WEDNESDAY A.M: WILD THING....YOU MAKE MY HEART SING. 

1.) If you love the challenge of extremes, or at least the
chance for them, this is your pattern for this time of the year. 

2.) Cold becomes king for much of Canada, even as the western
Atlantic ridge turns into the big cheese for summer. 

3.) The Atlantic tropical season starts to light up as the
African wave train puts new storm threats by early next week into the western
Caribbean and south-central North Atlantic. 

Ciao for now. 

The MJO was non existent during the first burst and has tanked
on us again. The pulse of development that occurred in the southwest Pacific
where, after the new development over the next few days, would have yielded
five in three weeks (for them, that is a pulse, though in many years it would
be nothing) is working its way eastward, and the result is the increase in
activity in the southeast Pacific. This theory is not my own, but was taught
to me by Gil Clark, a former hurricane center forecaster. He said that the
increase in development in the deep Tropics started in the southwest Pacific
then went to the southeast, then to the Atlantic basin. Of course, Gil was
working during the down time for the Atlantic overall, so apparently what is
going on now is this pulse is much more active in the Atlantic than it was
back then. In any case, the pulse is working eastward and the African wave
train is starting to run again. We are getting to the time of the year when
water and temperatures aloft are at their warmest, and so a real track race
may be shaping up storm development here, perhaps one of the more active
30-day periods we have ever seen. Unlike 2002 when it was all in one month,
this may straddle the months. I will be keeping you updated on this idea as
time goes on. 

But wait, there's more. 

The ensemble run today after day 10 and once to day 15 was
probably the ultimate hurricane run. The development of the massive positive
height anomoly over the north Atlantic implies higher than average pressures
farther north than normal. The old timers referred to this as the kind of
pattern that produces the Newfoundland wheel a buildup of high pressure in
that part of the world that basically means hurricane have a chance to hit
the United States more so than average. The big pressure buildup there, and
by the way this is how I pulled the Gaston rabbit out of the hat last year,
by simply watching the big high even though there was no tropical waves
available. The fact is though that if the pressures build so much there, they
fall elsewhere. Lower-than-average pressures in the southwest Atlantic basin
promote a condition more favorable for storm development. Combine all this
with the warm water, the pulse of development and the wave train and one gets
a fairly interesting picture. 

Now the argument may be which dog is wagging what tail here,
for all of these may depend on one another. For instance, the wave train is
running because the pulse is leaving the southwest Pacific, allowing the wave
energy to progress again from east to west. And that may be occuring because
of the overall water profile that is feeding back and helping the pattern to
react the way it is. A crucial problem here when compared to the mega season
of '95, but its rapid recurve of storms is that everything looks to be farther
west than that year, the warm water, for instance, so development and rapid
intensification of storms and subsequent tendency to recurve is later in the
game. Again, you are seeing the product of a lot of thought here, but thought
that I have not seen talked about the way I have (I have to assume this is
hitting someone else also, since I am no Einstein) but it's like seeing the
wolf in the fog, I know he's out there and I will keep you informed about him
the best I can. 

By the way, the first wave should be reaching the Gulf next
Wednesday or Thursday while the second is near the islands. I don't expect
development before 80 with the first one, if it's going to occur, but each
succeeding wave could start developing farther east. 

THURSDAY 8:30 A.M. NOTE: 

I have some fun stuff tropical-wise later, including the idea
we are going to see a real track race starting later next week, so check it
out. 

Ciao for now. 

*********** 

THURSDAY EARLY: SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RIDGE, CANADIAN COLD
GETTING SET FOR TEXAS TO NEW ENGLAND BATTLE. IRENE CAUGHT IN BETWEEN 

4.) The African wave train starts running. The first wave goes
into the Gulf around the 18th, with the second wave by the 18th coming toward
the islands. 

More later, ciao for now. 
 

FRIDAY 8:15 P.M.: IRENE SLOWING AND GROWING, MODEL TREND
FARTHER EAST SHOWING WAY OUT. NEXT THREAT ALREADY SHAPING UP IN ATLANTIC. 

Now this segues, believe it or not, into my next point. The
second half of the hurricane season, the big threat is the Carolinas and
Florida and New England along with the Maritimes (Gulf, your're not done,
but I think when we argue at the end of the year who got it worst after
August 1st, the areas mentioned above will win). What can Irene tell us? 

1.) It may be a warning shot. The system now organizing at
42 west and 12 north is going to move slowly, by tropical standard,
west-northwestward over the next five days, and I have it near 25 north and
70 west as a hurricane next Sunday morning. This, I think, is the next East
Coast threat. The upper low in the central Atlantic splitting away, part of
it associated with the trof that took Harvey backs southwestward over the
next 7 days to western Cuba by next weekend. This is in a wonderful
position to help ventilate this slow-moving system, and, in a strange way,
is a repeat of the Dennis/Emily situation, only farther east. The moral is,
next Sunday through Wednesday, the East Coast, and I mean Florida too, now
has to watch this. 

2.) A "congregation of tracks" is developing near
30 north and 72 west. It seems to be becoming a meeting point for storms.
This, of course, is in the Atlantic. The natural spray of an active season
with storms centered within 300 miles of this radius would be for at least
a few to hit the East Coast. Last year it was near 30 north and 80 west, so
the shift supports my spray gun theory and the idea the analogs of past
East Coast seasons may have merit. Assuming some storms get 5-7 degrees
west of that, just as some are winding up east, and we have this kind of
season with a lot of storms that is a lot of storm and rumors of storms
pattern. The big season of 1995 saw the congregation just east of the
island and over the east-central Gulf. Not all seasons have this, but this
one looks like it will, and like the mega seasons, very often there is
major Atlantic bred one and one over the Gulf. This is a pet theory of
mine, applicable in the warm cycle of the Atlantic, and occasional in spike
years like '85. 

In any case, if we can remember back to 1996 before Fran
there was Eduoard, which in all fairness was a nasty blow for the Cape and
Islands, but the point is look what came after, a bit farther west. Keep
your eye on that system in the south-central Atlantic no matter what Irene
does, for that looks like it has trouble written all over it, given the
season, the pulse of development coming and the overall pattern 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

FRIDAY 10:30 A.M.: PATTERN OVERVIEW AND IRENE COMMENT NUMBER
ONE (TODAY) 

Pattern overview: YOU CAN'T KEEP A GOOD RIDGE DOWN. 

One can once again see and feel for themselves my point in
the mid-Atlantic states as this latest surge is smashing 5-day GFS means
from a weak ago by as much as 5 degrees. It also leads to the hurricane
burst pattern I am talking about, which you can read about in Thursday's
post. 

Speaking of hurricanes, the post later today will discuss
the three waves we now see, including one near 40 west that, given its
position and look, is probably going to at least be a contender for
development over the next five days. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

FRIDAY MORNING EARLY IDEAS 

3.) The African wave train is starting its run. Naming track
race may be underway in 7-10 days. The first wave is of concern in the
eastern Caribbean now moving slowly under Irene. The second and third are
following. The first Gulf worry comes middle and late week next week.
Please see yesterday's long-winded discussion. 

6.) The moral of the story mimics summer forecast ideas of
warmer, later, farther east and hurricane worries. 

Ciao for now. 
 

SATURDAY 10:00 P.M. : THE TROPICS 

A mistake, and in retrospect a stupid one, but one that may
help the forecast for TC 10. For by that time, the pattern will have
changed to support much higher pressures to the north of that system that
can feed it more, and the models are seeing that with their look,
especially the 18z run that has a large area of cyclonic flow coming
toward, then up the East Coast next week. 

I feel 10 will have to do battle with the shear being caused
by the upper low, but it will not be fatal, and we will again deal with a
storm that makes it through the mean central Atlantic trof position, and,
next week at this time, is in position to lead to yet another round of
forecast headaches. The pattern looks much more classic for trouble, be it
a straight west quicker path toward Florida or perhaps a recurve up the
coast, if not into the coast. The 9-day forecast is posted below the zones.


Before any of that, though, the sneaky wave in the Caribbean
may be a weather maker in the western Gulf the mid and latter part of the
week. The European, which has had a west and south bias west of 70 this
year, is insisting of a 3-4 mb/24 hour pressure fall wave coming from the
northwest Caribbean Tuesday to the Texas coast Thursday night. At the very
least this has to be watched for its possible enhancement of rain for South
Texas, and since it is headed toward the development pulse coming from the
west, and we have had several storms in the Gulf this year (all the
TROPICAL origin ones have developed before making it to the coast; it's the
non-African systems that have not), it would be worth the while of folks in
Texas to stay tuned. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

Zones 3, 6, 7: Longer- range ideas imply mid-nation trof
with major ridges near 130 and 70 west in means leading to warm, humid pattern
with tropical moisture input and perhaps direct tropical influences even
back inland possible week of 21st 

Zones 4, 8: Ridge holds for the most part leading to
warmer-than-normal pattern over the next ten days. Problems will be in
northern and mountain areas where thunderstorms can go off, and the week of
the 21st when TC 10 may approach the coast. Obviously to affect zone 8, it
must cut over or south of Florida first. 

Zone 5: No tropical problems through Thursday. The next
worry is TC 10, which could affect zone 5 early the week of the 21st. 

Zone 12: The front over the northwest sections will pull
northward and weaken, but will do so with wet weather as it does. Heat
comes back north, but again, next week at this time, down comes another
front, but again probably stalling where this one did, until big height
rises develop the week of the 21st over the Pacific Northwest. When that
happens, then the boundary may come southward. The tropical discussion will
talk about the wave in the central Caribbean now that could develop later
Wednesday or Thursday once west of 90. 

Tropics later. 

Ciao for now. 

************ 

SATURDAY: ZONES BEING WORKED ON, WILL INCLUDE TROPICAL
DISCUSSION. 

TC 10 FORECAST: Initial 13.0 north, 45.0 west, 30 knots; day
3, 12z Tuesday, 20.0 north, 52.0 west, 60 knots; Day 6, 12z Friday, 24.0
north, 65.0 west, 75 knots; Day 9, 12z Monday (8/22), 27.5 north, 77.5 west
90 knots. 

Since that goes out so long range, the initial forecast is
in 3-day increments.  

Ciao for now. 

*********** 

SATURDAY: SPECIAL TROPICAL OUTLOOK VIDEO HAS BEEN CUT AND
WILL BE ONLINE. ZONE IDEAS LATER. TROPICAL DISCUSSION, NEW IRENE FORECAST
AND INITIAL FORECAST FOR NEWLY-MINTED (BY ME) TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 INCLUDED.
CHECK BACK BY NOON. 

FRIDAY 8:15 P.M.: IRENE SLOWING AND GROWING, MODEL TREND
FARTHER EAST SHOWING WAY OUT. NEXT THREAT ALREADY SHAPING UP IN ATLANTIC. 

Now this segues, believe it or not, into my next point. The
second half of the hurricane season, the big threat is the Carolinas and
Florida and New England along with the Maritimes (Gulf, your're not done,
but I think when we argue at the end of the year who got it worst after
August 1st, the areas mentioned above will win). What can Irene tell us? 

1.) It may be a warning shot. The system now organizing at
42 west and 12 north is going to move slowly, by tropical standard,
west-northwestward over the next five days, and I have it near 25 north and
70 west as a hurricane next Sunday morning. This, I think, is the next East
Coast threat. The upper low in the central Atlantic splitting away, part of
it associated with the trof that took Harvey backs southwestward over the
next 7 days to western Cuba by next weekend. This is in a wonderful
position to help ventilate this slow-moving system, and, in a strange way,
is a repeat of the Dennis/Emily situation, only farther east. The moral is,
next Sunday through Wednesday, the East Coast, and I mean Florida too, now
has to watch this. 

2.) A "congregation of tracks" is developing near
30 north and 72 west. It seems to be becoming a meeting point for storms.
This, of course, is in the Atlantic. The natural spray of an active season
with storms centered within 300 miles of this radius would be for at least
a few to hit the East Coast. Last year it was near 30 north and 80 west, so
the shift supports my spray gun theory and the idea the analogs of past
East Coast seasons may have merit. Assuming some storms get 5-7 degrees
west of that, just as some are winding up east, and we have this kind of
season with a lot of storms that is a lot of storm and rumors of storms
pattern. The big season of 1995 saw the congregation just east of the
island and over the east-central Gulf. Not all seasons have this, but this
one looks like it will, and like the mega seasons, very often there is
major Atlantic bred one and one over the Gulf. This is a pet theory of
mine, applicable in the warm cycle of the Atlantic, and occasional in spike
years like '85. 

In any case, if we can remember back to 1996 before Fran
there was Eduoard, which in all fairness was a nasty blow for the Cape and
Islands, but the point is look what came after, a bit farther west. Keep
your eye on that system in the south-central Atlantic no matter what Irene
does, for that looks like it has trouble written all over it, given the
season, the pulse of development coming and the overall pattern 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

FRIDAY 10:30 A.M.: PATTERN OVERVIEW AND IRENE COMMENT NUMBER
ONE (TODAY) 

Pattern overview: YOU CAN'T KEEP A GOOD RIDGE DOWN. 

One can once again see and feel for themselves my point in
the mid-Atlantic states as this latest surge is smashing 5-day GFS means
from a weak ago by as much as 5 degrees. It also leads to the hurricane
burst pattern I am talking about, which you can read about in Thursday's
post. 

Speaking of hurricanes, the post later today will discuss
the three waves we now see, including one near 40 west that, given its
position and look, is probably going to at least be a contender for
development over the next five days. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

FRIDAY MORNING EARLY IDEAS 

3.) The African wave train is starting its run. Naming track
race may be underway in 7-10 days. The first wave is of concern in the
eastern Caribbean now moving slowly under Irene. The second and third are
following. The first Gulf worry comes middle and late week next week.
Please see yesterday's long-winded discussion. 

6.) The moral of the story mimics summer forecast ideas of
warmer, later, farther east and hurricane worries. 

Ciao for now. 
 

SATURDAY 10:00 P.M. : THE TROPICS 

A mistake, and in retrospect a stupid one, but one that may
help the forecast for TC 10. For by that time, the pattern will have
changed to support much higher pressures to the north of that system that
can feed it more, and the models are seeing that with their look,
especially the 18z run that has a large area of cyclonic flow coming
toward, then up the East Coast next week. 

I feel 10 will have to do battle with the shear being caused
by the upper low, but it will not be fatal, and we will again deal with a
storm that makes it through the mean central Atlantic trof position, and,
next week at this time, is in position to lead to yet another round of
forecast headaches. The pattern looks much more classic for trouble, be it
a straight west quicker path toward Florida or perhaps a recurve up the
coast, if not into the coast. The 9-day forecast is posted below the zones.


Before any of that, though, the sneaky wave in the Caribbean
may be a weather maker in the western Gulf the mid and latter part of the
week. The European, which has had a west and south bias west of 70 this
year, is insisting of a 3-4 mb/24 hour pressure fall wave coming from the
northwest Caribbean Tuesday to the Texas coast Thursday night. At the very
least this has to be watched for its possible enhancement of rain for South
Texas, and since it is headed toward the development pulse coming from the
west, and we have had several storms in the Gulf this year (all the
TROPICAL origin ones have developed before making it to the coast; it's the
non-African systems that have not), it would be worth the while of folks in
Texas to stay tuned. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

Zones 3, 6, 7: Longer- range ideas imply mid-nation trof
with major ridges near 130 and 70 west in means leading to warm, humid pattern
with tropical moisture input and perhaps direct tropical influences even
back inland possible week of 21st 

Zones 4, 8: Ridge holds for the most part leading to
warmer-than-normal pattern over the next ten days. Problems will be in
northern and mountain areas where thunderstorms can go off, and the week of
the 21st when TC 10 may approach the coast. Obviously to affect zone 8, it
must cut over or south of Florida first. 

Zone 5: No tropical problems through Thursday. The next
worry is TC 10, which could affect zone 5 early the week of the 21st. 

Zone 12: The front over the northwest sections will pull
northward and weaken, but will do so with wet weather as it does. Heat
comes back north, but again, next week at this time, down comes another
front, but again probably stalling where this one did, until big height
rises develop the week of the 21st over the Pacific Northwest. When that
happens, then the boundary may come southward. The tropical discussion will
talk about the wave in the central Caribbean now that could develop later
Wednesday or Thursday once west of 90. 

Tropics later. 

Ciao for now. 

************ 

SATURDAY: ZONES BEING WORKED ON, WILL INCLUDE TROPICAL
DISCUSSION. 

TC 10 FORECAST: Initial 13.0 north, 45.0 west, 30 knots; day
3, 12z Tuesday, 20.0 north, 52.0 west, 60 knots; Day 6, 12z Friday, 24.0
north, 65.0 west, 75 knots; Day 9, 12z Monday (8/22), 27.5 north, 77.5 west
90 knots. 

Since that goes out so long range, the initial forecast is
in 3-day increments.  

Ciao for now. 

*********** 

SATURDAY: SPECIAL TROPICAL OUTLOOK VIDEO HAS BEEN CUT AND
WILL BE ONLINE. ZONE IDEAS LATER. TROPICAL DISCUSSION, NEW IRENE FORECAST
AND INITIAL FORECAST FOR NEWLY-MINTED (BY ME) TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 INCLUDED.
CHECK BACK BY NOON. 
 

FRIDAY 8:15 P.M.: IRENE SLOWING AND GROWING, MODEL TREND
FARTHER EAST SHOWING WAY OUT. NEXT THREAT ALREADY SHAPING UP IN ATLANTIC. 

Now this segues, believe it or not, into my next point. The
second half of the hurricane season, the big threat is the Carolinas and
Florida and New England along with the Maritimes (Gulf, your're not done,
but I think when we argue at the end of the year who got it worst after
August 1st, the areas mentioned above will win). What can Irene tell us? 

1.) It may be a warning shot. The system now organizing at
42 west and 12 north is going to move slowly, by tropical standard,
west-northwestward over the next five days, and I have it near 25 north and
70 west as a hurricane next Sunday morning. This, I think, is the next East
Coast threat. The upper low in the central Atlantic splitting away, part of
it associated with the trof that took Harvey backs southwestward over the
next 7 days to western Cuba by next weekend. This is in a wonderful
position to help ventilate this slow-moving system, and, in a strange way,
is a repeat of the Dennis/Emily situation, only farther east. The moral is,
next Sunday through Wednesday, the East Coast, and I mean Florida too, now
has to watch this. 

2.) A "congregation of tracks" is developing near
30 north and 72 west. It seems to be becoming a meeting point for storms.
This, of course, is in the Atlantic. The natural spray of an active season
with storms centered within 300 miles of this radius would be for at least
a few to hit the East Coast. Last year it was near 30 north and 80 west, so
the shift supports my spray gun theory and the idea the analogs of past
East Coast seasons may have merit. Assuming some storms get 5-7 degrees
west of that, just as some are winding up east, and we have this kind of
season with a lot of storms that is a lot of storm and rumors of storms
pattern. The big season of 1995 saw the congregation just east of the
island and over the east-central Gulf. Not all seasons have this, but this
one looks like it will, and like the mega seasons, very often there is
major Atlantic bred one and one over the Gulf. This is a pet theory of
mine, applicable in the warm cycle of the Atlantic, and occasional in spike
years like '85. 

In any case, if we can remember back to 1996 before Fran
there was Eduoard, which in all fairness was a nasty blow for the Cape and
Islands, but the point is look what came after, a bit farther west. Keep
your eye on that system in the south-central Atlantic no matter what Irene
does, for that looks like it has trouble written all over it, given the
season, the pulse of development coming and the overall pattern 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

FRIDAY 10:30 A.M.: PATTERN OVERVIEW AND IRENE COMMENT NUMBER
ONE (TODAY) 

Pattern overview: YOU CAN'T KEEP A GOOD RIDGE DOWN. 

One can once again see and feel for themselves my point in
the mid-Atlantic states as this latest surge is smashing 5-day GFS means
from a weak ago by as much as 5 degrees. It also leads to the hurricane
burst pattern I am talking about, which you can read about in Thursday's
post. 

Speaking of hurricanes, the post later today will discuss
the three waves we now see, including one near 40 west that, given its
position and look, is probably going to at least be a contender for
development over the next five days. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

FRIDAY MORNING EARLY IDEAS 

3.) The African wave train is starting its run. Naming track
race may be underway in 7-10 days. The first wave is of concern in the
eastern Caribbean now moving slowly under Irene. The second and third are
following. The first Gulf worry comes middle and late week next week.
Please see yesterday's long-winded discussion. 

6.) The moral of the story mimics summer forecast ideas of
warmer, later, farther east and hurricane worries. 

Ciao for now. 

SATURDAY 10:00 P.M. : THE TROPICS 

A mistake, and in retrospect a stupid one, but one that may
help the forecast for TC 10. For by that time, the pattern will have
changed to support much higher pressures to the north of that system that
can feed it more, and the models are seeing that with their look,
especially the 18z run that has a large area of cyclonic flow coming
toward, then up the East Coast next week. 

I feel 10 will have to do battle with the shear being caused
by the upper low, but it will not be fatal, and we will again deal with a
storm that makes it through the mean central Atlantic trof position, and,
next week at this time, is in position to lead to yet another round of
forecast headaches. The pattern looks much more classic for trouble, be it
a straight west quicker path toward Florida or perhaps a recurve up the
coast, if not into the coast. The 9-day forecast is posted below the zones.


Before any of that, though, the sneaky wave in the Caribbean
may be a weather maker in the western Gulf the mid and latter part of the
week. The European, which has had a west and south bias west of 70 this
year, is insisting of a 3-4 mb/24 hour pressure fall wave coming from the
northwest Caribbean Tuesday to the Texas coast Thursday night. At the very
least this has to be watched for its possible enhancement of rain for South
Texas, and since it is headed toward the development pulse coming from the
west, and we have had several storms in the Gulf this year (all the
TROPICAL origin ones have developed before making it to the coast; it's the
non-African systems that have not), it would be worth the while of folks in
Texas to stay tuned. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

Zones 3, 6, 7: Longer- range ideas imply mid-nation trof
with major ridges near 130 and 70 west in means leading to warm, humid pattern
with tropical moisture input and perhaps direct tropical influences even
back inland possible week of 21st 

Zones 4, 8: Ridge holds for the most part leading to
warmer-than-normal pattern over the next ten days. Problems will be in
northern and mountain areas where thunderstorms can go off, and the week of
the 21st when TC 10 may approach the coast. Obviously to affect zone 8, it
must cut over or south of Florida first. 

Zone 5: No tropical problems through Thursday. The next
worry is TC 10, which could affect zone 5 early the week of the 21st. 

Zone 12: The front over the northwest sections will pull
northward and weaken, but will do so with wet weather as it does. Heat
comes back north, but again, next week at this time, down comes another
front, but again probably stalling where this one did, until big height
rises develop the week of the 21st over the Pacific Northwest. When that
happens, then the boundary may come southward. The tropical discussion will
talk about the wave in the central Caribbean now that could develop later
Wednesday or Thursday once west of 90. 

Tropics later. 

Ciao for now. 

