast, it's still available in the Winter Center of AccuWeather.com. The reason it's not on the front page anymore is that we have too many competing items that need promotion - after the bulk of visitors have seen any one thing, it gets cycled out for other content.
Having our winter forecast be incorrect is technically impossible at this juncture, without bending the time-space continuum (which Joe Bastardi is working on). Winter hasn't even started yet (officially, it starts Saturday the 22nd).
But I know, I know, we said our forecast covered November to March. Well still, the very definition of a forecast says that you can't declare it incorrect until the end (or at least until the tipping point where you would have to have temperature readings above/below all-time records for the forecast to verify). In other words, it could still be cold for another month and that wouldn't rule out the overall winter being above normal in the East. IF we're wrong come April 1st, I'll post here and I'm sure Joe Bastardi will be forthright and issue an analysis of why. But until then, please, don't jump the gun.
We were more specific than just "winter" and we did name months, which is a more daring forecast than previous years. For the record, here's what we said on AccuWeather.com back on November 12th:*
Clearly, we got that correct, however it now being December 19th, obviously we did not take that far enough but hey, we made this forecast in early November (earlier for private clients) and we all know long-range forecasting is not 100% accurate. Departure from average temperatures so far this month are shown below -- it's probably not as much as you think (remember we were way above normal before the shift, so even normal seems cold).
We also said:
That is a pretty bold statement, but we've got 12 days left to let the beginning of that forecast verify. If it doesn't, then again, so be it, if you had a 100% accurate seasonal forecast you wouldn't be here.
But switching to the SOUTHeast, we said way back on October 22nd:
According to the normals map, the Southeast is quite a bit above normal, though I doubt it's one of the 10 warmest YET... but check back with me on February 29.
But what about the recent snow and ice in the East? Well, we said this about that:
"Bastardi cautions that there will still be bouts with major winter events... Even in the warmest of winters, cold and snow will enter the picture from time to time."F2
Which I would say covers what we've seen this month in the East. We even went so far as to predict the Plains and Northeast's recent bout of ice storms, a month ahead of time:
So... why have there been so many ice storms anyway? I asked MMM and he gave me a surprisingly simple but accurate answer: The Southeast Ridge. To expand on what he said, conditions (some say La Nina) have caused an unusually persistent upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Southeast.
A stubborn ridge of high pressure will do two things: 1.) Make low pressure and rainfall go around it, causing a long-term drought (sound familiar) and 2.) Send a flow of warm air high in the atmosphere towards the Plains and Northeast. You've probably heard the term "heat rises"? That warm air goes up over the cold air in those areas and that's what causes sleet and freezing rain.
SO IS "WINTER" OVER BEFORE IT STARTS?
Without giving away any of the long-range forecasts that are held confidentially on our Energy Pro site, let's just say that we're STILL not worried about our winter forecast being wrong, which means that yeah, if you like an overall cold winter when it comes to average temperatures, you might want to move farther north.
*For the record, here are the winter forecasts we've issued. If you want to take issue with anything else we've said, please quote from these documents (or the maps). Your interpretation of the forecast, or something some non-AccuWeather guy said on TV or the Internet doesn't count when it comes to verification.
F1: Free Site Release 10/22
F2: Free Site Release 11/12
P1: Pro Site Release 10/19
P2: Pro Site Release 11/12
