Models: Xmas Storm TN, Not TX
The morning Forecast Models [JessePedia] have completed, folks. Here's what they say. NOTE: We're still 5 days out, so anything could still happen.
SORRY, TEXAS:
The NMM has decided: No snow in Texas (it will fade out in New Mexico and the new storm will form south of Brownsville, Texas, pushing rain into Dallas at the end of the forecast period (evening of the 23rd).
The DGEX takes essentially the same solution, although it keeps the moisture together as it dives to southwest Texas (some heavy snow for westernmost Texas perhaps). The 12Z GFS agrees, although it gets a little light snow into the central part of the state.
A WHITE CHRISTMAS, BETTER LATE THAN NEVER?
The DGEX's Missouri/Illinois storm has become an Appalachian storm, starting with heavy snow on Christmas morning from eastern Tennessee to southern Ohio, then moving it over West Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York and New England (plus the North Carolina mountains) with only the coastal areas escaping snow between Christmas afternoon and the next morning.
The result is little snow on the ground Christmas morning outside of eastern Tennessee and Kentucky, but a swath stretching from Tennessee through New England by the night of the 26th/27th.
THE GFS TAKE: NOT AS FUN
The GFS kind of agrees with the DGEX but it doesn't get the precip far enough west Christmas morning to show any frozen stuff. As the storm moves to the Northeast, a mix of winter precip does occur in the Appalachians in Virginia northward with some heavy snow in New York, but for the most part the major cities are spared of the white stuff.
By the next morning, flurries behind the storm reach down to the Deep South and Appalachians. The result of it all - no snow on the ground Christmas morning but a light covering up the Appalachians , nothing for the major cities.
WHAT ABOUT CHICAGO?
Chicago, Illinois is too far west from the Christmas Day storm, if you believe the current model runs. And although the GFS does show light snow for Chicago on the tail end of Saturday's system, it doesn't show up in the snow cover maps, meaning that it didn't stick to the ground.
AND FINALLY...
Here's the official AccuWeather.com prediction as of this afternoon:
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