************ 

SATURDAY: ZONES BEING WORKED ON, WILL INCLUDE TROPICAL
DISCUSSION. 

TC 10 FORECAST: Initial 13.0 north, 45.0 west, 30 knots; day
3, 12z Tuesday, 20.0 north, 52.0 west, 60 knots; Day 6, 12z Friday, 24.0
north, 65.0 west, 75 knots; Day 9, 12z Monday (8/22), 27.5 north, 77.5 west
90 knots. 

Since that goes out so long range, the initial forecast is
in 3-day increments.  

Ciao for now. 

*********** 

SATURDAY: SPECIAL TROPICAL OUTLOOK VIDEO HAS BEEN CUT AND
WILL BE ONLINE. ZONE IDEAS LATER. TROPICAL DISCUSSION, NEW IRENE FORECAST
AND INITIAL FORECAST FOR NEWLY-MINTED (BY ME) TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 INCLUDED.
CHECK BACK BY NOON. 

SUNDAY MIDDAY: COMMENT ON JOSE TO BE (IN MY OPINION).  

The western Gulf situation is intriguing for later in the week
and will be commented on later. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

SUNDAY MORNING MORSELS: WHAT A FIELD DAY FOR THE HEAT, JOSE,
CAN YOU SEE, YOUR WAY TOWARD THE STATES? 

6.) Hurricane season will start raising cane later this week
as development pulse of 7-10 new storms by mid-September develops. 

Ciao for now. 

MONDAY AFTERNOON TROPICAL DISSERTATION. 

I will refer the reader again to the midday post Thursday. As
it is a forecast and said this active period would start later this week and
I would try to hone in on the dates, here I go. I think seven storms get
named by September 20th. 

I am receiving emails, much like last year, and the year
before, saying nothing is going to happen, and the reasons this year have to
do with the African dust. The pure fact of the matter is the burst of dry air
out of the Sahara would be expected in the time of a downward pulse over the
Atlantic. Readers here understand the cause for the downward pulse now, it
was talked about two weeks before it happened, and the burst of typhoons was
the sign it was happening. But now we can all simply sit back and see how
many storms get named (am I taking a chance here, trusting my forecast number
to someone else that has the power to name them) by September 20th. One of
these years, though, when someone tells me nothing is going to happen, they
will be right. Maybe this is the year. 

But remember this...the later storms form in their journey,
the more likely they are to hit land. It's that simple. The warmest water,
the type of summer, the overall pattern and forecasted pattern all match
closely years when bursts occurred. The strongest analogs right now are 1944,
1954, 1955 and 1999. But as I have said with no sarcasm or humor intended, it
is my take that only God knows the future. I use the talent I have to reach
toward that, though. 

So one at a time, here is how I see things. 

TC 10 is alive and kicking. The UKMET is the model that hangs
on to it most with the Euro having a trackable entity also. The UKMET Sunday
morning has it near 26 north and 70 west. Obviously, a storm there would have
to negotiate with whatever trof is going by to the north early next week. But
the interesting thing about both the Euro and UKMET is they are going right
to the trof split idea that was talked about in this morning's post. 

The GFDL has been funny. For two runs in a row, once past 60
west, it blew this up into a hurricane, but the 12z run lost it. The reason
is, and this is what the model is saying, should it survive the journey
through the central Atlantic trof, it's probably going to develop. 

Looking closely at the system, I think it will. There is extra
heat and energy arriving from a tropical wave from the southeast, which
should feed in tonight and tomorrow. The position forecast will be good for
tomorrow morning, perhaps a bit farther north. It will, if it still has the
circulation, be referred to as a 25-knot system since one can plainly see
clouds rotating around it now near 15 north and 50 west. But the fact that
two major global models see it, and are actually deepening it once west of
60, indicates to me that we may simply have a late bloomer on our hands. 

There are three other things to discuss. The first is the
tropical wave in the central Caribbean that is probably nothing more than a late
bloomer in the extreme southwest Gulf Thursday with an appendage sticking up
north. The system on the Euro, and it has been amazing in its consistency,
brings 3-4 mb pressure falls into the western Gulf with it. 

The second is the midlevel feature that is near 25 and 60 this
afternoon. This peels off southwestward, and again, we see its value at 500mb
and the surface with a lower pressure as it comes westward. This is not the
upper trof, per se, but some piece of it that is being drawn southwestward. One
key to its chance for development (and remember the idea of this pulse coming
from the west is the farther west we go, the better the chance for
development) is that it has to entrain some extra heat in from any tropical
waves around. We have one out in front of tropical cyclone 10, so it's there
to be had. Again we can track a pressure fall center all the way into the
Gulf with it early next week. 

Now the last little piece of pie in our weather bakery is what
is going to start coming off Africa. For a couple of runs now, the UKMET has
had some monster emerging, and in fact, on a couple of runs, it almost looked
like it was pushing a tropical cyclone through southern Africa. There have
been cases, most notably Donna in 1960, when systems may have been storms
reaching the coast. This happens when the wet bulb over land is extremely
high, high enough to offset frictional effects of land. A case in point was
Allison over southern Louisiana a few years ago, and Danny in 1997, both of
which regained storm intensity while over land simply because they were over
flat ground but had enough energy and heat to develop. In any case, there is
a message behind the models here that has to be seen, in my opinion. Here it
is: 

1.) THAT MODELING IS HOLDING ON, AND IN SOME CASES SEEING
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST, MEANS THE PULSE TALKED ABOUT IS COMING WEST. 

2.) THE "RUMORS" OF STRONGER LOOKING WAVES COMING
OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA MEANS WE ARE SEEING THE WAVE TRAIN REV UP, RIGHT AT
THE BIG TIME OF THE YEAR. 

Other factors are such things as amplification and trof
splitting over the States and the development of higher pressures in the
means over the north Atlantic, but again, the Thursday post is talking about
that. But there is a simple way to see if I am right here. Let's see how many
new storms occur by September 20th. Since the record for a month, I think, is
nine, seven in a 30-day period is quite a burst, and I think we will see at
least that. And of course I have the attitude that things are ripe in close
to the coast for threats and hits, so it will be interesting to see what
happens. I know I will be interested. 

Notes: For the first time, late this afternoon, the low-level
swirl with TC 10 is getting some thunderstorms in bands northwest of the
center, which is near 16 north and 50 west. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

MONDAY MIDMORNING POST: A LOT IS GOING ON AS PATTERN REPEATS
CYCLE MID-JUNE TO MID-JULY IN NATURE, BUT LATE SUMMER VERSION 

Some very interesting weather, including what I think is going
to be a burst of 7-10 named storms by August 20 - September 20, looks to be
getting ready to occur. The Tropics will be part of a separate discussion
later. 

And as far as the hurricanes go, trof splits near the East
Coast and back into the Gulf States are what I look for to invite problems.
For each time one of these splits, it allows for large areas of ventilation
near the ridge. That is for later, though, as far as discussion. 

The ideas that this will occur are supported by the daily SOI
reversal underway and the idea we are back in phase one of the Madden-Julian
Oscillation. Large ridges in the means are forecasted to develop again near
Japan, northeast of Hawaii and in Europe, and given water temperatures off
the East Coast, why the eastern ridge will not respond and force the trof
split is beyond me. 

Now keep in mind that we have different feedbacks than we do
in the earlier summer. For instance, the ocean water off the East Coast and
Gulf is heading for its highest temperatures and greatest feedback
capability. So the dominance of low-level heat input into the atmosphere
shifts eastward with time. The idea of trofs over the eastern part of the
nation implies big buildups of pressures in the means over the Plains because
cooler air can come down and over the north Atlantic (hence TPC's A.C.E.
index, which, if you are an old-timer, you would recognize as the reworking
of some of theories that came out of Cal Tech and MIT, where one of my
mentors, the late Norm MacDonald, picked them up. Basically the idea is build
the pressure away from the Tropics, you must make it fall over the Tropics.
If you remember, the idea I had about early-season action had to do with
warmer-than-normal water, and lower-than-normal pressures in the Tropics,
though at that time it was brought about by northern trofs getting fairly far
south. Now they can't get as far south, but they can ventilate waves. 

In any case, that is a thumbnail sketch of how I think we are
heading over the next 2-3 weeks.  

The Tropical discussion will touch upon the idea that we will
have to look for feedback near the mid-Atlantic coast next week. Now the last
time I said that, nothing big happened, but I have never seen ocean water
like this offshore, though admittedly, 1999 may have been warmer, I just
wasn't so in tuned to it then since I started checking this every day since
the reversal in May. It was warmer earlier that year and was sort of a gimme.


Ciao for now. 

********** 

MONDAY MORNING MAYHEM: 

3.) The SOI is turning positive. A Pacific burst working
eastward is building pressures in the northwest Atlantic in the means and
falling over the southwest Atlantic basin, which translates into a very
active period in the Tropics starting later this week. The idea is for 7-10
named storms in a one-month period starting August 20th. 

4.) Easterly waves hooked with upper features affect deep
South Texas with enhanced thunderstorms Thursday. The second easterly wave
with an upper low splitting and shearing TC 10 now reaches Florida later in
the week as a ridge builds east-west north of it until late week. It looks
like development with a Gulf system is too little, too late Thursday, but a
pressure fall center with Florida's late week wave looks interesting. More
comments later. 

5.) TC 10 is still alive and kicking. It must negotiate shear
zone. It should be midway between Bermuda and Florida by Sunday, then
upstream events and interaction will be crucial. The pattern is ripe for
development once the system is west of 60. 

 

TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: GFS LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES USE COMPROMISE TO SET UP WRONG
IDEA. TC 10 IDEAS AND NEW FORECASTS COMMENT ON POSSIBLE GULF DEVELOPMENT NEXT
WEEK. 

The test of my tropical burst post-August 20th starts with all
this. It would be nice if by the end of next week (week of the 21st), three
developments have occurred as then the email will start about me being
underdone. But here is what the problem is. When amplification and trof
splitting start, heat and ventilation love to develop. TC 10 is actually two
systems, and before development can take place, they have to settle as to
which one takes over. That being said, the system is larger than it has been
and has more of an area of influence. It does have to get through the shear
zone in front of it. But here is the big problem. If it does, then the system
will be near the Bahamas early next week when this split occurs around it,
and if that is the case, it is in nice position for development and a turn
toward the coast. The latest idea from me with 72-hour and 144-hour forecasts
(update of previous, and until it is back to official status, it will be
3-day intervals against the original idea, which was a 9-day forecast in
3-day increments issued Saturday) is for the system Friday morning to be at
21.5 north and 62.5 west with 35-knot winds, and then next Monday morning at
24 north and 74 west with 50-knot winds. The funny thing is that if it is
back to 35 knots by Friday, then chances are it's quite a bit stronger than
that by Monday. Interestingly enough, the track has been adjusted south. Also
interestingly enough, we see that away from this large upper ridge in the
Atlantic, things are ripe for development, be it west or north of the ridge.
Irene is being classified as a 5.0 now, which would put it knocking on the
door of a category 3. Miami has been forced to up winds to 100, drop pressure
estimates to 975, both of which may be conservative. Remember, shear is not
shear if the storm is moving in the direction of the strong wind to the north.
In fact, that strong west shear they keep talking about to the north (this is
not criticism, just an observation) is simply ventilating the storm by
creating a jet entrance region synoptically to the north (air accelerating
toward the jet core), and it's been more than happy to pull air out of the
hurricane and to ventilate it. The system south of it is doing the same thing
on its southwest side. And amazingly, it fought its pressure down. But the
message is, the farther away from the east and central Atlantic you are, the
better the parameters for development right now, and the evidence has been
shown with both storms. Irene heading away is fine, but something coming from
the east toward the area is a problem. 

By forecasting the intensity I did, I just "ensembled"
you. How so? Well, it probably is either nothing or it's 70 knots next week,
and I am taking a "middle ground." It is just that in large-scale
patterns, it's easier to pick out some errors overall, and hurricanes are
small systems. The other is that the Euro has definitely been establishing
the stream right along that core of warm water with these disturbances. That
Irene fell 4-6 degrees too short, let's remember, was in the face of the rest
of the models saying it was going no farther west than 60 when all the
fighting started. It may be telling us something. If not, when nothing
happens, then when something does. 

The second area was the subject of a post this morning, and
this should be in the west-central Gulf Monday and trying to get its act together
as the other part of the trof split forces the front southward through Texas
and sets up a favorable surface pattern for development. Close inspection of
the parameters reveal the height fall center from the northeast that is
ripping southwestward actually pulls up a Central American system and they
intersect over the south-central Gulf. The loose area of low pressure should
be off the northwest tip of the Yucatan Monday morning, and let's just leave
it at that for now. 

And we see the African wave train getting stronger with each
system coming off, and a very strong system should come off the coast this
weekend and start out into the Atlantic. So by Monday morning, it should be
interesting to see how all this looks. 

If we look at the excellent site out of PSU, the eye-all
tropical site, which, by the way, along with the comeback of PSU football I
am loudly proclaiming this year (old Italians never quit, they fight back),
put them in a real position to take up residence again in the synoptic seven,
is showing the amazingly large area when water temperature and shear are
combined for development, and it is all the way up to 40 north off the East
Coast. Odds are anything that spins out of the low-level feedback later
Thursday and Friday heads northeastward anyway. In fact, the models try to
use this to take out what is coming from TC 10, which looks wrong anyway
since they have been too far north with the system in the first place (my
position at 20 and 52 WAS SOUTH OF THE GFS FROM LAST WEEK AND I WAS TOO FAR
NORTH) and they usually knock heights down too much off the East Coast.
Irene's recurvature was not due to the fact the trof got it, but because of
the system sniffing out the ridge at the time. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

TUESDAY MIDDAY, A SIDELIGHT OF IRENE. 

In any case, the error on the first 72 hours of TC 10, which
by all rights, looking at the pics is a depression, was 240 miles too far
north on my part with wind speeds at 60 knots probably 30-35 knots too high.
A new set of forecast ideas on this will be issued in the next post, at 3-day
increments until advisories resume. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

TUESDAY MORNING (LATER THAN EARLIER POST, WHICH WAS EARLIER
THAN THIS LATER POST): MORNING CLOUDS SHOTS DEMAND SOME EXPLANATIONS. 

But I want to discuss two potential U.S. troublemakers here as
cloud shots and a very close scrutiny of the European, the model that has
these two on it, have led to what could be a light shining on the situation. 

The first system is not Tropical Cyclone 10, which this
morning looks as well put together as when it was classified by Miami.
Instead it is a loose area of low pressure located near 30 north and 55 west
that is moving southwestward. This, and not the thunderstorm cluster now
north of Puerto Rico, is the system that has to be watched. This is totally
void on any interaction with tropical waves as discussed yesterday when I
thought the feature northeast of San Juan was the one to watch. That appears
to be a low-level trof in its own right, out ahead of what is diving
southwestward now. This reaches the north coast of Cuba Friday morning and is
in the Yucatan by Sunday and then into the Gulf Monday. Interestingly enough,
the European, which has been carrying this now for a couple of days, WEAKENS
the system near Cuba, but has pressures lowering once into the Gulf, as if it
senses the nature of the system. Unfortunately, this is being written after
the tropical outlook was issued this morning, though the end game may be the
same. In looking at the outflow levels, once again it would be the dry air
that would limit it until later in its journey. The outflow doesn't look that
bad in its way as it's already on the other side of the trof. 

Tropical Cyclone 10 looks about as good this morning as it has
looked, but still has some shear around. However, the banded structure is
well defined, and some thunderstorms are breaking out northwest of the
center. The center itself has managed to get thunderstorms going, and by all
rights in the definition of at tropical depression, it most certainly is. The
parameters of doubt remain the same, but the shear is relaxing, and because
the system is relatively small, it will be a question of how much work it can
do to moisten things up as the smallness of it, plus the fact the shear zone looks
to be splitting now and giving it a way through on its way
west-northwestward, is such that it may slowly continue to develop. In any
case, I am in the Euro's camp on tracks of both these systems. 

The tropical wave to the southeast of TC 10 continues to feel
low-level energy in, and this may be helping it overcome what shear there is
left. Still, let's see how we look in 24 hours, as the tropical upper
tropospheric trof can be a hungry, unforgiving feature to these embryonic
features. 

Hopefully, with both these systems, continuity can get better
established today so that it will be easier to dissect the situation. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

TUESDAY MORNING TIDBITS. 

6.) Only the Euro holds onto TC 10 and has it 25 north and 75
west next Monday. Obviously, given my ideas on it, it is the model of my
choice on that. There is some convection near the low-level center this
morning, which continues tracking south of GFS ideas. 

8.) A tropical wave in the western Caribbean reaches the
western Gulf Thursday with last-second enhancement possible in the southwest
Gulf, but only showers and thunderstorms reach South Texas. Extra moisture is
in place, though, in West Texas from input Friday and Saturday for the front
to cause more excessive rain. 

9.) A curious little feature northeast of Puerto Rico will
have a pressure fall center moving into the Gulf early next week. 

Ciao for now. 

WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A MORE REASONABLE HOUR: MEA CULPA ON CHICAGO. 

The post Thursday on the hurricane burst gave the time period
through September 15th, but also said I was studying this and wanted to hone
in. I guess I could keep that since I really think this is going to happen,
but I wanted to get my idea out early, and I think the period should be
through the 20th. That post was to give you an idea of what I was thinking
early before it started and everyone else jumped on the bandwagon. Of course,
if it doesn't start and we don't get that many, then that is a different
story. Keep in mind IT'S AT LEAST SEVEN through the 20th, so if there are
six, then it's wrong to me. Also, I believe at least half of what forms
scored impact points. 

TC 10 is getting its act together. Gone is the burst and bust
pattern, and instead there are banding popcorn thunderstorms in the path of
the system indicative of large-scale upward motion. The tropical wave behind
still has not fed in, but it's getting closer, and with a slight increase in
a northward component to the front-running low-level vortex, the system
coming from behind and moving westward should come in. It has been distorting
inflow on the east side. That has been a negative, but should it feed in, it
will help, not hinder, development. 

Once again, though, this system is fighting a lot of air
around it, and so the upper parameters are about neutral - dry air versus
relaxing shear. I think if not for the warm water, this would have been long
gone, but the total energy consideration is such that it is tipping the balance
in favor of it. 

But the fact we are seeing the kind of convective banding
pattern we are does indicate to me this is far from over. In fact, if one
remembers Dennis (1999), when it was east-northeast of the islands, looked
very similar. Interestingly enough, that storm had to negotiate a trof split
too. 

All the models are united on the UKMET monster coming out of
Africa Saturday, though, as usual, the GFS quickly tries to recurve it, later
on 6z than 00z run. I like the idea that this will come off and be a threat
late next week to the islands. 

The Gulf situation is extremely complex for next week, and I
have nothing to add to that from yesterday's post. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY MORNING WONDERINGS (EARLY, YOU ARE STILL
ASLEEP):MAJOR TROF SPLIT NEXT WEEK. HURRICANES: PATTERN BUILDING IT, WILL
THEY COME? 

6.) The Tropics: 

a.) Tropical wave in the Yucatan to 100 west by Friday morning
with no development. 

b.) Complex features backing southwest from north of the
Greater Antilles pull up Central American wave into the Gulf next week.
Possible early and midweek development. 

c.) TC 10 is better banded this morning, but convection has
been able to sustain in concentrated form. A new set of forecast ideas
through six days was issued last night. U.S. models either lose it or a way
too far north through 96 hours, useless after that (unless, of course, it is
gone). I feel the system is near the Bahamas early next week and has to
negotiate with a trof split as to whether it gets out or turns and comes into
the Southeast. 

d.) A major wave comes off Africa this weekend and is a threat
to the islands by late next week. 

e.) Score-able burst period starts in three days. 

Ciao for now. 
 

I can't disagree with Miami's idea. My Jose-to-be is currently
Peggy Lee. (Is that all there is?) 

Why? I am not sure. The shear has relaxed and the classic
S-shaped outflow has formed over it. It is coming away from much more hostile
conditions. There may be something to the idea that it came so hard so long
that it simply exhausted itself. There may be something to the idea that
there is very obviously a lot of fun and games southwest of it around the
Central America, which has to be talked about here too. 

One thing we do see is that only the Euro is constant with its
idea, and the synoptic pattern that puts this near 30 north and 80 west the
middle of next week is the same one where one would look there for
development. The GFS has gone west, the UKMET is west, and the Canadian is
already way out of line. The ETA is developing it but looks mis-initialized
at 18z with the position. So my take is to hang on and see how this goes. I
think the upper levels are better for development and that this is coming
into an area and weather situation where if there were nothing, I would look
for something. Besides, every time it has pulsed down, it would come roaring
back. There is still a midlevel circulation center and it is near 18.5 and 60
west this afternoon. Whether that can get down to the ground or not and start
things cranking, I don't know. 

I can't sit here and say this is dead, though. I am looking at
the bending of the cloud mass in front of it and that very definitely
indicates the ridge is there for the taking. But no longer is the low-level
circulation and idea that this is a depression anywhere near valid, and, of
course, Miami smells like a rose all the way around, for they had no plane in
yesterday, and the lack of anything to report today means they were
justified, which means...they smell like a rose. 

But the weather map next week says that this is not TC 10's
obituary yet, but instead a status report of a system that, at best, is in
the ICU. 

I was very concerned about the men making the recon flight
today. It was a long haul from Biloxi, and when they got there, there was a
danger they could have all fallen asleep with something like this. There
simply was no evidence of what looked to be strong evidence yesterday. 

But the situation for the Gulf next week is also a tough one.
The system over the southwest Caribbean will move northwestward, not
westward, over the next few days, responding to the weakening ridge to the
north taking its foot off the throat of the waves there and shoving them into
the Pacific. The system in the Pacific on the other side is part of the
reason as it's helping pinwheel this northwestward. In addition, pressure
falls from the tropical wave to its northeast will bring this large
conglomeration into the southern Gulf Monday. The pattern is such that it
would continue northwestward after that, but to be blunt, until I can see
when and if low pressure can develop in concentrated form, I can't say for
sure. We do see a low-level to mid-level spin in it, and chances are, with
all that is available to it, it may be a player in the Gulf next week. There
will be more on this tomorrow. 

And, of course, the pattern has changed across Africa with a
much moister look, and we should have a long track attempt next week, perhaps
the first of a few. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

THURSDAY LUNCHTIME SNACK. 

First off, from Pittsburgh to the Bootheel, Saturday should be
the hottest day of the summer as this heat means business there. The surge of
heat may be such that the core of it comes across the mid-Atlantic Saturday
night and helps to avoid such a fate on Sunday. 

Just a quick observation here about TC 10. 

It is true this is less organized in the low levels than
yesterday, but is this because of the wave in back that is closing in on the
original center? This has to be disrupting inflow, but if one stands back and
looks, we find the system is bigger and now there is outflow over it. We will
have to see what the recon has, but I think if this was going to go away, it
would have done so by now. The pattern in its path steadily improves and
leaves us by Sunday with an ideal pattern for development...assuming it has
survived. In addition, the GFS no longer recurves it, but has it right over
the Bahamas by Monday morning. This ups the ante more. A more extensive tropical
post will be out later. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

THURSDAY 9:00 A.M. 

First of all, no more email about Tropical Cyclone 10 being at
least a depression. Really, most everyone who watches these things looks at
the definitions supplied and believes that. I can't speak for why it's not
listed as that, but I am impressed with it a.) getting at least 5 degrees
farther west than Irene (and probably getting trapped) and b.) having more
moisture in a deep layer to intensify beyond a limit over a few days like
Irene. It looks like a classic pattern and it reminds me a lot of Dennis...in
`99. But I will talk more about that later.  

Ciao for now. 

********** 

IF YOU BUILD IT, THEY WILL COME, HURRICANE BURST PATTERN
FORECASTED HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR ALL OF NATION. DOES FULL MOON HAVE
SOMETHING TO DO WITH SETTING THIS ALL OFF? (TALK AMONGST YOURSELF ON THAT.) 

d.) The Tropics match should be lit. Two U.S. threats will
occur over the next ten days, perhaps three within 14 days. TC 10 should
reach areas of the northern Bahamas early next week and get trapped by the
pattern. If so, a major change in the overall map, as alluded to a week ago,
forces it to the coast, not out. The GFS and U.S. models again have been much
too far north, too weak and so far out to lunch with this. The GFS now sees
it, but it still tries to keep it out. Pattern errors on heights off the East
Coast this weekend show a problem as the model now forecasted 30-60 meters
higher with the ridge through the weekend, but it still goes into the same
error mode. The Euro has a system near 30 and 80 next Wednesday night, UKMET
farther northeast by implying it's coming northward or perhaps
north-northwestward with its trof splitting. The point is that it's not gone.


A very complex situation arises in the Gulf next week as an
upper feature near eastern Cuba backs southwestward and entrains a tropical
wave from the southern Caribbean toward and up into the Gulf. 

The strongest African wave of the season should be near 20
north 65 west by next Friday morning. 

8.) When it's all over, summer will be remembered for its heat
in much of the nation and hurricanes from the water. It ends the way it
started as far as news, but the emphasis probably is more east than west. 

Way too long, way too early. 

Ciao for now. 

FRIDAY
PATTERN OVERVIEW: BACK AND FORTH, BUT EASTERN RIDGE/WESTERN TROF WINDS UP
BEING THE AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. MASSIVE SOI TURN AROUND FUELING MY
HURRICANE HYSTERMANIA (big word - I wonder what it means). 

Tropics below. 

TROPICS: Since I obviously have developed an affinity for TC
10, I have brought in an objective person to view the San Juan radar to
answer the question of spin. It's called, "Jess eye for the storm loving
guy." Jess, being my wife; me being the storm lover. I simply but the
cloud shot and radar overlay on and ask her what she sees and there is some
rotation center about 100 north-northeast of San Juan this afternoon. This is
right where the 850 mb vortex is. The track ideas have been good with this,
but obviously we don't have anything close to the intensity I had. However,
the song remains the same. With each step west it comes into the area surface
and aloft that grows more favorable, and favors the development of it. This
should be sitting in the central Bahamas near 25 north 77.5 west Monday
morning and then perhaps a bit farther west Tuesday. The pulsing of
convection continues. The first major key for development: The pulse ramps up
and levels off, not falls apart. If that happens, a ramp up with occur rather
quickly. The best I could say now is as I have been. The Southeast coast
should not let its guard down as the overall pattern would have me worried
even if this was not there. Satellite based shear obs have lowered to less
than 5kts now. 

Now, there is no inflow into this spin center. It is simply
"there" and the stream wind is in and around it. Until it can start
pulling the wind in and getting extra energy, it's just an observable point,
which I am sure many of you watching this afternoon have seen. However, such
things are noteworthy in relation to the improvement compared to yesterday. 

Look, nothing is off the table here. Even if, after monkeying
around with Florida, it comes westward into the Gulf as the weakness that
would try to pick it up gets erased. 

The other Gulf problem is working its way northwestward off
Central America. I believe this will come into the Gulf, but probably stay
far enough south not to have a huge impact on the States. I think with time,
the GFS will realize that the core of the vorticity with it will come
northward, not split into the Pacific, courtesy of the system developing
south of Mexico now creating a pinwheel for it to work on. This is the system
that we have been talking about since the start of the week and the pressure
fall center looks like it reaches the Mexican coast near 22.5. Someone may
ask, how can it come north (in fact, how is it getting any north component
now) in the face of the ridge to the north? Well, the ridge is in a weakening
stage and as it does, it allows the system to migrate up. This is part of
that theory I was talking about when it comes to direction of movement.
Storms will try to find any weakness they can to move into as they are
constantly looking for a way out. Yesterday, it was Miami discussed that it
would move westward into Central America, but one can plainly see the spin
offshore and gaining some latitude. So this will be another problem. 

And then there is the start of stronger African wave train season,
which by this time next week should be well underway. The Saharan surges are
done for now as the pulse works eastward into the Atlantic Basin. Of course,
the same thing applies here. We already have a vortex in the eastern Atlantic
way up at 20 north. If they can develop and find a a way out early they will.


Obviously, and perhaps rightly so, Miami in there tropical
outlook does not at this juncture does not share the same concerns and so far
I have been overdone on TC 10. 

********** 

FRIDAY NOON COMMENT: COME SE DICE EN ESPANOL NOT OVER YET? 

The diminishing of convection after the nighttime pulse
reveals a low-level swirl has redeveloped with TC 10. Midday runs of most
modeling are now stronger and into the central Bahamas. I will be posting
more extensively on all this later today, along with the pattern overview,
but the overall pattern does favor development farther west with any system.
As a matter of fact, in the spirit of Gaston last year, if something weren't
there, then by the middle of next week, one would look for it anyway. A
current theory I am tossing around is to bring this westward into the
northern Bahamas and stop it or move it northward. 

Again, a new wave is coming from the east, and this is
disrupting inflow. But as this comes westward, and pressures build northeast
of it, the "piling up" factor of air starts to help out. Even the
midday run of the GFS is starting to see it, and the Canadian short-range
rgem, or "Reggie," is even more emphatic. The point is that it's not
over yet, in any language. 

There will be more details on the overall pattern and other
tropical features later. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

FRIDAY,TOO EARLY FOR MOST HUMAN BEINGS: REBOUNDING EASTERN
RIDGE FOLLOWS POOL OF COOL THAT MOVES FROM PLAINS TO NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. TC 10 HAD NO CIRCULATION, BUT CONVECTION FIRES THIS MORNING AS
MODELS TREND WEST...SOME INTO THE GULF. 

5.) August 20th starts my one-month burst period. The towel is
in hand, but it's not thrown yet with TC 10. Canadian ensembles are very
impressed with the idea of the system stalling near Florida and then coming
up next week. In fact, it's so impressive that it will be shown on videos
this morning. 

6.) Only the REGGIE has development of TC 10 on it. The rest
just mosey it along, but keep it an entity. 

7.) A big African wave is now near 5 east. It comes off the
coast on the weekend. 

8.) West Caribbean/west Gulf ideas will be discussed later
this morning. 

Ciao for now. 

SATURDAY
7:15 PM 

THE TROPICS ARE THE TOPIC. 

Close scrutiny of the weather associated with the remnants of
TC10 indicate that the original center is probably not worth the time to look
at. This system has been shadowed the past 5 days by a tropical wave, which
always has seemed to also flair up and by doing so, disrupt, what the front
runner can do. The rotation center detected by Jess eye for the storm guy,
north northeast of San Juan last night was along this wave. That is now
northwest of san Juan. But here is the problem. Until that TAKES
thunderstorms with it, instead of having them die, then refire and there is
large scale inflow, it won’t develop despite what is now very obviously and
upper anticyclone over it. If we see this increase now, or the decrease
tonight is less than the increase tomorrow, it’s a potential problem since if
we discount the UKMETS quick move west with the front system, and simply look
at the overall pattern, this would be sitting a short distance southeast of
Florida for the midweek with a nice pattern overall for development. 

The other low to mid-level system is near 17.7 and 87.0 now
and will cross the Yucatan tonight into tomorrow. I like the ideas I have on
this, that it is going to develop into a storm, but not till west of 92.5
Monday night and landfall will be of a Bret or perhaps Gert latitude. But
there is room for further north...but not much. 

In any case the first big system to come off Africa is
forecasted to naturally recurve, as every single one of them has. I still
like my idea of 20 north and 60 west next weekend, which is simply based on
taking the average of the error we have seen. This is by far the biggest,
best organized one yet. But the models are going wild with more. In fact the
ensembles and the operational runs have a labor day hurricane on the east
coast in what is a wild look. Naturally one can’t trust that exactly, but the
modelling I think is picking up on the coming pattern and hence the look. 

But I still have my hands full, and granted, it’s by my own
design with an end game for the system near Hispaniola. It may be look back
at this and the game should have been over when that recon went in back a few
days ago. But time will tell and for now, I prefer to stay on this until I am
satisfied it’s over. 

ciao for now 

SATURDAY ZONE IDEAS. 

To see the zones, click on glossary text, then region numbers.


5. Tough tough week coming up as remnants TC5 forecasted on
most models to mill around Florida much fo the week. Heavy precip amounts and
lower temps south. Worst case is for sudden development early in the week
over the straits or close by, though move into open gulf as UKMET insists on
would less threat further north. Stay tuned. 

Much more active look developing in tropics requires take each
storm as they come idea. 

8. Front settles along gulf coast and means less humid weather
north of I-20. Thunderstorms to persist near gulf coast mid and late week
though as trof split develops close by. Worry about TC 10 for late week is
valid if regeneration starts as UKMET has shown last 2 runs. See tropical
section below. 

Zone 12. See tropics for details on 1st gulf of Mexico system.
Barring any unwelcome visitors from the tropics, trof split to east should
have little effect once front comes through and dies off. This may be a fast
dying front relative to the summer and much of the area should have above
normal temps, below normal precip next 6-10 days. Worries would be if TC10
regenerates and keeps coming west. To be handled on day to day basis. Again
see tropical section. 

Tropics: 3 systems currently of note: Number 1 is in the
western Caribbean as opined is moving far enough north to get into the gulf
Monday and Tuesday. If system continues to improve overall look tomorrow over
land then it should become a storm before making landfall late Tuesday,
probably south of 23 north. However outside of the increase in showers and
thunderstorms probably no bothersome effect for south Texas. Stay tuned
though as Euro and now UKMET have track of mid-level vortex far enough north
to envision trend north a bit developing. Center of rotation now near 17
north and 86 west (1pm) 

TC 10 is a very complex system with a low level impulse near
21.5 and 72 and obviously something going on behind it. UKMET most bullish on
it, but brings it into central gulf now by Friday and such a path is a
problem in itself. The overall pattern is such that it could raise eyebrows,
if not for westward move and development, the idea it hangs around Florida
does mischief. Posts will be coming fast and furious until this is gone (some
think it is now and may be right). It will be a case of my stubbornness paying
off, of as it sometimes is, being foolish. But again, would rather track
something to the end then quit on it, especially the further west they go. 

Big system now is off Africa and should be near 20 north, 60
west next weekend. 

Ciao for now. 

Sunday 5pm tropical ideas. 

GREAT WAILING AND GNASHING OF TEETH DEVELOPS THIS WEEK IN
THE TROPICS. 

SUNDAY 5:00 P.M.: GREAT WAILING AND GNASHING OF TEETH
DEVELOPS THIS WEEK IN THE TROPICS. 

That will verify, for either this week will go by with no
development, which would put me ten days through a burst period that ends
September 20th, where the following forecasts have been made, at least
seven named storms and at least three landfalls, or every other forecaster
in Florida and the Southeast will be wailing and gnashing, and then perhaps
the Gulf, and lastly the East Coast for what they see coming the following
week. In what is as exciting in pattern potential as I can remember seeing,
we have a European now developing a hurricane out of the wave with its
center north of Hispaniola and bringing it across Florida into the Gulf,
and the GFS with yet another run trying to bring a Labor Day hurricane up
the East Coast. That is sure to disappear on subsequent runs, but one thing
I will say for the model, it sometimes will catch ideas a long way off,
lose them, and then come back to them. 

But let's take things as they come. First of all, the
structure of the wave over the Yucatan has improved this afternoon, and in
the spirit of Bret and Gert, this may develop quickly late and hit Mexico
south of 22.5 north later Tuesday. The trof split has not been nearly as
pronounced as I thought, and in fact, all I see is small upper max tailing
southeastward toward the ridge and hence the front for a change will not do
as good in Texas. Interesting to note in that in preparation for a pattern
that I think will look a lot like mid-June to mid-July, late-summer style,
using the warm water source as the main feedback, fronts had a hard time getting
to Texas through June. The 30-day SOI at -7 now should be back to neutral
in about two weeks given the look of things, and that rapid rise period of
that indice last time correlates nicely to what may happen now.
Interestingly enough, the fall that would follow later in September, if
that is the case, would mean an active end game in the Gulf would be more
likely. But that is putting the cart before the horse. I don't want to
start switching to my to my upcoming analog for fall and winter of 2002/2003
(oops, now I've gone and done it). 

But the main source of wailing and gnashing of teeth is the
shadow of TC 10, the "Jess eye for the storm guy" system. For
those of you wonder what that is, my wife is often called upon, as a
bystander who really is objective about the weather since she really
doesn't care if something develops or not, to make sure I am not
"seeing" things in pictures. Well, I have been getting her and my
9-year old to look at cloud shots and tell me what they see. When they see
a spin that I see (I don't tell them where it is or what I am looking for),
then I know I am not just trying to rev things up. Now Jess and the kids
are swimming, and I am at work, but look, we can all see what is going on.
And in this case, the shadow knows that in the end, it was the system that
would have the chance to develop after all. This afternoon finds banded
thunderstorms spreading into the Bahamas and the center of the midlevel
spin very plainly evident near 20.5 north and 69.5 west. 

Before discussing this further, it is interesting to note
this too has a wave that is following it, but it has never been a part of
it. It's near 60 west and closing fast. If we see a lot of thunderstorms
develop with this and it stops the increasing organization in front of it,
well, then that is a problem. If it happens for a day, then it piles in,
well, then, that just helps it. The best scenario for development of the
shadow of 10 is if it simply piles in. 

But look, this is an awfully impressive setup that can be in
front of us. How so? Well, the ensembles a couple of weeks ago said this
was the week of building pressures in the means over the Northeast and into
the Atlantic, and they sure do that. This means pressure falls in the means
over the Southeast. The look that set off the hurricane burst early is
there, lower-than-average heights all over the place in the Tropics close
to the U.S. mean lower-than-normal pressures in the Tropics. Since the
water is so warm, it means greater-than-normal upward motion. Since building
pressures over the north Atlantic mean falling in the Tropics, I still
think this is one heck of a setup on the way. 

But back to this. The Euro went wild this afternoon as it
brought a slowly-developing system northward to near 28 and 79 by Friday, then
turned the more rapidly-intensifying system west-southwestward through
Florida and into the Gulf. Now there is a chance this could get caught and
escape east, or, as the Canadian model said last night, and its ensembles
said a few days ago, it could come up the East Coast. But I don't think
this pattern is ready for that. I do think it will be as we head toward
Labor Day and September, but not now. But that being said, it does look
like something that could lead to development in Florida's back yard this
week, and then the move into the Gulf is possible. In 1995, we had Erin
come from the southeast into the East Coast and then wind up in the Gulf,
and the lack of the true trof split has made me wonder if we are seeing the
ridge getting ready to crank, first east-west with a strong piece aimed
northeast first and then, like what we are seeing near Japan later this
week, west-southwest, east-northeast for next week. 

But back to the Tropics. The implication is, of course, that
forecasters in the Southeast have their work cut out for them, and in the
end, TC 10 may have not survived because what was behind it was the main
system after all. 

Of course, we have to see this convection and banding hold
its own during the downtick, then come back and increase. The system does
look better organized than 24 hours ago. 

The monster that came off Africa is by far the biggest of
the season. Like many of the storms we have seen this year that wound up
making it to 70 west, this is forecast to curve east of 60. I will reserve
judgment on that for now and stick with the idea it's near 60 west and 20
north next weekend. But there will be something coming from behind it soon
enough, and the screaming message of the GFS and its ensembles and indeed
really most of the modeling, for they all have the pressures low around
Florida later this week, is that we are building it, and they are bound to
come. 

Ciao for now. 

SUNDAY 1:30 PM. 

Been a bit under the weather this morning, sorry for
lateness here. 

REPETITION OF MID JUNE-MID JULY PATTERN, LATE SUMMER
FEEDBACK STYLE IN STORE. 

5) Very difficult tropical pattern discussed in depth later
today. 

Tropics: Yucatan system staying south (no surprise) In the
end it was what was behind TC10 that would be the development if at all.
Ugly mid and late week for Fla. Major system in Cape Verdes right on
schedule, but models pulling usual mid ocean recurve. Parade forecasted now
on most models to start with that. Day 10 on ensembles very interesting
looking in this regard. 

Ciao for now *** 

 

MONDAY
LATE QUICKIE: 

GULF TROPICAL STORM FORMS, BAHAMA SYSTEM SLOWLY GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED. 

By all looks the system in the Bahamas is going to be a big
pain in the glutes for many days. The Euro still takes it into the gulf but
now bombs it up the east coast to near Hatteras, and almost unheard of track,
though in 1944, the little brother of the great Atlantic hurricane came out
of the gulf and up the east coast. Through Saturday I like my ideas, a move
up east of the peninsula, then a cross over into the gulf. With the model
spray ranging from the intense Euro slow moving Carolina coast track, to the
UKMET central gulf by Sunday morning, I think I am bold enough with the ideas
out now. Two things seem certain. Plenty of rain for Florida and strong
onshore winds for the south Atlantic coast later in the week. That though,
would be minor compared to what could happen with a west northwest to
northwest moving storm coming through the northern gulf for the central gulf
coast. 

Stay tuned, ciao for now.

MONDAY MORNING: MORE DETAILED TROPICAL DISCUSSION. 

System one, the southern Gulf: It is almost jaw dropping how
fast this system is coming together. On Saturday, when discussing it, one of
the keys I said was whether it would get better organized over land, a fact
that was pointed out by Miami in one of their discussions yesterday. It is
wasting no time developing, but it will waste no time in going ashore. I
think landfall south of Tampico and probably Tuxpan, as a storm, will be
tomorrow afternoon or night. Again, it came off too far south, and while one
can identify a general threat area days away, knowing whether something comes
off farther south or north by a couple of degrees, is much tougher. It also
has implications for if it's coming out farther north, chances are it will
increase its north component with time, but farther south, it's liable to
straight line right for the coast in this kind of situation, and so it will
be here. 

It's been a long long haul for what was a double feature that
was TC 10, and though I have less reservations about the end game developing
into a tropical storm or hurricane, and probably being an energy disrupting
storm for the Gulf after unloading copious rain on Florida, the way we get
there is tough. One of the things mentioned yesterday as a possible retarding
factor for development is the wave behind it as it is rapidly increasing its
convection. This is not surprising given the pattern pulse of development
that is coming into the southwest Atlantic. However, this has to feed in, not
fight, the front runner or else we wind up where we were with TC 10's front
part, which we can still see just north or near Cuba at about 80 west. But
what I see here is a lot of energy aimed into a place that even if nothing
was there, I would look for something to be there later this week. The call
is for development and a hit on the east coast of Florida between 26 and 29
north Friday as a tropical storm or perhaps minimal hurricane, then the move
into the Gulf where this can become a real problem. One of the storms I am
now looking at is the 1947 New Orleans storm. Once a low-level circulation is
confirmed, then 24-hour pressure and position forecasts will start. That may
be anywhere from 12 hours to two or three days away. But I do think this will
develop, though for Florida, the rain amounts may be the bigger deal over
wind. Should my projections be right about the move westward into the Gulf,
then we have the chance for enhanced development. 

Of course, the fear would be if this spun up and stalled off
Florida and deepened more so before the turn west. I think the window for the
out to sea idea is closing since the system has been so slow and so far
southwest. 

I have no changes on the system in the eastern Atlantic for
now. 

By the way, with the upper feature coming around the trof
later Tuesday and Wednesday, folks on the Virginia Capes and North Carolina
Outer Banks north of Hatteras may get quite summer post-frontal nor'easter as
this moves off with 2-4 inches of rain and gales late tomorrow night into
Wednesday morning. Should this system farther south develop as I am talking
about, it would also mean plenty of rough surf for the Southeast coast later
in the week. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

MONDAY MORNING: ENDLESS SUMMER SWINGS BACK TO JUNE/JULY, BUT
LATE- SUMMER VERSION 

1.) All posts from the weekend, except from 5:00 p.m. Sunday,
are archived. 

2.) The 5:00 p.m. Sunday tropical post sets up tropical ideas.


8.) Tropics (full-scale update later): 

a. Heavy rain will fall in Florida from the developing mid and
late-week tropical storm that could become a major energy threat for the
weekend in the northern Gulf. 

b. There is fast development of the southern Gulf system now,
but it will be ashore by late tomorrow. The system is noteworthy for what it
is saying about eastward spread of pulse. 

c. The eastern Atlantic system is forecast to recurve on most
models, but I still like 60 west, 20 north by Sunday, and then we shall see.
The GFS and overall pattern pulse indicate that a hurricane burst is a good
bet as objective guidance following with the development/upward motion pulse
is coming eastward. 

I will come out with a special later-morning focus on the
Florida problem with the system near 21 and 71 this morning. Please read
below for late yesterday ideas. 

********** 

8:30 pm. 

I will be issuing position forecasts tomorrow when I know
where the center finally shakes out. The call for now is for the storm to
be near hurricane force and cross the Florida peninsula south of 27th north
Thursday night and be in the gulf by noon Friday. Projected second
landfall, of possible major hurricane Monday or Tuesday in... where else,
zone 3 of the hurricane landfall impact chart. I do think this winds up
after landfall heading northeast next week and be near the mid-Atlantic
coast mid and late week. However the official lets grade em numbers will be
out tomorrow. 

I think the system in the Atlantic is a tropical cyclone.
While models are trying to recurve this, they are not shy about what comes
after it, and after that as the GFS and ensembles direct a couple of
tropical cyclones into the southwest Atlantic But enough for now. 

ciao for now **** 

3:30 PM TUESDAY: TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMENT. 

The posts today have been meant to set the stage for what I
think is a slow moving and potentially powerful tropical event. While
increasing the worry about the mid and north Atlantic coast in the end
game, and also raising the specter of the idea it may try to stay up east
of the Peninsula as the GFS is trying to pull, it is not meant to take the
original idea off the table or even relegate to an afterthought… that this
could be a nasty set up as far west as the oil areas of the Gulf. Again,
the 1947 New Orleans storm is in the host of analogs here, but look I am
someone who will level with you. This for me is a hard situation. I have
had an idea about the wave this would behave through Friday into
Saturday... getting into the southeast gulf, but after that I am not at all
confident. I hope to become more confident soon, but until I see that, I am
trying to re-enforce the ideas that have been here for several days, but
open up the other ideas so you know what is going through my head. 

Once the circulation center is christened with a data point
by TPC, then my ideas on movement and intensity will follow. But right now
suffice it say, the idea that this would not go quietly and would be a
player (see posts from late last week in overview and others) are just
steps on the path. One that has its share of twists and turns. 

Ciao for now **** 

MIDDAY TUESDAY: 

SOME COMMENTS ON INCREASING SOUTHEAST THREAT. 

First of all, though I would like it to be, because it would
be a great lesson in persistence, I don’t believe the developing tropical
cyclone in the southeast Bahamas is TC10, but the piece that has been
following it. I guess one could argue that since the piece was hooked with
it much of its life and would flare and compete with the circulation of 10
that was well organized, it is it. However if one looks closely and follows
continuity, and also tropical prediction center analysis, the actual center
of TC10 got way out in front. In fact, that system is forecast by the eta
west through the gulf to near the lower Texas gulf coast by Friday. And
that might be a problem in itself if true, since it comes right under the
200 mb ridge over the western gulf. It’s not like systems in the western
gulf have not intensified. In fact, a look at the eta 60 hour moisture
increments actually shows that moving away. I will be watching this
carefully, not it’s not yet time for Houston, we have a problem. Further
east though, from the eastern perhaps central gulf, and all the way up the
east coast perhaps to New England next week, we probably do. 

I dont know how other forecasters are looking at this, but
this to me is one of the more challenging weather situations I have ever
faced. I will list reasons here 1) Intensity forecast. The fact is that
this system has had something fighting it for a long time, but it is now
getting into an area that traditionally has produced some fast deepening
storms. Cleo in 1964 shocked forecasters with the strength she regained
coming off Cuba for Miami. The Labor day hurricane in the 30s was no big
deal in the Bahamas, but was the strongest ever to hit the US when it went
through the Keys. So simply based on the area, one has to worry. But there
is more. The slow movement over water that is abnormally warm is a problem.
Should the system hook up the feedback, and that is why Jose may have been
a great warning shot as to what can happen, this can deepen with jaw
dropping quickness. But can it. I am worried, that while a day or two away
from such a thing, Such a thing is likely. Consider: This has fought dry
air, shear, competing centers, land masses and here we find it looking
better than ever, with a complete reversal of the upper pattern it has been
fighting occurring. In addition, pressures are low all around it and behind
it, indicating the air overall is growing more unstable and waves are
feeding in. The movement northwest toward the northern and central Bahamas
or waters off the Florida southeast or east coast bring it closer into the
large high building down from the north, enhancing in a couple of days
inflow into the system. In fact about the only negative I see here over the
next 72 hours should it rid itself of what’s left of the dry air, is
Florida itself. By the time it could get onshore, it may have really ramped
up. IT IS IN AN AREA WHERE IF IT STARTED TO ROLL, IT WOULD BE UNUSUAL FOR
IT NOT TO DEVELOP STRONGLY. 

I think the message of the large scale modelling, sans GFS
through this morning and in fact all US modelling is you dont want this to
stay out over the water. In fact the European is deeper on day 8 after
landfall when it’s over the mid-Atlantic states, probably because it
understands the air mass in the way and also can "feel" the pulse
coming from the west. If we look at the westward models, the Canadian and
UKMET which all keep the gulf threat all the way back into Energy land, we
see that this really cranks the further west it gets. But that pulse with
its slow migration east could catch a storm that was near 80 west and 33
north, but had stayed over the water the whole time. And here is problem 2,
the track. 

I am in a quandary here, but I am leaning more to the track
up the east coast. The deepening trof near 140 west, though transient and
replaced quickly by the ridge (which trof that can hook with this would
be... replaced quickly by the rebuilding ridge once it’s by) does argue for
a 2-3 day window for this to be picked up. But it would not be the classic
pick up and get whisked out, but instead crawl up the coast, once again the
idea is the big reversal of the weather pattern from where it was when
Irene turned out. There was no high pressure in the north, this time the
north Atlantic will be covered with it. With water temps to 80 all the way
to Atlantic City, we are setting up for the chance for a very tough set of
circumstances all the way, perhaps to New England. 

While unusual, the track into the eastern Gulf, where it
would be a fight between upwelling and the warm water for the intensity
situation, then up the east coast to the VA Capes is there for the taking.
Interestingly enough, the further east the track is near Florida, the more
westward the component may be further north, but that I mean a storm
hitting near Pensacola or Apalachicola may just as easily wind up over the
Delmarva as one missing Florida to the east, because if one looks, the big
pressure and height anomalies provide for more blocking further north. 

But of course it’s one step at a time here. South Florida,
the northern and central Bahamas and yes the east coast of Florida are the
first to have to consider the chance of a slow moving, and quickly
intensifying storm marring their weather picture. Whether one wants to call
if TC10 or not, it looks like it may justify some of the hype about the pattern
we are entering. At the very least, it looks like if not a weather problem,
it is a weather forecast problem 

More later 

ciao for now 
 
 
**** 

AS DIFFICULT A SUMMER SEASON PATTERN AS I HAVE EVER SEEN
FROM CENTRAL GULF TO NEW ENGLAND NEXT 7-10 DAYS MAY SIMPLY BE ONE OF
SEVERAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. 

A complete tropical post will come up later today, but as is
my habit when posting more tropics one day I like to talk about the other
areas of the nation and the overall pattern the next. 

But the real headaches are further southeast, Florida where
anywhere from a weak tropical storm to a full blown hurricane ( it really
looks like this will kick off the shear now) can cause copious rains, and
then either west into the gulf or up the east coast. I will be posting
later today on this. 

The worst case for the east coast...it never hits Florida,
stays just offshore then comes up into the Carolinas and beyond. For the
gulf, the UKMET says it all. For all of us, the interaction between all
these things reminds me of something Thoreau said. The sum of all our
fictions add up to a joint reality... Well this pattern is a sum all the
parts we have been talking about and the interaction of the tropics and the
westerlies is such that one compliments the other. The sum of all the
pattern parts is adding up to a joint reality, one that is cloaked in
attempts at discerning facts, from fiction. 

Ciao for now. 

***** 

TUESDAY AM: GFS ON POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST STORM QUOTES SARGENT
SHULTZ FROM HOGANS HEROES: I SEE NOTHING, NOTHING DOES SEE HEAT FROM TEXAS
TO ONTARIO THOUGH. 

1) Either the greatest, or worst GFS tropical wise for the
southeast ever as it defies all other guidance and has nothing out
developing tropical cyclone over Bahamas. UKMET has major central gulf
hurricane hit early next week. Euro goes up the southeast coast, Canadian
in between. 

2) Jose has formed and hit, Major mid-Atlantic wave still
coming west 

3) Tropics will be late morning post. I like ideas from
yesterday I had. Florida gets soaked, southeast coast gets plenty of rough
surf but call next week tough as it may deepen northeast up along coast.
New tropical cyclone now christened by me in the Atlantic at 16 north and
35 west. Vigorous large circulation with convection starting to develop.
Models recurve. I have no changes on it from earlier ideas into the
upcoming weekend. Note: "Sudden" development seen on global
models of as many as 3 storms (Canadian) next 5-7 days indicative of large
scale development pulse working east. Jose's rapid ramp up should have
forecasters wary of the system in the Bahamas now as this pulse spreads
east, though land interaction can hinder 

4) No denying summers not dying with arc of heat Texas to
plains to Ontario. Mid Atlantic and northeast heat dependent on tropics
next week. 5) Trof wants to continue to dump into Pac northwest. Sudden
shortening of wavelengths to be big problem 

Note: Mini post frontal Nor’easter develops for VA capes and
NC coast north of Hatteras tonight and heads out. 3-5 inches of rain and
gales possible by morning. System does not hang around though 

ciao for now ****  
 

WEDNESDAY: ENDLESS SUMMER PATTERN ARISES AND TROPICAL
PULSE SPRINGS FORTH. 

The water temperature profile around the continent bears a
striking resemblance to the pattern in late summer 2002. This was a
weakish El Nino that still flabbergasts me that with the most active
naming month on record, and with two category 4 storms in the Gulf within
ten days, was somehow listed as a down year for hurricanes because of the
El Nino. In any case, we are looking similar to that overall. And here's
where people who aren't affected by the Tropics have to understand how
important the Tropics are, for THEY DO AFFECT YOU, that these signals
lead to a very warm September nationwide. And so we are rolling out of
August into September looking much like that. The same kind of pattern
that may lead to five more names by September 20th (we have had two
already since August 20th) may go hand in hand with the same pattern that
is leading to the widespread warmth. It is interesting to note that weak
El Nino seasons such as 2002 and 1969 with higher-than-average hurricane
intensity production in the Gulf had cold winters behind them east of the
Mississippi. Enough said about that. 

For East Coast residents, the tropical outlook this
morning was meant to show the danger of this pattern with that trof near
the West Coast the way it is in the means. The storm shown was Carol in
1954. The current situation is such that the pattern pulse is very
definitely arriving, one only need look at the increase in convective
systems in the Atlantic. 

Katrina: 

The steady improvement of the storm's structure and the
reversal of the pattern aloft means a very dangerous situation for the
southeast Florida coast as jaw-dropping intensification is possible
before landfall, and the hurricane center, aware of this, is letting
people know with the hurricane watch. I am hoping people understand that
from West Palm southward, this is probably worse than any of the
hurricanes last year, and they are not caught off guard. The storm will
slow a bit and turn more to the west tonight, but I do not believe the
U.S. models in the least as I think this will get into the Gulf and far
enough out there, so I am not trending eastward at this time with the
path. The European, Japanese model and even the GFDL are all much farther
west in the Gulf. Modeling is divided into two camps, and right now,
ideas from a few days ago are working just fine. In fact, the position of
the storm is well ahead of just fine. In fact, the position of the storm
is well ahead of model forecasts. The danger is that the storm can have a
20- to 30-mb drop before landfall easily, and can be a category 2 should
landfall be delayed until tomorrow night, and that looks like it will be
between Miami and West Palm. 

The screaming message of the GFDL with its tremendous
deepening on the last two runs is that the overall pattern is ripe for
development. Its mistake is the turn southwestward under Florida. But all
modeling show the storm deepening once over the water west of Florida,
indicating at the very least the pattern is there. 

My track and numbers speak for themselves. The wildest
model is the Canadian with its 28.83 low over Atlantic City next Tuesday
morning, the second run in a row of the monster that deepens northeast.
This is because the system is surrounded by favorable development
parameters, and the European idea is not far behind. I think the
post-landfall path in relation to the East Coast is a cross between Ivan
and Jeanne, though there will be no turnaround of this storm, but the
threat it becomes a hurricane again near the mid-Atlantic coast as it
comes over flat ground, with bay temperatures near 85 and ocean
temperatures near 80. The forecast, though, stands as is. 

Basically I am relying on the amplification I see over the
Pacific, because although transient, the downstream response should be to
hook up with Katrina and bring it to the mid-Atlantic coast as a deep
hybrid with heavy rain, high winds and severe weather. 

Once past this, the overall pattern still has the same
places candidates for development in the longer range. Katrina won't be
our last challenge, though she is posing quite a challenge. 

Note: It is possible that both zones 5 and 3 get their
impact points in one fell swoop as this could be category 2's in both
places. Impact points for the U.S. total are only scored with storms at
their closest approach to a zone from the water, not when inland, so
while a place like the Carolina zone will get points, they won't count to
the seasonal total for the entire U.S. impact, just the zone total. This
is, of course, another attempt to become more definitive in forecasting
and assessing the season. The final point totals will be determined at
the end of the year and will include in TPC ideas on intensity of
systems. The storm will probably score at least 2's all the way to New
England as far as zone effects go. Please read the hurricane forecast for
how this works. 

Ciao for now. 

No changes on Katrina as far as path and intensity go as
models are at war with the path. I feel the end game sticks this over the
mid-Atlantic states the middle of next week with pressures and winds as forecasted
below. The rate of intensification should increase and rapid development
may take place before the first landfall. Additional comments are coming
with the post later. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY 12:30 P.M.: POSITION IDEA BELOW. KATRINA LOOKING
MEANA. 

The track and intensity posts below are similar to TPC in
track, but stronger on the intensity, based on the idea that the storm
will be very close to hurricane strength at landfall tomorrow and its
structure will improve as it continues westward across South Florida. It
is one thing for the storm to hit at its strongest point, have its inner
core destroyed and then have to overcome the outer bands that are not
destroyed competing with it. This is why we hit the intensity forecast so
well with storms that hit land, such as Dennis and Emily, knowing it
would take a while for them to roar back, but that they would. In the
case of Isadore, which we also hit in that we said it was never going to
make it back until the very end, it was a matter of the storm being over
land so long it became like a giant non-tropical system with all the
strong winds so far away, only until the center started moving toward the
wind did it start to come back. As long as Katrina keeps moving over
Florida, it will come out and probably be back to its pre-landfall
intensity, providing that is not anything beyond a category 1 hurricane,
within 24 hours. 

But let's examine this intensity issue before and after
first landfall. There is a chance this could really ramp up fast in the
last 12 hours, and I, for one, am nervous about this. Because it will hit
Florida almost perpendicular from the east, and the farther west it goes,
the warmer the water is, the better this pattern, the greater the pulse
signal part of the pattern, the more risk there is. Again, some
noteworthy storms have blown up in the last 12 hours, and the idea from
the hurricane center that a hurricane warning may be needed is well worth
everyone's while. This is why the 6z GFDL went bonkers on intensity. It
sees the parameters for development improving farther west and north.
While the combination of the storm still organizing and the remnants of
the strong northeast flow aloft can limit development this afternoon, by
tomorrow at this time, that is gone. It is, to be blunt, scary stuff. In
fact, by tomorrow morning, the 200/850 couplet is as perfect as I could
have drawn. 

Essential to the second spurt is the idea the storm gets
more than 100 miles away from the west coast of Florida. The in-close
storm on west of the peninsula rarely will intensify if it had been
strong, or is strong. The fact is the storm pulls dry air in from the
east and causes upwelling. So it has to get out away from the coast. This
is a case where track and intensity in the Gulf go hand in hand in scratching
each other's backs. 

I don't think there is much doubt this will turn northeast
of 90, and right now my landfall point is between 86 and 87 for the
second landfall. If it gets out there like that, while the GFDL may be
overdone, then it can develop to a category 2 or 3. 

The major amplification (though transient and brief, is
definitely there, near 145 west and 165 east) supplies the ammo for the
recurve and us winding up with a formidable storm all the way to the
mid-Atlantic states. A piece of the trof that comes through the Lakes
should tail southward into the Ohio Valley and pick this up Monday or
Tuesday, so it's doubtful the western Gulf has to worry. I feel this
system will be surrounded by warm, moist tropical air in its overland
journey. Unlike Charley, which was a small storm coming into a building
ridge, this will be tugging on air well above normal temperature-wise and
dew point-wise Monday and Tuesday with a warm ocean that it can run to.
We have seen cases like this where storms have weakened to nearly
tropical storm status, or below, then come roaring back as they
approached the coast. With 80-degree water temperatures all the way to
Atlantic City, the moral is, the farther east the track, the worse the
storm will be up the coast, though, of course, the less the problem on
the Gulf side of things. In fact, this should score impact points all the
way to New England before it's all said and done. The intensity and track
forecast speak for themselves right now. Interestingly enough, even if the
GFS idea of this staying near or off Florida's east coast was right, it
would still probably wind up near the mid-Atlantic coast as the
parameters that it is in a big argument about have to do with the ridge
over the south and how much it can push it westward. The U.S. models have
been in their own world the entire time on this, be it not seeing the
storm or keeping it farther out. 

ONE IMPORTANT POINT... A TREND FARTHER EAST SOUTH OF 30
NORTH DOES LOOK MORE LIKELY TO ME THAN ONE WEST, and this was the point
yesterday. I will update tracks as need be on this. 

In the wake of this, there is no rest as by late next
week, another threat may be looming. The increase in convection now
evident all the way into the Atlantic to 55 west is a sign this pulse is
getting established, and so the track race talked about may indeed be
underway as discussed. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY 10:30 A.M.: 

Here are my forecast positions and intensities on Katrina.
A major tropical discussion will follow later today. 

12z Thursday August 25: 26.5/78.8, 994 mb, 55 knots. 

12z Friday August 26: 27.0/81.0, 994 mb, 55 knots. 

12z Saturday August 27: 27.0/83.0, 988 mb, 65 knots. 

12z Sunday August 28: 28.0/85.0, 974 mb, 80 knots. 

12z Monday August 29: 30.0/86.8, 965 mb, 95 knots. 

12z Tuesday August 30: 33.0/84.8, 985 mb, 45 knots. 

12z Wednesday August 31: 36.0/81.8, 992 mb, 40 knots. 

12z Thursday September 1: 38.0/73.0, 992 mb, 50 knots. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY MORNING (EARLY) : LET THE GAMES BEGIN. 

 3.) Amplified trofs near 145 west and 165 east imply
southern branch trof split next week near 90 that should pick up what I
think will become a GULF storm, but will make it wind up over the mid-
Atlantic states the middle of next week. Possible track after second landfall
is a cross between Ivan and Jeanne. 

4.) There are many tough forecast issues with the storm,
outlined in previous posts (please refer to them). Track/intensity
guidance for you will be out around noon as the center should be
established. The GFS simply adds to the confusion, as usual, with any
big-ticket developing weather feature. Yesterday it didn't have it on 00z
run, now its way east. Its rack up east of 80 is as likely a path that
takes it west of 90. Right now my gut says category 2 or perhaps 3
hurricane hits in hurricane impact map zone 3 on second landfall. 

5.) Overall pattern says this is not the last one. Ten
days from now, a new storm will be in the same general area, and we may
see as many as two or three threats for the East Coast and Gulf during
the bursting period. NOTICE HOW CONVECTION, JUST LIKE IN THE EARLY
SEASON, INCREASES MARKEDLY WEST OF 60 AS LATEST TROPICAL WAVE IS BLOWING
UP THERE. That is part of the pattern pulse theory. 

6.) The central Atlantic tropical cyclone continues
westward. The theory is that it recurves and the aforementioned threat
comes from the next system. 

Ciao for now. 

Sunday 5pm tropical ideas. 

GREAT WAILING AND GNASHING OF TEETH DEVELOPS THIS WEEK IN
THE TROPICS. 

SUNDAY 5:00 P.M.: GREAT WAILING AND GNASHING OF TEETH
DEVELOPS THIS WEEK IN THE TROPICS. 

That will verify, for either this week will go by with no
development, which would put me ten days through a burst period that ends
September 20th, where the following forecasts have been made, at least
seven named storms and at least three landfalls, or every other forecaster
in Florida and the Southeast will be wailing and gnashing, and then perhaps
the Gulf, and lastly the East Coast for what they see coming the following
week. In what is as exciting in pattern potential as I can remember seeing,
we have a European now developing a hurricane out of the wave with its
center north of Hispaniola and bringing it across Florida into the Gulf,
and the GFS with yet another run trying to bring a Labor Day hurricane up
the East Coast. That is sure to disappear on subsequent runs, but one thing
I will say for the model, it sometimes will catch ideas a long way off,
lose them, and then come back to them. 

But let's take things as they come. First of all, the
structure of the wave over the Yucatan has improved this afternoon, and in
the spirit of Bret and Gert, this may develop quickly late and hit Mexico
south of 22.5 north later Tuesday. The trof split has not been nearly as
pronounced as I thought, and in fact, all I see is small upper max tailing
southeastward toward the ridge and hence the front for a change will not do
as good in Texas. Interesting to note in that in preparation for a pattern
that I think will look a lot like mid-June to mid-July, late-summer style,
using the warm water source as the main feedback, fronts had a hard time getting
to Texas through June. The 30-day SOI at -7 now should be back to neutral
in about two weeks given the look of things, and that rapid rise period of
that indice last time correlates nicely to what may happen now.
Interestingly enough, the fall that would follow later in September, if
that is the case, would mean an active end game in the Gulf would be more
likely. But that is putting the cart before the horse. I don't want to
start switching to my to my upcoming analog for fall and winter of 2002/2003
(oops, now I've gone and done it). 

But the main source of wailing and gnashing of teeth is the
shadow of TC 10, the "Jess eye for the storm guy" system. For
those of you wonder what that is, my wife is often called upon, as a
bystander who really is objective about the weather since she really
doesn't care if something develops or not, to make sure I am not
"seeing" things in pictures. Well, I have been getting her and my
9-year old to look at cloud shots and tell me what they see. When they see
a spin that I see (I don't tell them where it is or what I am looking for),
then I know I am not just trying to rev things up. Now Jess and the kids
are swimming, and I am at work, but look, we can all see what is going on.
And in this case, the shadow knows that in the end, it was the system that
would have the chance to develop after all. This afternoon finds banded
thunderstorms spreading into the Bahamas and the center of the midlevel
spin very plainly evident near 20.5 north and 69.5 west. 

Before discussing this further, it is interesting to note
this too has a wave that is following it, but it has never been a part of
it. It's near 60 west and closing fast. If we see a lot of thunderstorms
develop with this and it stops the increasing organization in front of it,
well, then that is a problem. If it happens for a day, then it piles in,
well, then, that just helps it. The best scenario for development of the
shadow of 10 is if it simply piles in. 

But look, this is an awfully impressive setup that can be in
front of us. How so? Well, the ensembles a couple of weeks ago said this
was the week of building pressures in the means over the Northeast and into
the Atlantic, and they sure do that. This means pressure falls in the means
over the Southeast. The look that set off the hurricane burst early is
there, lower-than-average heights all over the place in the Tropics close
to the U.S. mean lower-than-normal pressures in the Tropics. Since the
water is so warm, it means greater-than-normal upward motion. Since building
pressures over the north Atlantic mean falling in the Tropics, I still
think this is one heck of a setup on the way. 

But back to this. The Euro went wild this afternoon as it
brought a slowly-developing system northward to near 28 and 79 by Friday, then
turned the more rapidly-intensifying system west-southwestward through
Florida and into the Gulf. Now there is a chance this could get caught and
escape east, or, as the Canadian model said last night, and its ensembles
said a few days ago, it could come up the East Coast. But I don't think
this pattern is ready for that. I do think it will be as we head toward
Labor Day and September, but not now. But that being said, it does look
like something that could lead to development in Florida's back yard this
week, and then the move into the Gulf is possible. In 1995, we had Erin
come from the southeast into the East Coast and then wind up in the Gulf,
and the lack of the true trof split has made me wonder if we are seeing the
ridge getting ready to crank, first east-west with a strong piece aimed
northeast first and then, like what we are seeing near Japan later this
week, west-southwest, east-northeast for next week. 

But back to the Tropics. The implication is, of course, that
forecasters in the Southeast have their work cut out for them, and in the
end, TC 10 may have not survived because what was behind it was the main
system after all. 

Of course, we have to see this convection and banding hold
its own during the downtick, then come back and increase. The system does
look better organized than 24 hours ago. 

The monster that came off Africa is by far the biggest of
the season. Like many of the storms we have seen this year that wound up
making it to 70 west, this is forecast to curve east of 60. I will reserve
judgment on that for now and stick with the idea it's near 60 west and 20
north next weekend. But there will be something coming from behind it soon
enough, and the screaming message of the GFS and its ensembles and indeed
really most of the modeling, for they all have the pressures low around
Florida later this week, is that we are building it, and they are bound to
come. 

Ciao for now. 

SUNDAY 1:30 PM. 

Been a bit under the weather this morning, sorry for
lateness here. 

REPETITION OF MID JUNE-MID JULY PATTERN, LATE SUMMER
FEEDBACK STYLE IN STORE. 

5) Very difficult tropical pattern discussed in depth later
today. 

Tropics: Yucatan system staying south (no surprise) In the
end it was what was behind TC10 that would be the development if at all.
Ugly mid and late week for Fla. Major system in Cape Verdes right on
schedule, but models pulling usual mid ocean recurve. Parade forecasted now
on most models to start with that. Day 10 on ensembles very interesting
looking in this regard. 

Ciao for now 
*** 

8:30 pm. 

I will be issuing position forecasts tomorrow when I know
where the center finally shakes out. The call for now is for the storm to
be near hurricane force and cross the Florida peninsula south of 27th north
Thursday night and be in the gulf by noon Friday. Projected second
landfall, of possible major hurricane Monday or Tuesday in... where else,
zone 3 of the hurricane landfall impact chart. I do think this winds up
after landfall heading northeast next week and be near the mid-Atlantic
coast mid and late week. However the official lets grade em numbers will be
out tomorrow. 

I think the system in the Atlantic is a tropical cyclone.
While models are trying to recurve this, they are not shy about what comes
after it, and after that as the GFS and ensembles direct a couple of
tropical cyclones into the southwest Atlantic But enough for now. 

ciao for now **** 

3:30 PM TUESDAY: TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMENT. 

The posts today have been meant to set the stage for what I
think is a slow moving and potentially powerful tropical event. While
increasing the worry about the mid and north Atlantic coast in the end
game, and also raising the specter of the idea it may try to stay up east
of the Peninsula as the GFS is trying to pull, it is not meant to take the
original idea off the table or even relegate to an afterthought… that this
could be a nasty set up as far west as the oil areas of the Gulf. Again,
the 1947 New Orleans storm is in the host of analogs here, but look I am
someone who will level with you. This for me is a hard situation. I have
had an idea about the wave this would behave through Friday into
Saturday... getting into the southeast gulf, but after that I am not at all
confident. I hope to become more confident soon, but until I see that, I am
trying to re-enforce the ideas that have been here for several days, but
open up the other ideas so you know what is going through my head. 

Once the circulation center is christened with a data point
by TPC, then my ideas on movement and intensity will follow. But right now
suffice it say, the idea that this would not go quietly and would be a
player (see posts from late last week in overview and others) are just
steps on the path. One that has its share of twists and turns. 

Ciao for now **** 

MIDDAY TUESDAY: 

SOME COMMENTS ON INCREASING SOUTHEAST THREAT. 

First of all, though I would like it to be, because it would
be a great lesson in persistence, I don’t believe the developing tropical
cyclone in the southeast Bahamas is TC10, but the piece that has been
following it. I guess one could argue that since the piece was hooked with
it much of its life and would flare and compete with the circulation of 10
that was well organized, it is it. However if one looks closely and follows
continuity, and also tropical prediction center analysis, the actual center
of TC10 got way out in front. In fact, that system is forecast by the eta
west through the gulf to near the lower Texas gulf coast by Friday. And
that might be a problem in itself if true, since it comes right under the
200 mb ridge over the western gulf. It’s not like systems in the western
gulf have not intensified. In fact, a look at the eta 60 hour moisture
increments actually shows that moving away. I will be watching this
carefully, not it’s not yet time for Houston, we have a problem. Further
east though, from the eastern perhaps central gulf, and all the way up the
east coast perhaps to New England next week, we probably do. 

I dont know how other forecasters are looking at this, but
this to me is one of the more challenging weather situations I have ever
faced. I will list reasons here 1) Intensity forecast. The fact is that
this system has had something fighting it for a long time, but it is now
getting into an area that traditionally has produced some fast deepening
storms. Cleo in 1964 shocked forecasters with the strength she regained
coming off Cuba for Miami. The Labor day hurricane in the 30s was no big
deal in the Bahamas, but was the strongest ever to hit the US when it went
through the Keys. So simply based on the area, one has to worry. But there
is more. The slow movement over water that is abnormally warm is a problem.
Should the system hook up the feedback, and that is why Jose may have been
a great warning shot as to what can happen, this can deepen with jaw
dropping quickness. But can it. I am worried, that while a day or two away
from such a thing, Such a thing is likely. Consider: This has fought dry
air, shear, competing centers, land masses and here we find it looking
better than ever, with a complete reversal of the upper pattern it has been
fighting occurring. In addition, pressures are low all around it and behind
it, indicating the air overall is growing more unstable and waves are
feeding in. The movement northwest toward the northern and central Bahamas
or waters off the Florida southeast or east coast bring it closer into the
large high building down from the north, enhancing in a couple of days
inflow into the system. In fact about the only negative I see here over the
next 72 hours should it rid itself of what’s left of the dry air, is
Florida itself. By the time it could get onshore, it may have really ramped
up. IT IS IN AN AREA WHERE IF IT STARTED TO ROLL, IT WOULD BE UNUSUAL FOR
IT NOT TO DEVELOP STRONGLY. 

I think the message of the large scale modelling, sans GFS
through this morning and in fact all US modelling is you dont want this to
stay out over the water. In fact the European is deeper on day 8 after
landfall when it’s over the mid-Atlantic states, probably because it
understands the air mass in the way and also can "feel" the pulse
coming from the west. If we look at the westward models, the Canadian and
UKMET which all keep the gulf threat all the way back into Energy land, we
see that this really cranks the further west it gets. But that pulse with
its slow migration east could catch a storm that was near 80 west and 33
north, but had stayed over the water the whole time. And here is problem 2,
the track. 

I am in a quandary here, but I am leaning more to the track
up the east coast. The deepening trof near 140 west, though transient and
replaced quickly by the ridge (which trof that can hook with this would
be... replaced quickly by the rebuilding ridge once it’s by) does argue for
a 2-3 day window for this to be picked up. But it would not be the classic
pick up and get whisked out, but instead crawl up the coast, once again the
idea is the big reversal of the weather pattern from where it was when
Irene turned out. There was no high pressure in the north, this time the
north Atlantic will be covered with it. With water temps to 80 all the way
to Atlantic City, we are setting up for the chance for a very tough set of
circumstances all the way, perhaps to New England. 

While unusual, the track into the eastern Gulf, where it
would be a fight between upwelling and the warm water for the intensity
situation, then up the east coast to the VA Capes is there for the taking.
Interestingly enough, the further east the track is near Florida, the more
westward the component may be further north, but that I mean a storm
hitting near Pensacola or Apalachicola may just as easily wind up over the
Delmarva as one missing Florida to the east, because if one looks, the big
pressure and height anomalies provide for more blocking further north. 

But of course it’s one step at a time here. South Florida,
the northern and central Bahamas and yes the east coast of Florida are the
first to have to consider the chance of a slow moving, and quickly
intensifying storm marring their weather picture. Whether one wants to call
if TC10 or not, it looks like it may justify some of the hype about the pattern
we are entering. At the very least, it looks like if not a weather problem,
it is a weather forecast problem 

More later 

ciao for now 

**** 

AS DIFFICULT A SUMMER SEASON PATTERN AS I HAVE EVER SEEN
FROM CENTRAL GULF TO NEW ENGLAND NEXT 7-10 DAYS MAY SIMPLY BE ONE OF
SEVERAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. 

A complete tropical post will come up later today, but as is
my habit when posting more tropics one day I like to talk about the other
areas of the nation and the overall pattern the next. 

But the real headaches are further southeast, Florida where
anywhere from a weak tropical storm to a full blown hurricane ( it really
looks like this will kick off the shear now) can cause copious rains, and
then either west into the gulf or up the east coast. I will be posting
later today on this. 

The worst case for the east coast...it never hits Florida,
stays just offshore then comes up into the Carolinas and beyond. For the
gulf, the UKMET says it all. For all of us, the interaction between all
these things reminds me of something Thoreau said. The sum of all our
fictions add up to a joint reality... Well this pattern is a sum all the
parts we have been talking about and the interaction of the tropics and the
westerlies is such that one compliments the other. The sum of all the
pattern parts is adding up to a joint reality, one that is cloaked in
attempts at discerning facts, from fiction. 

Ciao for now. 

***** 

TUESDAY AM: GFS ON POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST STORM QUOTES SARGENT
SHULTZ FROM HOGANS HEROES: I SEE NOTHING, NOTHING DOES SEE HEAT FROM TEXAS
TO ONTARIO THOUGH. 

1) Either the greatest, or worst GFS tropical wise for the
southeast ever as it defies all other guidance and has nothing out
developing tropical cyclone over Bahamas. UKMET has major central gulf
hurricane hit early next week. Euro goes up the southeast coast, Canadian
in between. 

2) Jose has formed and hit, Major mid-Atlantic wave still
coming west 

3) Tropics will be late morning post. I like ideas from
yesterday I had. Florida gets soaked, southeast coast gets plenty of rough
surf but call next week tough as it may deepen northeast up along coast.
New tropical cyclone now christened by me in the Atlantic at 16 north and
35 west. Vigorous large circulation with convection starting to develop.
Models recurve. I have no changes on it from earlier ideas into the
upcoming weekend. Note: "Sudden" development seen on global
models of as many as 3 storms (Canadian) next 5-7 days indicative of large
scale development pulse working east. Jose's rapid ramp up should have
forecasters wary of the system in the Bahamas now as this pulse spreads
east, though land interaction can hinder 

4) No denying summers not dying with arc of heat Texas to
plains to Ontario. Mid Atlantic and northeast heat dependent on tropics
next week. 5) Trof wants to continue to dump into Pac northwest. Sudden
shortening of wavelengths to be big problem 

Note: Mini post frontal Nor’easter develops for VA capes and
NC coast north of Hatteras tonight and heads out. 3-5 inches of rain and
gales possible by morning. System does not hang around though 

ciao for now ****

WEDNESDAY: ENDLESS SUMMER PATTERN ARISES AND TROPICAL
PULSE SPRINGS FORTH. 

The water temperature profile around the continent bears a
striking resemblance to the pattern in late summer 2002. This was a
weakish El Nino that still flabbergasts me that with the most active
naming month on record, and with two category 4 storms in the Gulf within
ten days, was somehow listed as a down year for hurricanes because of the
El Nino. In any case, we are looking similar to that overall. And here's
where people who aren't affected by the Tropics have to understand how
important the Tropics are, for THEY DO AFFECT YOU, that these signals
lead to a very warm September nationwide. And so we are rolling out of
August into September looking much like that. The same kind of pattern
that may lead to five more names by September 20th (we have had two
already since August 20th) may go hand in hand with the same pattern that
is leading to the widespread warmth. It is interesting to note that weak
El Nino seasons such as 2002 and 1969 with higher-than-average hurricane
intensity production in the Gulf had cold winters behind them east of the
Mississippi. Enough said about that. 

For East Coast residents, the tropical outlook this
morning was meant to show the danger of this pattern with that trof near
the West Coast the way it is in the means. The storm shown was Carol in
1954. The current situation is such that the pattern pulse is very
definitely arriving, one only need look at the increase in convective
systems in the Atlantic. 

Katrina: 

The steady improvement of the storm's structure and the
reversal of the pattern aloft means a very dangerous situation for the
southeast Florida coast as jaw-dropping intensification is possible
before landfall, and the hurricane center, aware of this, is letting
people know with the hurricane watch. I am hoping people understand that
from West Palm southward, this is probably worse than any of the
hurricanes last year, and they are not caught off guard. The storm will
slow a bit and turn more to the west tonight, but I do not believe the
U.S. models in the least as I think this will get into the Gulf and far
enough out there, so I am not trending eastward at this time with the
path. The European, Japanese model and even the GFDL are all much farther
west in the Gulf. Modeling is divided into two camps, and right now,
ideas from a few days ago are working just fine. In fact, the position of
the storm is well ahead of just fine. In fact, the position of the storm
is well ahead of model forecasts. The danger is that the storm can have a
20- to 30-mb drop before landfall easily, and can be a category 2 should
landfall be delayed until tomorrow night, and that looks like it will be
between Miami and West Palm. 

The screaming message of the GFDL with its tremendous
deepening on the last two runs is that the overall pattern is ripe for
development. Its mistake is the turn southwestward under Florida. But all
modeling show the storm deepening once over the water west of Florida,
indicating at the very least the pattern is there. 

My track and numbers speak for themselves. The wildest
model is the Canadian with its 28.83 low over Atlantic City next Tuesday
morning, the second run in a row of the monster that deepens northeast.
This is because the system is surrounded by favorable development
parameters, and the European idea is not far behind. I think the
post-landfall path in relation to the East Coast is a cross between Ivan
and Jeanne, though there will be no turnaround of this storm, but the
threat it becomes a hurricane again near the mid-Atlantic coast as it
comes over flat ground, with bay temperatures near 85 and ocean
temperatures near 80. The forecast, though, stands as is. 

Basically I am relying on the amplification I see over the
Pacific, because although transient, the downstream response should be to
hook up with Katrina and bring it to the mid-Atlantic coast as a deep
hybrid with heavy rain, high winds and severe weather. 

Once past this, the overall pattern still has the same
places candidates for development in the longer range. Katrina won't be
our last challenge, though she is posing quite a challenge. 

Note: It is possible that both zones 5 and 3 get their
impact points in one fell swoop as this could be category 2's in both
places. Impact points for the U.S. total are only scored with storms at
their closest approach to a zone from the water, not when inland, so
while a place like the Carolina zone will get points, they won't count to
the seasonal total for the entire U.S. impact, just the zone total. This
is, of course, another attempt to become more definitive in forecasting
and assessing the season. The final point totals will be determined at
the end of the year and will include in TPC ideas on intensity of
systems. The storm will probably score at least 2's all the way to New
England as far as zone effects go. Please read the hurricane forecast for
how this works. 

Ciao for now. 

No changes on Katrina as far as path and intensity go as
models are at war with the path. I feel the end game sticks this over the
mid-Atlantic states the middle of next week with pressures and winds as forecasted
below. The rate of intensification should increase and rapid development
may take place before the first landfall. Additional comments are coming
with the post later. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY 12:30 P.M.: POSITION IDEA BELOW. KATRINA LOOKING
MEANA. 

The track and intensity posts below are similar to TPC in
track, but stronger on the intensity, based on the idea that the storm
will be very close to hurricane strength at landfall tomorrow and its
structure will improve as it continues westward across South Florida. It
is one thing for the storm to hit at its strongest point, have its inner
core destroyed and then have to overcome the outer bands that are not
destroyed competing with it. This is why we hit the intensity forecast so
well with storms that hit land, such as Dennis and Emily, knowing it
would take a while for them to roar back, but that they would. In the
case of Isadore, which we also hit in that we said it was never going to
make it back until the very end, it was a matter of the storm being over
land so long it became like a giant non-tropical system with all the
strong winds so far away, only until the center started moving toward the
wind did it start to come back. As long as Katrina keeps moving over
Florida, it will come out and probably be back to its pre-landfall
intensity, providing that is not anything beyond a category 1 hurricane,
within 24 hours. 

But let's examine this intensity issue before and after
first landfall. There is a chance this could really ramp up fast in the
last 12 hours, and I, for one, am nervous about this. Because it will hit
Florida almost perpendicular from the east, and the farther west it goes,
the warmer the water is, the better this pattern, the greater the pulse
signal part of the pattern, the more risk there is. Again, some
noteworthy storms have blown up in the last 12 hours, and the idea from
the hurricane center that a hurricane warning may be needed is well worth
everyone's while. This is why the 6z GFDL went bonkers on intensity. It
sees the parameters for development improving farther west and north.
While the combination of the storm still organizing and the remnants of
the strong northeast flow aloft can limit development this afternoon, by
tomorrow at this time, that is gone. It is, to be blunt, scary stuff. In
fact, by tomorrow morning, the 200/850 couplet is as perfect as I could
have drawn. 

Essential to the second spurt is the idea the storm gets
more than 100 miles away from the west coast of Florida. The in-close
storm on west of the peninsula rarely will intensify if it had been
strong, or is strong. The fact is the storm pulls dry air in from the
east and causes upwelling. So it has to get out away from the coast. This
is a case where track and intensity in the Gulf go hand in hand in scratching
each other's backs. 

I don't think there is much doubt this will turn northeast
of 90, and right now my landfall point is between 86 and 87 for the
second landfall. If it gets out there like that, while the GFDL may be
overdone, then it can develop to a category 2 or 3. 

The major amplification (though transient and brief, is
definitely there, near 145 west and 165 east) supplies the ammo for the
recurve and us winding up with a formidable storm all the way to the
mid-Atlantic states. A piece of the trof that comes through the Lakes
should tail southward into the Ohio Valley and pick this up Monday or
Tuesday, so it's doubtful the western Gulf has to worry. I feel this
system will be surrounded by warm, moist tropical air in its overland
journey. Unlike Charley, which was a small storm coming into a building
ridge, this will be tugging on air well above normal temperature-wise and
dew point-wise Monday and Tuesday with a warm ocean that it can run to.
We have seen cases like this where storms have weakened to nearly
tropical storm status, or below, then come roaring back as they
approached the coast. With 80-degree water temperatures all the way to
Atlantic City, the moral is, the farther east the track, the worse the
storm will be up the coast, though, of course, the less the problem on
the Gulf side of things. In fact, this should score impact points all the
way to New England before it's all said and done. The intensity and track
forecast speak for themselves right now. Interestingly enough, even if the
GFS idea of this staying near or off Florida's east coast was right, it
would still probably wind up near the mid-Atlantic coast as the
parameters that it is in a big argument about have to do with the ridge
over the south and how much it can push it westward. The U.S. models have
been in their own world the entire time on this, be it not seeing the
storm or keeping it farther out. 

ONE IMPORTANT POINT... A TREND FARTHER EAST SOUTH OF 30
NORTH DOES LOOK MORE LIKELY TO ME THAN ONE WEST, and this was the point
yesterday. I will update tracks as need be on this. 

In the wake of this, there is no rest as by late next
week, another threat may be looming. The increase in convection now
evident all the way into the Atlantic to 55 west is a sign this pulse is
getting established, and so the track race talked about may indeed be
underway as discussed. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY 10:30 A.M.: 

Here are my forecast positions and intensities on Katrina.
A major tropical discussion will follow later today. 

12z Thursday August 25: 26.5/78.8, 994 mb, 55 knots. 

12z Friday August 26: 27.0/81.0, 994 mb, 55 knots. 

12z Saturday August 27: 27.0/83.0, 988 mb, 65 knots. 

12z Sunday August 28: 28.0/85.0, 974 mb, 80 knots. 

12z Monday August 29: 30.0/86.8, 965 mb, 95 knots. 

12z Tuesday August 30: 33.0/84.8, 985 mb, 45 knots. 

12z Wednesday August 31: 36.0/81.8, 992 mb, 40 knots. 

12z Thursday September 1: 38.0/73.0, 992 mb, 50 knots. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY MORNING (EARLY) : LET THE GAMES BEGIN. 

 3.) Amplified trofs near 145 west and 165 east imply
southern branch trof split next week near 90 that should pick up what I
think will become a GULF storm, but will make it wind up over the mid-
Atlantic states the middle of next week. Possible track after second landfall
is a cross between Ivan and Jeanne. 

4.) There are many tough forecast issues with the storm,
outlined in previous posts (please refer to them). Track/intensity
guidance for you will be out around noon as the center should be
established. The GFS simply adds to the confusion, as usual, with any
big-ticket developing weather feature. Yesterday it didn't have it on 00z
run, now its way east. Its rack up east of 80 is as likely a path that
takes it west of 90. Right now my gut says category 2 or perhaps 3
hurricane hits in hurricane impact map zone 3 on second landfall. 

5.) Overall pattern says this is not the last one. Ten
days from now, a new storm will be in the same general area, and we may
see as many as two or three threats for the East Coast and Gulf during
the bursting period. NOTICE HOW CONVECTION, JUST LIKE IN THE EARLY
SEASON, INCREASES MARKEDLY WEST OF 60 AS LATEST TROPICAL WAVE IS BLOWING
UP THERE. That is part of the pattern pulse theory. 

6.) The central Atlantic tropical cyclone continues
westward. The theory is that it recurves and the aforementioned threat
comes from the next system. 

Ciao for now. 
 

WEDNESDAY: ENDLESS SUMMER PATTERN ARISES AND TROPICAL
PULSE SPRINGS FORTH. 

The water temperature profile around the continent bears a
striking resemblance to the pattern in late summer 2002. This was a
weakish El Nino that still flabbergasts me that with the most active
naming month on record, and with two category 4 storms in the Gulf within
ten days, was somehow listed as a down year for hurricanes because of the
El Nino. In any case, we are looking similar to that overall. And here's
where people who aren't affected by the Tropics have to understand how
important the Tropics are, for THEY DO AFFECT YOU, that these signals
lead to a very warm September nationwide. And so we are rolling out of
August into September looking much like that. The same kind of pattern
that may lead to five more names by September 20th (we have had two
already since August 20th) may go hand in hand with the same pattern that
is leading to the widespread warmth. It is interesting to note that weak
El Nino seasons such as 2002 and 1969 with higher-than-average hurricane
intensity production in the Gulf had cold winters behind them east of the
Mississippi. Enough said about that. 

For East Coast residents, the tropical outlook this
morning was meant to show the danger of this pattern with that trof near
the West Coast the way it is in the means. The storm shown was Carol in
1954. The current situation is such that the pattern pulse is very
definitely arriving, one only need look at the increase in convective
systems in the Atlantic. 

Katrina: 

The steady improvement of the storm's structure and the
reversal of the pattern aloft means a very dangerous situation for the
southeast Florida coast as jaw-dropping intensification is possible
before landfall, and the hurricane center, aware of this, is letting
people know with the hurricane watch. I am hoping people understand that
from West Palm southward, this is probably worse than any of the
hurricanes last year, and they are not caught off guard. The storm will
slow a bit and turn more to the west tonight, but I do not believe the
U.S. models in the least as I think this will get into the Gulf and far
enough out there, so I am not trending eastward at this time with the
path. The European, Japanese model and even the GFDL are all much farther
west in the Gulf. Modeling is divided into two camps, and right now,
ideas from a few days ago are working just fine. In fact, the position of
the storm is well ahead of just fine. In fact, the position of the storm
is well ahead of model forecasts. The danger is that the storm can have a
20- to 30-mb drop before landfall easily, and can be a category 2 should
landfall be delayed until tomorrow night, and that looks like it will be
between Miami and West Palm. 

The screaming message of the GFDL with its tremendous
deepening on the last two runs is that the overall pattern is ripe for
development. Its mistake is the turn southwestward under Florida. But all
modeling show the storm deepening once over the water west of Florida,
indicating at the very least the pattern is there. 

My track and numbers speak for themselves. The wildest
model is the Canadian with its 28.83 low over Atlantic City next Tuesday
morning, the second run in a row of the monster that deepens northeast.
This is because the system is surrounded by favorable development
parameters, and the European idea is not far behind. I think the
post-landfall path in relation to the East Coast is a cross between Ivan
and Jeanne, though there will be no turnaround of this storm, but the
threat it becomes a hurricane again near the mid-Atlantic coast as it
comes over flat ground, with bay temperatures near 85 and ocean
temperatures near 80. The forecast, though, stands as is. 

Basically I am relying on the amplification I see over the
Pacific, because although transient, the downstream response should be to
hook up with Katrina and bring it to the mid-Atlantic coast as a deep
hybrid with heavy rain, high winds and severe weather. 

Once past this, the overall pattern still has the same
places candidates for development in the longer range. Katrina won't be
our last challenge, though she is posing quite a challenge. 

Note: It is possible that both zones 5 and 3 get their
impact points in one fell swoop as this could be category 2's in both
places. Impact points for the U.S. total are only scored with storms at
their closest approach to a zone from the water, not when inland, so
while a place like the Carolina zone will get points, they won't count to
the seasonal total for the entire U.S. impact, just the zone total. This
is, of course, another attempt to become more definitive in forecasting
and assessing the season. The final point totals will be determined at
the end of the year and will include in TPC ideas on intensity of
systems. The storm will probably score at least 2's all the way to New
England as far as zone effects go. Please read the hurricane forecast for
how this works. 

Ciao for now. 

No changes on Katrina as far as path and intensity go as
models are at war with the path. I feel the end game sticks this over the
mid-Atlantic states the middle of next week with pressures and winds as forecasted
below. The rate of intensification should increase and rapid development
may take place before the first landfall. Additional comments are coming
with the post later. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY 12:30 P.M.: POSITION IDEA BELOW. KATRINA LOOKING
MEANA. 

The track and intensity posts below are similar to TPC in
track, but stronger on the intensity, based on the idea that the storm
will be very close to hurricane strength at landfall tomorrow and its
structure will improve as it continues westward across South Florida. It
is one thing for the storm to hit at its strongest point, have its inner
core destroyed and then have to overcome the outer bands that are not
destroyed competing with it. This is why we hit the intensity forecast so
well with storms that hit land, such as Dennis and Emily, knowing it
would take a while for them to roar back, but that they would. In the
case of Isadore, which we also hit in that we said it was never going to
make it back until the very end, it was a matter of the storm being over
land so long it became like a giant non-tropical system with all the
strong winds so far away, only until the center started moving toward the
wind did it start to come back. As long as Katrina keeps moving over
Florida, it will come out and probably be back to its pre-landfall
intensity, providing that is not anything beyond a category 1 hurricane,
within 24 hours. 

But let's examine this intensity issue before and after
first landfall. There is a chance this could really ramp up fast in the
last 12 hours, and I, for one, am nervous about this. Because it will hit
Florida almost perpendicular from the east, and the farther west it goes,
the warmer the water is, the better this pattern, the greater the pulse
signal part of the pattern, the more risk there is. Again, some
noteworthy storms have blown up in the last 12 hours, and the idea from
the hurricane center that a hurricane warning may be needed is well worth
everyone's while. This is why the 6z GFDL went bonkers on intensity. It
sees the parameters for development improving farther west and north.
While the combination of the storm still organizing and the remnants of
the strong northeast flow aloft can limit development this afternoon, by
tomorrow at this time, that is gone. It is, to be blunt, scary stuff. In
fact, by tomorrow morning, the 200/850 couplet is as perfect as I could
have drawn. 

Essential to the second spurt is the idea the storm gets
more than 100 miles away from the west coast of Florida. The in-close
storm on west of the peninsula rarely will intensify if it had been
strong, or is strong. The fact is the storm pulls dry air in from the
east and causes upwelling. So it has to get out away from the coast. This
is a case where track and intensity in the Gulf go hand in hand in scratching
each other's backs. 

I don't think there is much doubt this will turn northeast
of 90, and right now my landfall point is between 86 and 87 for the
second landfall. If it gets out there like that, while the GFDL may be
overdone, then it can develop to a category 2 or 3. 

The major amplification (though transient and brief, is
definitely there, near 145 west and 165 east) supplies the ammo for the
recurve and us winding up with a formidable storm all the way to the
mid-Atlantic states. A piece of the trof that comes through the Lakes
should tail southward into the Ohio Valley and pick this up Monday or
Tuesday, so it's doubtful the western Gulf has to worry. I feel this
system will be surrounded by warm, moist tropical air in its overland
journey. Unlike Charley, which was a small storm coming into a building
ridge, this will be tugging on air well above normal temperature-wise and
dew point-wise Monday and Tuesday with a warm ocean that it can run to.
We have seen cases like this where storms have weakened to nearly
tropical storm status, or below, then come roaring back as they
approached the coast. With 80-degree water temperatures all the way to
Atlantic City, the moral is, the farther east the track, the worse the
storm will be up the coast, though, of course, the less the problem on
the Gulf side of things. In fact, this should score impact points all the
way to New England before it's all said and done. The intensity and track
forecast speak for themselves right now. Interestingly enough, even if the
GFS idea of this staying near or off Florida's east coast was right, it
would still probably wind up near the mid-Atlantic coast as the
parameters that it is in a big argument about have to do with the ridge
over the south and how much it can push it westward. The U.S. models have
been in their own world the entire time on this, be it not seeing the
storm or keeping it farther out. 

ONE IMPORTANT POINT... A TREND FARTHER EAST SOUTH OF 30
NORTH DOES LOOK MORE LIKELY TO ME THAN ONE WEST, and this was the point
yesterday. I will update tracks as need be on this. 

In the wake of this, there is no rest as by late next
week, another threat may be looming. The increase in convection now
evident all the way into the Atlantic to 55 west is a sign this pulse is
getting established, and so the track race talked about may indeed be
underway as discussed. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY 10:30 A.M.: 

Here are my forecast positions and intensities on Katrina.
A major tropical discussion will follow later today. 

12z Thursday August 25: 26.5/78.8, 994 mb, 55 knots. 

12z Friday August 26: 27.0/81.0, 994 mb, 55 knots. 

12z Saturday August 27: 27.0/83.0, 988 mb, 65 knots. 

12z Sunday August 28: 28.0/85.0, 974 mb, 80 knots. 

12z Monday August 29: 30.0/86.8, 965 mb, 95 knots. 

12z Tuesday August 30: 33.0/84.8, 985 mb, 45 knots. 

12z Wednesday August 31: 36.0/81.8, 992 mb, 40 knots. 

12z Thursday September 1: 38.0/73.0, 992 mb, 50 knots. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY MORNING (EARLY) : LET THE GAMES BEGIN. 

 3.) Amplified trofs near 145 west and 165 east imply
southern branch trof split next week near 90 that should pick up what I
think will become a GULF storm, but will make it wind up over the mid-
Atlantic states the middle of next week. Possible track after second landfall
is a cross between Ivan and Jeanne. 

4.) There are many tough forecast issues with the storm,
outlined in previous posts (please refer to them). Track/intensity
guidance for you will be out around noon as the center should be
established. The GFS simply adds to the confusion, as usual, with any
big-ticket developing weather feature. Yesterday it didn't have it on 00z
run, now its way east. Its rack up east of 80 is as likely a path that
takes it west of 90. Right now my gut says category 2 or perhaps 3
hurricane hits in hurricane impact map zone 3 on second landfall. 

5.) Overall pattern says this is not the last one. Ten
days from now, a new storm will be in the same general area, and we may
see as many as two or three threats for the East Coast and Gulf during
the bursting period. NOTICE HOW CONVECTION, JUST LIKE IN THE EARLY
SEASON, INCREASES MARKEDLY WEST OF 60 AS LATEST TROPICAL WAVE IS BLOWING
UP THERE. That is part of the pattern pulse theory. 

6.) The central Atlantic tropical cyclone continues
westward. The theory is that it recurves and the aforementioned threat
comes from the next system. 

Ciao for now. 
 

Sunday 5pm tropical ideas. 

GREAT WAILING AND GNASHING OF TEETH DEVELOPS THIS WEEK IN
THE TROPICS. 

SUNDAY 5:00 P.M.: GREAT WAILING AND GNASHING OF TEETH
DEVELOPS THIS WEEK IN THE TROPICS. 

That will verify, for either this week will go by with no
development, which would put me ten days through a burst period that ends
September 20th, where the following forecasts have been made, at least
seven named storms and at least three landfalls, or every other forecaster
in Florida and the Southeast will be wailing and gnashing, and then perhaps
the Gulf, and lastly the East Coast for what they see coming the following
week. In what is as exciting in pattern potential as I can remember seeing,
we have a European now developing a hurricane out of the wave with its
center north of Hispaniola and bringing it across Florida into the Gulf,
and the GFS with yet another run trying to bring a Labor Day hurricane up
the East Coast. That is sure to disappear on subsequent runs, but one thing
I will say for the model, it sometimes will catch ideas a long way off,
lose them, and then come back to them. 

But let's take things as they come. First of all, the
structure of the wave over the Yucatan has improved this afternoon, and in
the spirit of Bret and Gert, this may develop quickly late and hit Mexico
south of 22.5 north later Tuesday. The trof split has not been nearly as
pronounced as I thought, and in fact, all I see is small upper max tailing
southeastward toward the ridge and hence the front for a change will not do
as good in Texas. Interesting to note in that in preparation for a pattern
that I think will look a lot like mid-June to mid-July, late-summer style,
using the warm water source as the main feedback, fronts had a hard time getting
to Texas through June. The 30-day SOI at -7 now should be back to neutral
in about two weeks given the look of things, and that rapid rise period of
that indice last time correlates nicely to what may happen now.
Interestingly enough, the fall that would follow later in September, if
that is the case, would mean an active end game in the Gulf would be more
likely. But that is putting the cart before the horse. I don't want to
start switching to my to my upcoming analog for fall and winter of 2002/2003
(oops, now I've gone and done it). 

But the main source of wailing and gnashing of teeth is the
shadow of TC 10, the "Jess eye for the storm guy" system. For
those of you wonder what that is, my wife is often called upon, as a
bystander who really is objective about the weather since she really
doesn't care if something develops or not, to make sure I am not
"seeing" things in pictures. Well, I have been getting her and my
9-year old to look at cloud shots and tell me what they see. When they see
a spin that I see (I don't tell them where it is or what I am looking for),
then I know I am not just trying to rev things up. Now Jess and the kids
are swimming, and I am at work, but look, we can all see what is going on.
And in this case, the shadow knows that in the end, it was the system that
would have the chance to develop after all. This afternoon finds banded
thunderstorms spreading into the Bahamas and the center of the midlevel
spin very plainly evident near 20.5 north and 69.5 west. 

Before discussing this further, it is interesting to note
this too has a wave that is following it, but it has never been a part of
it. It's near 60 west and closing fast. If we see a lot of thunderstorms
develop with this and it stops the increasing organization in front of it,
well, then that is a problem. If it happens for a day, then it piles in,
well, then, that just helps it. The best scenario for development of the
shadow of 10 is if it simply piles in. 

But look, this is an awfully impressive setup that can be in
front of us. How so? Well, the ensembles a couple of weeks ago said this
was the week of building pressures in the means over the Northeast and into
the Atlantic, and they sure do that. This means pressure falls in the means
over the Southeast. The look that set off the hurricane burst early is
there, lower-than-average heights all over the place in the Tropics close
to the U.S. mean lower-than-normal pressures in the Tropics. Since the
water is so warm, it means greater-than-normal upward motion. Since building
pressures over the north Atlantic mean falling in the Tropics, I still
think this is one heck of a setup on the way. 

But back to this. The Euro went wild this afternoon as it
brought a slowly-developing system northward to near 28 and 79 by Friday, then
turned the more rapidly-intensifying system west-southwestward through
Florida and into the Gulf. Now there is a chance this could get caught and
escape east, or, as the Canadian model said last night, and its ensembles
said a few days ago, it could come up the East Coast. But I don't think
this pattern is ready for that. I do think it will be as we head toward
Labor Day and September, but not now. But that being said, it does look
like something that could lead to development in Florida's back yard this
week, and then the move into the Gulf is possible. In 1995, we had Erin
come from the southeast into the East Coast and then wind up in the Gulf,
and the lack of the true trof split has made me wonder if we are seeing the
ridge getting ready to crank, first east-west with a strong piece aimed
northeast first and then, like what we are seeing near Japan later this
week, west-southwest, east-northeast for next week. 

But back to the Tropics. The implication is, of course, that
forecasters in the Southeast have their work cut out for them, and in the
end, TC 10 may have not survived because what was behind it was the main
system after all. 

Of course, we have to see this convection and banding hold
its own during the downtick, then come back and increase. The system does
look better organized than 24 hours ago. 

The monster that came off Africa is by far the biggest of
the season. Like many of the storms we have seen this year that wound up
making it to 70 west, this is forecast to curve east of 60. I will reserve
judgment on that for now and stick with the idea it's near 60 west and 20
north next weekend. But there will be something coming from behind it soon
enough, and the screaming message of the GFS and its ensembles and indeed
really most of the modeling, for they all have the pressures low around
Florida later this week, is that we are building it, and they are bound to
come. 

Ciao for now. 

SUNDAY 1:30 PM. 

Been a bit under the weather this morning, sorry for
lateness here. 

REPETITION OF MID JUNE-MID JULY PATTERN, LATE SUMMER
FEEDBACK STYLE IN STORE. 

5) Very difficult tropical pattern discussed in depth later
today. 

Tropics: Yucatan system staying south (no surprise) In the
end it was what was behind TC10 that would be the development if at all.
Ugly mid and late week for Fla. Major system in Cape Verdes right on
schedule, but models pulling usual mid ocean recurve. Parade forecasted now
on most models to start with that. Day 10 on ensembles very interesting
looking in this regard. 

Ciao for now *** 

8:30 pm. 

I will be issuing position forecasts tomorrow when I know
where the center finally shakes out. The call for now is for the storm to
be near hurricane force and cross the Florida peninsula south of 27th north
Thursday night and be in the gulf by noon Friday. Projected second
landfall, of possible major hurricane Monday or Tuesday in... where else,
zone 3 of the hurricane landfall impact chart. I do think this winds up
after landfall heading northeast next week and be near the mid-Atlantic
coast mid and late week. However the official lets grade em numbers will be
out tomorrow. 

I think the system in the Atlantic is a tropical cyclone.
While models are trying to recurve this, they are not shy about what comes
after it, and after that as the GFS and ensembles direct a couple of
tropical cyclones into the southwest Atlantic But enough for now. 

ciao for now **** 

3:30 PM TUESDAY: TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMENT. 

The posts today have been meant to set the stage for what I
think is a slow moving and potentially powerful tropical event. While
increasing the worry about the mid and north Atlantic coast in the end
game, and also raising the specter of the idea it may try to stay up east
of the Peninsula as the GFS is trying to pull, it is not meant to take the
original idea off the table or even relegate to an afterthought… that this
could be a nasty set up as far west as the oil areas of the Gulf. Again,
the 1947 New Orleans storm is in the host of analogs here, but look I am
someone who will level with you. This for me is a hard situation. I have
had an idea about the wave this would behave through Friday into
Saturday... getting into the southeast gulf, but after that I am not at all
confident. I hope to become more confident soon, but until I see that, I am
trying to re-enforce the ideas that have been here for several days, but
open up the other ideas so you know what is going through my head. 

Once the circulation center is christened with a data point
by TPC, then my ideas on movement and intensity will follow. But right now
suffice it say, the idea that this would not go quietly and would be a
player (see posts from late last week in overview and others) are just
steps on the path. One that has its share of twists and turns. 

Ciao for now **** 

MIDDAY TUESDAY: 

SOME COMMENTS ON INCREASING SOUTHEAST THREAT. 

First of all, though I would like it to be, because it would
be a great lesson in persistence, I don’t believe the developing tropical
cyclone in the southeast Bahamas is TC10, but the piece that has been
following it. I guess one could argue that since the piece was hooked with
it much of its life and would flare and compete with the circulation of 10
that was well organized, it is it. However if one looks closely and follows
continuity, and also tropical prediction center analysis, the actual center
of TC10 got way out in front. In fact, that system is forecast by the eta
west through the gulf to near the lower Texas gulf coast by Friday. And
that might be a problem in itself if true, since it comes right under the
200 mb ridge over the western gulf. It’s not like systems in the western
gulf have not intensified. In fact, a look at the eta 60 hour moisture
increments actually shows that moving away. I will be watching this
carefully, not it’s not yet time for Houston, we have a problem. Further
east though, from the eastern perhaps central gulf, and all the way up the
east coast perhaps to New England next week, we probably do. 

I dont know how other forecasters are looking at this, but
this to me is one of the more challenging weather situations I have ever
faced. I will list reasons here 1) Intensity forecast. The fact is that
this system has had something fighting it for a long time, but it is now
getting into an area that traditionally has produced some fast deepening
storms. Cleo in 1964 shocked forecasters with the strength she regained
coming off Cuba for Miami. The Labor day hurricane in the 30s was no big
deal in the Bahamas, but was the strongest ever to hit the US when it went
through the Keys. So simply based on the area, one has to worry. But there
is more. The slow movement over water that is abnormally warm is a problem.
Should the system hook up the feedback, and that is why Jose may have been
a great warning shot as to what can happen, this can deepen with jaw
dropping quickness. But can it. I am worried, that while a day or two away
from such a thing, Such a thing is likely. Consider: This has fought dry
air, shear, competing centers, land masses and here we find it looking
better than ever, with a complete reversal of the upper pattern it has been
fighting occurring. In addition, pressures are low all around it and behind
it, indicating the air overall is growing more unstable and waves are
feeding in. The movement northwest toward the northern and central Bahamas
or waters off the Florida southeast or east coast bring it closer into the
large high building down from the north, enhancing in a couple of days
inflow into the system. In fact about the only negative I see here over the
next 72 hours should it rid itself of what’s left of the dry air, is
Florida itself. By the time it could get onshore, it may have really ramped
up. IT IS IN AN AREA WHERE IF IT STARTED TO ROLL, IT WOULD BE UNUSUAL FOR
IT NOT TO DEVELOP STRONGLY. 

I think the message of the large scale modelling, sans GFS
through this morning and in fact all US modelling is you dont want this to
stay out over the water. In fact the European is deeper on day 8 after
landfall when it’s over the mid-Atlantic states, probably because it
understands the air mass in the way and also can "feel" the pulse
coming from the west. If we look at the westward models, the Canadian and
UKMET which all keep the gulf threat all the way back into Energy land, we
see that this really cranks the further west it gets. But that pulse with
its slow migration east could catch a storm that was near 80 west and 33
north, but had stayed over the water the whole time. And here is problem 2,
the track. 

I am in a quandary here, but I am leaning more to the track
up the east coast. The deepening trof near 140 west, though transient and
replaced quickly by the ridge (which trof that can hook with this would
be... replaced quickly by the rebuilding ridge once it’s by) does argue for
a 2-3 day window for this to be picked up. But it would not be the classic
pick up and get whisked out, but instead crawl up the coast, once again the
idea is the big reversal of the weather pattern from where it was when
Irene turned out. There was no high pressure in the north, this time the
north Atlantic will be covered with it. With water temps to 80 all the way
to Atlantic City, we are setting up for the chance for a very tough set of
circumstances all the way, perhaps to New England. 

While unusual, the track into the eastern Gulf, where it
would be a fight between upwelling and the warm water for the intensity
situation, then up the east coast to the VA Capes is there for the taking.
Interestingly enough, the further east the track is near Florida, the more
westward the component may be further north, but that I mean a storm
hitting near Pensacola or Apalachicola may just as easily wind up over the
Delmarva as one missing Florida to the east, because if one looks, the big
pressure and height anomalies provide for more blocking further north. 

But of course it’s one step at a time here. South Florida,
the northern and central Bahamas and yes the east coast of Florida are the
first to have to consider the chance of a slow moving, and quickly
intensifying storm marring their weather picture. Whether one wants to call
if TC10 or not, it looks like it may justify some of the hype about the pattern
we are entering. At the very least, it looks like if not a weather problem,
it is a weather forecast problem 

More later 

ciao for now 

**** 

AS DIFFICULT A SUMMER SEASON PATTERN AS I HAVE EVER SEEN
FROM CENTRAL GULF TO NEW ENGLAND NEXT 7-10 DAYS MAY SIMPLY BE ONE OF
SEVERAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. 

A complete tropical post will come up later today, but as is
my habit when posting more tropics one day I like to talk about the other
areas of the nation and the overall pattern the next. 

But the real headaches are further southeast, Florida where
anywhere from a weak tropical storm to a full blown hurricane ( it really
looks like this will kick off the shear now) can cause copious rains, and
then either west into the gulf or up the east coast. I will be posting
later today on this. 

The worst case for the east coast...it never hits Florida,
stays just offshore then comes up into the Carolinas and beyond. For the
gulf, the UKMET says it all. For all of us, the interaction between all
these things reminds me of something Thoreau said. The sum of all our
fictions add up to a joint reality... Well this pattern is a sum all the
parts we have been talking about and the interaction of the tropics and the
westerlies is such that one compliments the other. The sum of all the
pattern parts is adding up to a joint reality, one that is cloaked in
attempts at discerning facts, from fiction. 

Ciao for now. 

***** 

TUESDAY AM: GFS ON POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST STORM QUOTES SARGENT
SHULTZ FROM HOGANS HEROES: I SEE NOTHING, NOTHING DOES SEE HEAT FROM TEXAS
TO ONTARIO THOUGH. 

1) Either the greatest, or worst GFS tropical wise for the
southeast ever as it defies all other guidance and has nothing out
developing tropical cyclone over Bahamas. UKMET has major central gulf
hurricane hit early next week. Euro goes up the southeast coast, Canadian
in between. 

2) Jose has formed and hit, Major mid-Atlantic wave still
coming west 

3) Tropics will be late morning post. I like ideas from
yesterday I had. Florida gets soaked, southeast coast gets plenty of rough
surf but call next week tough as it may deepen northeast up along coast.
New tropical cyclone now christened by me in the Atlantic at 16 north and
35 west. Vigorous large circulation with convection starting to develop.
Models recurve. I have no changes on it from earlier ideas into the
upcoming weekend. Note: "Sudden" development seen on global
models of as many as 3 storms (Canadian) next 5-7 days indicative of large
scale development pulse working east. Jose's rapid ramp up should have
forecasters wary of the system in the Bahamas now as this pulse spreads
east, though land interaction can hinder 

4) No denying summers not dying with arc of heat Texas to
plains to Ontario. Mid Atlantic and northeast heat dependent on tropics
next week. 5) Trof wants to continue to dump into Pac northwest. Sudden
shortening of wavelengths to be big problem 

Note: Mini post frontal Nor’easter develops for VA capes and
NC coast north of Hatteras tonight and heads out. 3-5 inches of rain and
gales possible by morning. System does not hang around though 

ciao for now ****

WEDNESDAY: ENDLESS SUMMER PATTERN ARISES AND TROPICAL
PULSE SPRINGS FORTH. 

The water temperature profile around the continent bears a
striking resemblance to the pattern in late summer 2002. This was a
weakish El Nino that still flabbergasts me that with the most active
naming month on record, and with two category 4 storms in the Gulf within
ten days, was somehow listed as a down year for hurricanes because of the
El Nino. In any case, we are looking similar to that overall. And here's
where people who aren't affected by the Tropics have to understand how
important the Tropics are, for THEY DO AFFECT YOU, that these signals
lead to a very warm September nationwide. And so we are rolling out of
August into September looking much like that. The same kind of pattern
that may lead to five more names by September 20th (we have had two
already since August 20th) may go hand in hand with the same pattern that
is leading to the widespread warmth. It is interesting to note that weak
El Nino seasons such as 2002 and 1969 with higher-than-average hurricane
intensity production in the Gulf had cold winters behind them east of the
Mississippi. Enough said about that. 

For East Coast residents, the tropical outlook this
morning was meant to show the danger of this pattern with that trof near
the West Coast the way it is in the means. The storm shown was Carol in
1954. The current situation is such that the pattern pulse is very
definitely arriving, one only need look at the increase in convective
systems in the Atlantic. 

Katrina: 

The steady improvement of the storm's structure and the
reversal of the pattern aloft means a very dangerous situation for the
southeast Florida coast as jaw-dropping intensification is possible
before landfall, and the hurricane center, aware of this, is letting
people know with the hurricane watch. I am hoping people understand that
from West Palm southward, this is probably worse than any of the
hurricanes last year, and they are not caught off guard. The storm will
slow a bit and turn more to the west tonight, but I do not believe the
U.S. models in the least as I think this will get into the Gulf and far
enough out there, so I am not trending eastward at this time with the
path. The European, Japanese model and even the GFDL are all much farther
west in the Gulf. Modeling is divided into two camps, and right now,
ideas from a few days ago are working just fine. In fact, the position of
the storm is well ahead of just fine. In fact, the position of the storm
is well ahead of model forecasts. The danger is that the storm can have a
20- to 30-mb drop before landfall easily, and can be a category 2 should
landfall be delayed until tomorrow night, and that looks like it will be
between Miami and West Palm. 

The screaming message of the GFDL with its tremendous
deepening on the last two runs is that the overall pattern is ripe for
development. Its mistake is the turn southwestward under Florida. But all
modeling show the storm deepening once over the water west of Florida,
indicating at the very least the pattern is there. 

My track and numbers speak for themselves. The wildest
model is the Canadian with its 28.83 low over Atlantic City next Tuesday
morning, the second run in a row of the monster that deepens northeast.
This is because the system is surrounded by favorable development
parameters, and the European idea is not far behind. I think the
post-landfall path in relation to the East Coast is a cross between Ivan
and Jeanne, though there will be no turnaround of this storm, but the
threat it becomes a hurricane again near the mid-Atlantic coast as it
comes over flat ground, with bay temperatures near 85 and ocean
temperatures near 80. The forecast, though, stands as is. 

Basically I am relying on the amplification I see over the
Pacific, because although transient, the downstream response should be to
hook up with Katrina and bring it to the mid-Atlantic coast as a deep
hybrid with heavy rain, high winds and severe weather. 

Once past this, the overall pattern still has the same
places candidates for development in the longer range. Katrina won't be
our last challenge, though she is posing quite a challenge. 

Note: It is possible that both zones 5 and 3 get their
impact points in one fell swoop as this could be category 2's in both
places. Impact points for the U.S. total are only scored with storms at
their closest approach to a zone from the water, not when inland, so
while a place like the Carolina zone will get points, they won't count to
the seasonal total for the entire U.S. impact, just the zone total. This
is, of course, another attempt to become more definitive in forecasting
and assessing the season. The final point totals will be determined at
the end of the year and will include in TPC ideas on intensity of
systems. The storm will probably score at least 2's all the way to New
England as far as zone effects go. Please read the hurricane forecast for
how this works. 

Ciao for now. 

No changes on Katrina as far as path and intensity go as
models are at war with the path. I feel the end game sticks this over the
mid-Atlantic states the middle of next week with pressures and winds as forecasted
below. The rate of intensification should increase and rapid development
may take place before the first landfall. Additional comments are coming
with the post later. 

 
 ********** 

WEDNESDAY 12:30 P.M.: POSITION IDEA BELOW. KATRINA LOOKING
MEANA. 

The track and intensity posts below are similar to TPC in
track, but stronger on the intensity, based on the idea that the storm
will be very close to hurricane strength at landfall tomorrow and its
structure will improve as it continues westward across South Florida. It
is one thing for the storm to hit at its strongest point, have its inner
core destroyed and then have to overcome the outer bands that are not
destroyed competing with it. This is why we hit the intensity forecast so
well with storms that hit land, such as Dennis and Emily, knowing it
would take a while for them to roar back, but that they would. In the
case of Isadore, which we also hit in that we said it was never going to
make it back until the very end, it was a matter of the storm being over
land so long it became like a giant non-tropical system with all the
strong winds so far away, only until the center started moving toward the
wind did it start to come back. As long as Katrina keeps moving over
Florida, it will come out and probably be back to its pre-landfall
intensity, providing that is not anything beyond a category 1 hurricane,
within 24 hours. 

But let's examine this intensity issue before and after
first landfall. There is a chance this could really ramp up fast in the
last 12 hours, and I, for one, am nervous about this. Because it will hit
Florida almost perpendicular from the east, and the farther west it goes,
the warmer the water is, the better this pattern, the greater the pulse
signal part of the pattern, the more risk there is. Again, some
noteworthy storms have blown up in the last 12 hours, and the idea from
the hurricane center that a hurricane warning may be needed is well worth
everyone's while. This is why the 6z GFDL went bonkers on intensity. It
sees the parameters for development improving farther west and north.
While the combination of the storm still organizing and the remnants of
the strong northeast flow aloft can limit development this afternoon, by
tomorrow at this time, that is gone. It is, to be blunt, scary stuff. In
fact, by tomorrow morning, the 200/850 couplet is as perfect as I could
have drawn. 

Essential to the second spurt is the idea the storm gets
more than 100 miles away from the west coast of Florida. The in-close
storm on west of the peninsula rarely will intensify if it had been
strong, or is strong. The fact is the storm pulls dry air in from the
east and causes upwelling. So it has to get out away from the coast. This
is a case where track and intensity in the Gulf go hand in hand in scratching
each other's backs. 

I don't think there is much doubt this will turn northeast
of 90, and right now my landfall point is between 86 and 87 for the
second landfall. If it gets out there like that, while the GFDL may be
overdone, then it can develop to a category 2 or 3. 

The major amplification (though transient and brief, is
definitely there, near 145 west and 165 east) supplies the ammo for the
recurve and us winding up with a formidable storm all the way to the
mid-Atlantic states. A piece of the trof that comes through the Lakes
should tail southward into the Ohio Valley and pick this up Monday or
Tuesday, so it's doubtful the western Gulf has to worry. I feel this
system will be surrounded by warm, moist tropical air in its overland
journey. Unlike Charley, which was a small storm coming into a building
ridge, this will be tugging on air well above normal temperature-wise and
dew point-wise Monday and Tuesday with a warm ocean that it can run to.
We have seen cases like this where storms have weakened to nearly
tropical storm status, or below, then come roaring back as they
approached the coast. With 80-degree water temperatures all the way to
Atlantic City, the moral is, the farther east the track, the worse the
storm will be up the coast, though, of course, the less the problem on
the Gulf side of things. In fact, this should score impact points all the
way to New England before it's all said and done. The intensity and track
forecast speak for themselves right now. Interestingly enough, even if the
GFS idea of this staying near or off Florida's east coast was right, it
would still probably wind up near the mid-Atlantic coast as the
parameters that it is in a big argument about have to do with the ridge
over the south and how much it can push it westward. The U.S. models have
been in their own world the entire time on this, be it not seeing the
storm or keeping it farther out. 

ONE IMPORTANT POINT... A TREND FARTHER EAST SOUTH OF 30
NORTH DOES LOOK MORE LIKELY TO ME THAN ONE WEST, and this was the point
yesterday. I will update tracks as need be on this. 

In the wake of this, there is no rest as by late next
week, another threat may be looming. The increase in convection now
evident all the way into the Atlantic to 55 west is a sign this pulse is
getting established, and so the track race talked about may indeed be
underway as discussed. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY 10:30 A.M.: 

Here are my forecast positions and intensities on Katrina.
A major tropical discussion will follow later today. 

12z Thursday August 25: 26.5/78.8, 994 mb, 55 knots. 

12z Friday August 26: 27.0/81.0, 994 mb, 55 knots. 

12z Saturday August 27: 27.0/83.0, 988 mb, 65 knots. 

12z Sunday August 28: 28.0/85.0, 974 mb, 80 knots. 

12z Monday August 29: 30.0/86.8, 965 mb, 95 knots. 

12z Tuesday August 30: 33.0/84.8, 985 mb, 45 knots. 

12z Wednesday August 31: 36.0/81.8, 992 mb, 40 knots. 

12z Thursday September 1: 38.0/73.0, 992 mb, 50 knots. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY MORNING (EARLY) : LET THE GAMES BEGIN. 

 3.) Amplified trofs near 145 west and 165 east imply
southern branch trof split next week near 90 that should pick up what I
think will become a GULF storm, but will make it wind up over the mid-
Atlantic states the middle of next week. Possible track after second landfall
is a cross between Ivan and Jeanne. 

4.) There are many tough forecast issues with the storm,
outlined in previous posts (please refer to them). Track/intensity
guidance for you will be out around noon as the center should be
established. The GFS simply adds to the confusion, as usual, with any
big-ticket developing weather feature. Yesterday it didn't have it on 00z
run, now its way east. Its rack up east of 80 is as likely a path that
takes it west of 90. Right now my gut says category 2 or perhaps 3
hurricane hits in hurricane impact map zone 3 on second landfall. 

5.) Overall pattern says this is not the last one. Ten
days from now, a new storm will be in the same general area, and we may
see as many as two or three threats for the East Coast and Gulf during
the bursting period. NOTICE HOW CONVECTION, JUST LIKE IN THE EARLY
SEASON, INCREASES MARKEDLY WEST OF 60 AS LATEST TROPICAL WAVE IS BLOWING
UP THERE. That is part of the pattern pulse theory. 

6.) The central Atlantic tropical cyclone continues
westward. The theory is that it recurves and the aforementioned threat
comes from the next system. 

Ciao for now. 

WEDNESDAY: ENDLESS SUMMER PATTERN ARISES AND TROPICAL
PULSE SPRINGS FORTH. 

The water temperature profile around the continent bears a
striking resemblance to the pattern in late summer 2002. This was a
weakish El Nino that still flabbergasts me that with the most active
naming month on record, and with two category 4 storms in the Gulf within
ten days, was somehow listed as a down year for hurricanes because of the
El Nino. In any case, we are looking similar to that overall. And here's
where people who aren't affected by the Tropics have to understand how
important the Tropics are, for THEY DO AFFECT YOU, that these signals
lead to a very warm September nationwide. And so we are rolling out of
August into September looking much like that. The same kind of pattern
that may lead to five more names by September 20th (we have had two
already since August 20th) may go hand in hand with the same pattern that
is leading to the widespread warmth. It is interesting to note that weak
El Nino seasons such as 2002 and 1969 with higher-than-average hurricane
intensity production in the Gulf had cold winters behind them east of the
Mississippi. Enough said about that. 

For East Coast residents, the tropical outlook this
morning was meant to show the danger of this pattern with that trof near
the West Coast the way it is in the means. The storm shown was Carol in
1954. The current situation is such that the pattern pulse is very
definitely arriving, one only need look at the increase in convective
systems in the Atlantic. 

Katrina: 

The steady improvement of the storm's structure and the
reversal of the pattern aloft means a very dangerous situation for the
southeast Florida coast as jaw-dropping intensification is possible
before landfall, and the hurricane center, aware of this, is letting
people know with the hurricane watch. I am hoping people understand that
from West Palm southward, this is probably worse than any of the
hurricanes last year, and they are not caught off guard. The storm will
slow a bit and turn more to the west tonight, but I do not believe the
U.S. models in the least as I think this will get into the Gulf and far
enough out there, so I am not trending eastward at this time with the
path. The European, Japanese model and even the GFDL are all much farther
west in the Gulf. Modeling is divided into two camps, and right now,
ideas from a few days ago are working just fine. In fact, the position of
the storm is well ahead of just fine. In fact, the position of the storm
is well ahead of model forecasts. The danger is that the storm can have a
20- to 30-mb drop before landfall easily, and can be a category 2 should
landfall be delayed until tomorrow night, and that looks like it will be
between Miami and West Palm. 

The screaming message of the GFDL with its tremendous
deepening on the last two runs is that the overall pattern is ripe for
development. Its mistake is the turn southwestward under Florida. But all
modeling show the storm deepening once over the water west of Florida,
indicating at the very least the pattern is there. 

My track and numbers speak for themselves. The wildest
model is the Canadian with its 28.83 low over Atlantic City next Tuesday
morning, the second run in a row of the monster that deepens northeast.
This is because the system is surrounded by favorable development
parameters, and the European idea is not far behind. I think the
post-landfall path in relation to the East Coast is a cross between Ivan
and Jeanne, though there will be no turnaround of this storm, but the
threat it becomes a hurricane again near the mid-Atlantic coast as it
comes over flat ground, with bay temperatures near 85 and ocean
temperatures near 80. The forecast, though, stands as is. 

Basically I am relying on the amplification I see over the
Pacific, because although transient, the downstream response should be to
hook up with Katrina and bring it to the mid-Atlantic coast as a deep
hybrid with heavy rain, high winds and severe weather. 

Once past this, the overall pattern still has the same
places candidates for development in the longer range. Katrina won't be
our last challenge, though she is posing quite a challenge. 

Note: It is possible that both zones 5 and 3 get their
impact points in one fell swoop as this could be category 2's in both
places. Impact points for the U.S. total are only scored with storms at
their closest approach to a zone from the water, not when inland, so
while a place like the Carolina zone will get points, they won't count to
the seasonal total for the entire U.S. impact, just the zone total. This
is, of course, another attempt to become more definitive in forecasting
and assessing the season. The final point totals will be determined at
the end of the year and will include in TPC ideas on intensity of
systems. The storm will probably score at least 2's all the way to New
England as far as zone effects go. Please read the hurricane forecast for
how this works. 

Ciao for now. 

No changes on Katrina as far as path and intensity go as
models are at war with the path. I feel the end game sticks this over the
mid-Atlantic states the middle of next week with pressures and winds as forecasted
below. The rate of intensification should increase and rapid development
may take place before the first landfall. Additional comments are coming
with the post later. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY 12:30 P.M.: POSITION IDEA BELOW. KATRINA LOOKING
MEANA. 

The track and intensity posts below are similar to TPC in
track, but stronger on the intensity, based on the idea that the storm
will be very close to hurricane strength at landfall tomorrow and its
structure will improve as it continues westward across South Florida. It
is one thing for the storm to hit at its strongest point, have its inner
core destroyed and then have to overcome the outer bands that are not
destroyed competing with it. This is why we hit the intensity forecast so
well with storms that hit land, such as Dennis and Emily, knowing it
would take a while for them to roar back, but that they would. In the
case of Isadore, which we also hit in that we said it was never going to
make it back until the very end, it was a matter of the storm being over
land so long it became like a giant non-tropical system with all the
strong winds so far away, only until the center started moving toward the
wind did it start to come back. As long as Katrina keeps moving over
Florida, it will come out and probably be back to its pre-landfall
intensity, providing that is not anything beyond a category 1 hurricane,
within 24 hours. 

But let's examine this intensity issue before and after
first landfall. There is a chance this could really ramp up fast in the
last 12 hours, and I, for one, am nervous about this. Because it will hit
Florida almost perpendicular from the east, and the farther west it goes,
the warmer the water is, the better this pattern, the greater the pulse
signal part of the pattern, the more risk there is. Again, some
noteworthy storms have blown up in the last 12 hours, and the idea from
the hurricane center that a hurricane warning may be needed is well worth
everyone's while. This is why the 6z GFDL went bonkers on intensity. It
sees the parameters for development improving farther west and north.
While the combination of the storm still organizing and the remnants of
the strong northeast flow aloft can limit development this afternoon, by
tomorrow at this time, that is gone. It is, to be blunt, scary stuff. In
fact, by tomorrow morning, the 200/850 couplet is as perfect as I could
have drawn. 

Essential to the second spurt is the idea the storm gets
more than 100 miles away from the west coast of Florida. The in-close
storm on west of the peninsula rarely will intensify if it had been
strong, or is strong. The fact is the storm pulls dry air in from the
east and causes upwelling. So it has to get out away from the coast. This
is a case where track and intensity in the Gulf go hand in hand in scratching
each other's backs. 

I don't think there is much doubt this will turn northeast
of 90, and right now my landfall point is between 86 and 87 for the
second landfall. If it gets out there like that, while the GFDL may be
overdone, then it can develop to a category 2 or 3. 

The major amplification (though transient and brief, is
definitely there, near 145 west and 165 east) supplies the ammo for the
recurve and us winding up with a formidable storm all the way to the
mid-Atlantic states. A piece of the trof that comes through the Lakes
should tail southward into the Ohio Valley and pick this up Monday or
Tuesday, so it's doubtful the western Gulf has to worry. I feel this
system will be surrounded by warm, moist tropical air in its overland
journey. Unlike Charley, which was a small storm coming into a building
ridge, this will be tugging on air well above normal temperature-wise and
dew point-wise Monday and Tuesday with a warm ocean that it can run to.
We have seen cases like this where storms have weakened to nearly
tropical storm status, or below, then come roaring back as they
approached the coast. With 80-degree water temperatures all the way to
Atlantic City, the moral is, the farther east the track, the worse the
storm will be up the coast, though, of course, the less the problem on
the Gulf side of things. In fact, this should score impact points all the
way to New England before it's all said and done. The intensity and track
forecast speak for themselves right now. Interestingly enough, even if the
GFS idea of this staying near or off Florida's east coast was right, it
would still probably wind up near the mid-Atlantic coast as the
parameters that it is in a big argument about have to do with the ridge
over the south and how much it can push it westward. The U.S. models have
been in their own world the entire time on this, be it not seeing the
storm or keeping it farther out. 

ONE IMPORTANT POINT... A TREND FARTHER EAST SOUTH OF 30
NORTH DOES LOOK MORE LIKELY TO ME THAN ONE WEST, and this was the point
yesterday. I will update tracks as need be on this. 

In the wake of this, there is no rest as by late next
week, another threat may be looming. The increase in convection now
evident all the way into the Atlantic to 55 west is a sign this pulse is
getting established, and so the track race talked about may indeed be
underway as discussed. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY 10:30 A.M.: 

Here are my forecast positions and intensities on Katrina.
A major tropical discussion will follow later today. 

12z Thursday August 25: 26.5/78.8, 994 mb, 55 knots. 

12z Friday August 26: 27.0/81.0, 994 mb, 55 knots. 

12z Saturday August 27: 27.0/83.0, 988 mb, 65 knots. 

12z Sunday August 28: 28.0/85.0, 974 mb, 80 knots. 

12z Monday August 29: 30.0/86.8, 965 mb, 95 knots. 

12z Tuesday August 30: 33.0/84.8, 985 mb, 45 knots. 

12z Wednesday August 31: 36.0/81.8, 992 mb, 40 knots. 

12z Thursday September 1: 38.0/73.0, 992 mb, 50 knots. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY MORNING (EARLY) : LET THE GAMES BEGIN. 

 3.) Amplified trofs near 145 west and 165 east imply
southern branch trof split next week near 90 that should pick up what I
think will become a GULF storm, but will make it wind up over the mid-
Atlantic states the middle of next week. Possible track after second landfall
is a cross between Ivan and Jeanne. 

4.) There are many tough forecast issues with the storm,
outlined in previous posts (please refer to them). Track/intensity
guidance for you will be out around noon as the center should be
established. The GFS simply adds to the confusion, as usual, with any
big-ticket developing weather feature. Yesterday it didn't have it on 00z
run, now its way east. Its rack up east of 80 is as likely a path that
takes it west of 90. Right now my gut says category 2 or perhaps 3
hurricane hits in hurricane impact map zone 3 on second landfall. 

5.) Overall pattern says this is not the last one. Ten
days from now, a new storm will be in the same general area, and we may
see as many as two or three threats for the East Coast and Gulf during
the bursting period. NOTICE HOW CONVECTION, JUST LIKE IN THE EARLY
SEASON, INCREASES MARKEDLY WEST OF 60 AS LATEST TROPICAL WAVE IS BLOWING
UP THERE. That is part of the pattern pulse theory. 

6.) The central Atlantic tropical cyclone continues
westward. The theory is that it recurves and the aforementioned threat
comes from the next system. 

Ciao for now. 

WEDNESDAY: ENDLESS SUMMER PATTERN ARISES AND TROPICAL
PULSE SPRINGS FORTH. 

The water temperature profile around the continent bears a
striking resemblance to the pattern in late summer 2002. This was a
weakish El Nino that still flabbergasts me that with the most active
naming month on record, and with two category 4 storms in the Gulf within
ten days, was somehow listed as a down year for hurricanes because of the
El Nino. In any case, we are looking similar to that overall. And here's
where people who aren't affected by the Tropics have to understand how
important the Tropics are, for THEY DO AFFECT YOU, that these signals
lead to a very warm September nationwide. And so we are rolling out of
August into September looking much like that. The same kind of pattern
that may lead to five more names by September 20th (we have had two
already since August 20th) may go hand in hand with the same pattern that
is leading to the widespread warmth. It is interesting to note that weak
El Nino seasons such as 2002 and 1969 with higher-than-average hurricane
intensity production in the Gulf had cold winters behind them east of the
Mississippi. Enough said about that. 

For East Coast residents, the tropical outlook this
morning was meant to show the danger of this pattern with that trof near
the West Coast the way it is in the means. The storm shown was Carol in
1954. The current situation is such that the pattern pulse is very
definitely arriving, one only need look at the increase in convective
systems in the Atlantic. 

Katrina: 

The steady improvement of the storm's structure and the
reversal of the pattern aloft means a very dangerous situation for the
southeast Florida coast as jaw-dropping intensification is possible
before landfall, and the hurricane center, aware of this, is letting
people know with the hurricane watch. I am hoping people understand that
from West Palm southward, this is probably worse than any of the
hurricanes last year, and they are not caught off guard. The storm will
slow a bit and turn more to the west tonight, but I do not believe the
U.S. models in the least as I think this will get into the Gulf and far
enough out there, so I am not trending eastward at this time with the
path. The European, Japanese model and even the GFDL are all much farther
west in the Gulf. Modeling is divided into two camps, and right now,
ideas from a few days ago are working just fine. In fact, the position of
the storm is well ahead of just fine. In fact, the position of the storm
is well ahead of model forecasts. The danger is that the storm can have a
20- to 30-mb drop before landfall easily, and can be a category 2 should
landfall be delayed until tomorrow night, and that looks like it will be
between Miami and West Palm. 

The screaming message of the GFDL with its tremendous
deepening on the last two runs is that the overall pattern is ripe for
development. Its mistake is the turn southwestward under Florida. But all
modeling show the storm deepening once over the water west of Florida,
indicating at the very least the pattern is there. 

My track and numbers speak for themselves. The wildest
model is the Canadian with its 28.83 low over Atlantic City next Tuesday
morning, the second run in a row of the monster that deepens northeast.
This is because the system is surrounded by favorable development
parameters, and the European idea is not far behind. I think the
post-landfall path in relation to the East Coast is a cross between Ivan
and Jeanne, though there will be no turnaround of this storm, but the
threat it becomes a hurricane again near the mid-Atlantic coast as it
comes over flat ground, with bay temperatures near 85 and ocean
temperatures near 80. The forecast, though, stands as is. 

Basically I am relying on the amplification I see over the
Pacific, because although transient, the downstream response should be to
hook up with Katrina and bring it to the mid-Atlantic coast as a deep
hybrid with heavy rain, high winds and severe weather. 

Once past this, the overall pattern still has the same
places candidates for development in the longer range. Katrina won't be
our last challenge, though she is posing quite a challenge. 

Note: It is possible that both zones 5 and 3 get their
impact points in one fell swoop as this could be category 2's in both
places. Impact points for the U.S. total are only scored with storms at
their closest approach to a zone from the water, not when inland, so
while a place like the Carolina zone will get points, they won't count to
the seasonal total for the entire U.S. impact, just the zone total. This
is, of course, another attempt to become more definitive in forecasting
and assessing the season. The final point totals will be determined at
the end of the year and will include in TPC ideas on intensity of
systems. The storm will probably score at least 2's all the way to New
England as far as zone effects go. Please read the hurricane forecast for
how this works. 

Ciao for now. 

No changes on Katrina as far as path and intensity go as
models are at war with the path. I feel the end game sticks this over the
mid-Atlantic states the middle of next week with pressures and winds as forecasted
below. The rate of intensification should increase and rapid development
may take place before the first landfall. Additional comments are coming
with the post later. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY 12:30 P.M.: POSITION IDEA BELOW. KATRINA LOOKING
MEANA. 

The track and intensity posts below are similar to TPC in
track, but stronger on the intensity, based on the idea that the storm
will be very close to hurricane strength at landfall tomorrow and its
structure will improve as it continues westward across South Florida. It
is one thing for the storm to hit at its strongest point, have its inner
core destroyed and then have to overcome the outer bands that are not
destroyed competing with it. This is why we hit the intensity forecast so
well with storms that hit land, such as Dennis and Emily, knowing it
would take a while for them to roar back, but that they would. In the
case of Isadore, which we also hit in that we said it was never going to
make it back until the very end, it was a matter of the storm being over
land so long it became like a giant non-tropical system with all the
strong winds so far away, only until the center started moving toward the
wind did it start to come back. As long as Katrina keeps moving over
Florida, it will come out and probably be back to its pre-landfall
intensity, providing that is not anything beyond a category 1 hurricane,
within 24 hours. 

But let's examine this intensity issue before and after
first landfall. There is a chance this could really ramp up fast in the
last 12 hours, and I, for one, am nervous about this. Because it will hit
Florida almost perpendicular from the east, and the farther west it goes,
the warmer the water is, the better this pattern, the greater the pulse
signal part of the pattern, the more risk there is. Again, some
noteworthy storms have blown up in the last 12 hours, and the idea from
the hurricane center that a hurricane warning may be needed is well worth
everyone's while. This is why the 6z GFDL went bonkers on intensity. It
sees the parameters for development improving farther west and north.
While the combination of the storm still organizing and the remnants of
the strong northeast flow aloft can limit development this afternoon, by
tomorrow at this time, that is gone. It is, to be blunt, scary stuff. In
fact, by tomorrow morning, the 200/850 couplet is as perfect as I could
have drawn. 

Essential to the second spurt is the idea the storm gets
more than 100 miles away from the west coast of Florida. The in-close
storm on west of the peninsula rarely will intensify if it had been
strong, or is strong. The fact is the storm pulls dry air in from the
east and causes upwelling. So it has to get out away from the coast. This
is a case where track and intensity in the Gulf go hand in hand in scratching
each other's backs. 

I don't think there is much doubt this will turn northeast
of 90, and right now my landfall point is between 86 and 87 for the
second landfall. If it gets out there like that, while the GFDL may be
overdone, then it can develop to a category 2 or 3. 

The major amplification (though transient and brief, is
definitely there, near 145 west and 165 east) supplies the ammo for the
recurve and us winding up with a formidable storm all the way to the
mid-Atlantic states. A piece of the trof that comes through the Lakes
should tail southward into the Ohio Valley and pick this up Monday or
Tuesday, so it's doubtful the western Gulf has to worry. I feel this
system will be surrounded by warm, moist tropical air in its overland
journey. Unlike Charley, which was a small storm coming into a building
ridge, this will be tugging on air well above normal temperature-wise and
dew point-wise Monday and Tuesday with a warm ocean that it can run to.
We have seen cases like this where storms have weakened to nearly
tropical storm status, or below, then come roaring back as they
approached the coast. With 80-degree water temperatures all the way to
Atlantic City, the moral is, the farther east the track, the worse the
storm will be up the coast, though, of course, the less the problem on
the Gulf side of things. In fact, this should score impact points all the
way to New England before it's all said and done. The intensity and track
forecast speak for themselves right now. Interestingly enough, even if the
GFS idea of this staying near or off Florida's east coast was right, it
would still probably wind up near the mid-Atlantic coast as the
parameters that it is in a big argument about have to do with the ridge
over the south and how much it can push it westward. The U.S. models have
been in their own world the entire time on this, be it not seeing the
storm or keeping it farther out. 

ONE IMPORTANT POINT... A TREND FARTHER EAST SOUTH OF 30
NORTH DOES LOOK MORE LIKELY TO ME THAN ONE WEST, and this was the point
yesterday. I will update tracks as need be on this. 

In the wake of this, there is no rest as by late next
week, another threat may be looming. The increase in convection now
evident all the way into the Atlantic to 55 west is a sign this pulse is
getting established, and so the track race talked about may indeed be
underway as discussed. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY 10:30 A.M.: 

Here are my forecast positions and intensities on Katrina.
A major tropical discussion will follow later today. 

12z Thursday August 25: 26.5/78.8, 994 mb, 55 knots. 

12z Friday August 26: 27.0/81.0, 994 mb, 55 knots. 

12z Saturday August 27: 27.0/83.0, 988 mb, 65 knots. 

12z Sunday August 28: 28.0/85.0, 974 mb, 80 knots. 

12z Monday August 29: 30.0/86.8, 965 mb, 95 knots. 

12z Tuesday August 30: 33.0/84.8, 985 mb, 45 knots. 

12z Wednesday August 31: 36.0/81.8, 992 mb, 40 knots. 

12z Thursday September 1: 38.0/73.0, 992 mb, 50 knots. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

WEDNESDAY MORNING (EARLY) : LET THE GAMES BEGIN. 

 3.) Amplified trofs near 145 west and 165 east imply
southern branch trof split next week near 90 that should pick up what I
think will become a GULF storm, but will make it wind up over the mid-
Atlantic states the middle of next week. Possible track after second landfall
is a cross between Ivan and Jeanne. 

4.) There are many tough forecast issues with the storm,
outlined in previous posts (please refer to them). Track/intensity
guidance for you will be out around noon as the center should be
established. The GFS simply adds to the confusion, as usual, with any
big-ticket developing weather feature. Yesterday it didn't have it on 00z
run, now its way east. Its rack up east of 80 is as likely a path that
takes it west of 90. Right now my gut says category 2 or perhaps 3
hurricane hits in hurricane impact map zone 3 on second landfall. 

5.) Overall pattern says this is not the last one. Ten
days from now, a new storm will be in the same general area, and we may
see as many as two or three threats for the East Coast and Gulf during
the bursting period. NOTICE HOW CONVECTION, JUST LIKE IN THE EARLY
SEASON, INCREASES MARKEDLY WEST OF 60 AS LATEST TROPICAL WAVE IS BLOWING
UP THERE. That is part of the pattern pulse theory. 

6.) The central Atlantic tropical cyclone continues
westward. The theory is that it recurves and the aforementioned threat
comes from the next system. 

Ciao for now. 

THURSDAY
7:00 P.M.: SOUTHWEST SINKING KATRINA ASHORE ON RADAR MIDWAY BETWEEN FLL AND
MIA! KATRINA WILL EMERGE TOMORROW INTO THE GULF AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND. 

Again, I understand the things I say may not agree with other statements
coming from other sources. I don't need to know who is saying what, for they
will either be right or wrong, as I will be. So please, no email about this
person saying this or this model saying that. 

The storm has a.) MOVED SOUTH OF WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND b.)
IS INTENSIFYING. My feeling is this. After making its landfall, which is
south of Ft. Lauderdale by the look at their wind, turning around from west
northwest to northeast, it will turn southwestward later tonight and be back
into the coastal waters of southwest Florida tomorrow...MORNING! (See below
for why this "horse" will "run for the water.") The storm
is in an atmosphere ripe for development, and so its western feeder bands
will be intensifying over the water, as will feeder bands to the south. This
means the vectors surrounding the storm change, and what will look like the
storm moving more quickly will simply be the horse running for water. I
expect pressures to be no higher than 990 once to the water for six hours and
winds to be back to hurricane force shortly after, if they actually do drop.
Since it will be going over flat swamp late tonight and tomorrow, and it is
not a powerful storm, there is no need for it to weaken as a powerful storm
would as its requirements for its current status are less than, say, a storm
like Andrew. 

My other point is that this will be a major, dangerous Gulf
hurricane. With the exception of Irene, which took forever to finally reach
the forecast intensity, and of course TC 10, the other named systems have all
had excellent intensity forecast here even though the tracks have left
something to be desired. Even now, I am wondering if I have Ivaned this with
the farther east adjustment this morning, but I will address that later. The
fact is the track through Saturday from yesterday and today is not that far
away, and it's the westward arc that is the problem. But the number one model
message is not so much the track, but the intensity. The European is about
the strongest I have ever seen it forecast a storm now with lines in so close
at every 4 mb, you can't tell what the pressure is. It is still sub-975 mb
after hitting land for over 12 hours, a remarkable look for a global model.
At the very least, the "conservative" idea I have with the borderline
category 3 looks to be a lock. This could very easily reach Ivanesqe
intensity. 

Which brings us to the second hit, and the question, did I
make the same error I did on Ivan, but adjusting east from the original
landfall? Well, I am wondering that too. But this only has so far west it can
go before it can turn north. Once to Saturday afternoon, I don't think it can
get more than a degree or two farther west, it does not look like a storm
that will plow west-northwestward, but will instead drift and then turn. So if
it's over at 85 Saturday afternoon, then the problem is huge for everyone
from Seattle to Mobile, the former indirectly affecting the latter because
they would get hit, and it would open it up to the mouth of the Mississippi.
How did I get Seattle in there? Well, you can simply tack on more to fuel
costs, because if this storm gets back to 88 west, the prices are going to
take a hit. As it is, I think the track back through the peninsula is out, so
while southwest Flordia beaches do have a nasty storm, it is not coming back
across them, or at least I think that danger is lessening. Again, somehow, by
hook or by crook, I think anything from a hybrid howler to a storm still
having hurricane conditions will be in the coastal mid-Atlantic states
Wednesday and into New England Thursday or Thursday night. 

It will be a very tough morning tomorrow morning trying to
decide how to play with the next track, but to me, if you want to send this
west farther, you have to make it grow into a monster. 

A comment was made about the GFS earlier and it remains the
eastward outlier. Its midday run took the storm out south of Hatteras. Among
the bizarre solutions is the Canadian developing a new storm east of Hatteras
over the weekend. My take, though, is that there is so much going on that the
models are wailing and gnashing their teeth also. But look, this was, and is,
and was forecasted to be, a very tough storm. There is nothing tougher than
storms heading into areas where they can intensify from nothing. The common
person up until now, unless reading here, or watching me salivate on videos
(I get a shot before I am on TV and they stick the shock collar on) as to how
strong this can get. So the most consistent has been the European, which
outside of last night's run, was always in zone 3 of our impact forecast
chart. It is back there again, but with all the other Gulf storms, it has
been too far west. The UKMET is in the same joke land as the GFS as far as it
being erratic. The 00z run yesterday off south of Hatteras, today's 12z makes
it look like Ivan. The ETA is all over the place. The Japanese model has been
in the Euro camp for the most part. The Canadian has been the most constant
up the East Coast. I have been most confident since this really got on the
radar screen of other forecast services about how this behaves through
Saturday morning and then how we end the middle of next week. But the model
spray is simply confirming the ideas from the start that called for this to
cause great wailing and gnashing of teeth. 

And more is in store for us with this storm, and with a cross
now being used by me for September between 1954, 1999, 1995, 1933 and now
2002, it means summer rolls on for much of the nation (you folks who are cool
now are about to get warm; Texas, like the start of the season, is back in
the frying pan, and the hurricane burst is underway). And here is another
prediction...after Katrina is gone, other storms will cause more wailing and
gnashing of teeth. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

THURSDAY 3:30 P.M.: SURPRISE! RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS
AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO A HURRICANE. 

Enough said. 

********** 

THURSDAY 1:00 P.M.: NEW TRACK BELOW. KATRINA A HURRICANE; HIT
LATER TODAY NEAR AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF FT. LAUDERDALE. 

Look, I am going to call it as I see it. With an eye feature
at 990 mb, AND THAT DROP IS LIABLE TO REACH ANOTHER 10-20 MB BEFORE LANDFALL,
this is a hurricane. And as far as winds "coming down to the
surface," well, they will if they aren't there, I still don't understand
how we can't figure out it is impossible to find the strongest wind all the
time in each mission pass, as the eye gets closer to land and that wall
tightens more. Somehow this gets portrayed into sudden updates when it was
there all the time. One only need look at pressure and structure. This
ongoing battle is simply me stating my opinion and I would not be surprised
to see a sudden "discovery" of the hurricane winds this afternoon.
But again, it's my opinion, and of course is subject to your debate. 

I have no changes from the track ideas below. The UKMET and
ETA rip the system quickly into the Gulf, but the ETA has been all over the
place with this. The GFS continues its west trend and is now in the middle.
Again, as per the comment this morning, it was two days ago this was taking
this up near or east of Florida. The models always having it west, and the
MODEL (EURGA) that actually held onto it the entire time have done
better...so far. 

There is plenty to be concerned about, though. First of all,
the system has had a south of west move over the past few hours and the path
should probably take it in near Ft. Lauderdale. I have chosen to hug the 26th
latitude for the crossing but I am very worried it gets inland moving south
of west and then simply turns southwestward late tonight and tomorrow, if not
before it hits. 

With the superior outflow developing the structure should not
be impeded overall by the land crossing, and it will quickly ramp back up to
where it is at landfall. In other words, the friction will cause it to
weaken, but the overall look may stay the same. Any turn to the southwest,
which is possible anytime until it reaches the Gulf would cause it to be back
over the water quickly. The path, 100 miles or so offshore as it is by me is
one that can keep it deepening and I see now reason why this can't ramp up
over the Gulf to the pressures and winds forecasted. 

I am calling it as I see them here. 11 mb pressure drops are
more than 10 mph wind increases in weak storms. At the very least, with the
frictional effects that will tighten this eyewall, it is enough to support
this being a hurricane already at landfall. Since that is still several hours
away, with the strong outflow jet now developing to the east, there is a real
problem in the making here, another 10-20 mb could come off this before first
landfall later today and it would be a shame if people were caught off guard
by such a things. 

I have no changes in the idea that this will wind up over the
mid-Atlantic states as, at the very least, a massive hybrid howler all the
way to New England, and perhaps even as a storm that will cause hurricane
gusts much of its journey on the beaches. 

********** 

THURSDAY 10:20 AM: NEW TRACK (OLD STILL FOR COMPARISON). 

Yesterday's forecast valid times 12z: 

12z Thursday, August 25, 26.5/78.8, 994 mb, 55 knots. (Note:
given verified pressure at 1503z recon, the 994 and 55 knots looks like a
hit. Pressure at 990 mb and Doppler readouts are higher than 55 knots.) 

12z Friday, August 26, 27.0/81.0, 994 mb, 55 knots. 

12z Saturday, August 27, 27.0/83.0, 988 mb, 65 knots. 

12z Sunday August 28, 28.0/85.0, 974 mb, 80 knots. 

12z Monday, August 29, 30.0/86.8, 965 mb, 95 knots. 

12z Tuesday, August 30, 33.0/84.8, 45 knots. 

12z Wednesday, August 31, 36.0/81.8, 992 mb, 40 knots. 

12z Thursday, September 1, 38.0/73.0, 992 mb, 50 knots. 

Issued Thursday: 

Tomorrow, 26/80.5, 980 mb, 70 knots. 

Saturday, 26/82, 980 mb, 70 knots. 

Sunday, 28/83, 965 mb, 95 knots. 

Monday, 31/82.6, 980 mb, 70 knots. 

Tuesday, 34/79, 990 mb, 45 knots. 

Wednesday, 37/76, 985 mb, 55 knots. 

Thursday, 40/73, 980mb, 60 knots. 

********** 

THURSDAY MORNING 7:40 A.M. 

A new position and intensity forecast will be out later this
morning. The track takes it over Florida SOUTH OF 26 NORTH and has a category
2 hurricane paralleling the west coast. The danger is it is even farther
south, then makes a turn earlier and goes in south of TPA Sunday night
perhaps as a major hurricane. I see and respect TPC ideas, but I think the
storm is a.) Intensifying fast and b.) Starting to turn south of west
already. Striking parallels to Donna in 1960 in the overall pattern are shown
on Tropical Outlook video. The moral of both yesterday with Carol, and today
with Donna, was to provide visual evidence for my theory about this being a
powerful feature all the way to New England. Donna is the only storm we know
to bring hurricane-force winds from Florida to Maine. With water the way it
is, a track within 50 miles of the coast through the Carolinas and then over
the Delmarva to New England has a shot. 

THIS IS NO CHARLEY. Heavy rain will be a problem with and west
of the path. 

As for Florida, the difficulty in track and intensity grows by
the minute as the farther south track gives credence to the worry about the
exploding storm in front of our eyes today. 

By the way, the remnants of 10 are showing up in the spin you
see in the Gulf at 25 north, 87 west and moving away. 

Interestingly enough, the GFS, after spending five days
killing this system and having it disappear, and then catching it, but
keeping it east of Florida, on its 6z run, finally looks like it is in shape
with a path near or off the west coast. The fact that the area between Tampa
and Cape San Blas is a no-man’s land for category 2 or greater storms makes
me very nervous about this system trying to go in there. I don't think it can
get west of 85. In any case, the west coast, if I am right, is going to take
a beating, perhaps similar to Elena in 1985. Again, TPC is not in my camp
here, and I respect their ideas. 

The Euro, up until now, when it has flipped the eastern track,
was the hero, for it supplied support in model land for why I kept tracking
this as it had it all along. Its 7-day forecast for today had it near Grand Bahama!
If a model does not see something until two days away, and the other model
does, the other is superior. However, that being said, the two are now lining
up, and the idea of Katrina being a major weather event from Florida to Maine
is becoming a better bet. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

THURSDAY MORNING: KATRINA PATH IN SOUTHEAST AND GULF FARTHER
EAST...STORM TO BLAST FLORIDA TO MAINE NEW POSITIONS, POST LATER...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN END GAME POSITIONS (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY) BUT STRONGER STORM THERE. 

The storm will undergo rapid intensification today and move
through Florida over the Everglades tonight and tomorrow morning. 

More later. 

Ciao for now. 

PATTERN
OVERVIEW: SUMMER ENDING THE WAY IT STARTED, WARM WITH THE TROPICS ALIVE. 

Below is an afternoon update on Katrina. It is rare when I
have gone back and forth on a storm so much, the paths being very close to
TPC up until now, the big difference having been 1.) The stubborn refusal to
"give up" on the complex that was coming across the Atlantic and
2.) The intensity forecast, both for Florida and now for the Gulf. 

However, depending on what they decided to do, and I don't
know because I won't look until this is done, the intimidation by this storm
and the weather is over. That means I now believe I have it, the track, and
as happens sometimes, the first idea (farther west) was the best idea. In any
case, right or wrong, at least I think I know what it's going to do. I knew
that until this got into the Gulf, its true colors as far as projected path
would not be revealed to me. Maybe someone else, but not to me. Waffling back
and forth does not count as having a correct forecast until one sticks with a
forecast. The only observation was that my normal stubbornness would have
served me well, but I simply could not hang in with it given what I knew was
going to turn out to be a major, and now I believe a catastrophic, and
perhaps far-reaching, hurricane. Should the refinery at Pascagoula take a
direct hit from a category 4 or 5 storm, which this could very well be at
landfall, the economic impact will be far reaching. The forecast is below. 

But the reason for the farther west path is the revenge of the
ridge. It is fitting that now that we are late in summer, the Atlantic ridge
being stronger, is what is forcing the hand in the end. The storm's slowness
of movement overall means the ridge is back in building mode, so the center
of the storm, which will be a big-ticket item well inland this week will
outline the western part of the ridge. The new track means the southeast and
mid-Atlantic turn into a sauna next week, not a swamp, and it's the
Appalachians westward to the Tennessee Valley, lower Lakes and eastern and
central Ohio Valley that bear the brunt of the rain. The storm unloads on
much of New England too, but rain amounts in the East are primarily
convective when the storm leaves. 

A special note: It is very difficult to answer email now. I am
trying to read it and incorporate enough into the discussions, which are
frequent. However, with the responsibility I have, and believe me, I love and
cherish it, there is only so much I can do. I appreciate deeply anyone who
writes me, and I will do the best I can to respond, but I know you understand
if I can't. 

Zones tomorrow. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

FRIDAY 4:00 P.M. MAJOR EMERGENCY POST: KATRINA THREATENING TO
BECOME CATASTROPHE. 

NEW POSITIONS TO REPLACE THIS MORNING 

SATURDAY: 25.5, 85.5, 960 MB, 105 KTS. 

SUNDAY: 27.0, 88.0, 940 MB, 125 KTS. 

MONDAY: 28.5, 89.5, 920 MB, 135 KTS. 

TUESDAY: 32, 89, 960 MB, 90 KTS. 

WEDNESDAY: 35, 85, 985 MB, 45 KTS. 

THURSDAY: 40, 80, 992 MB, 30 KTS. 

FRIDAY: 42, 70, 996 MB, 25 KTS. 

The track shift is 200-300 miles west. Reasoning and a longer
post, along with the pattern overview, will be out later. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

FRIDAY MIDDAY: KATRINA EXPLODES AS THE STRONGEST GULF
HURRICANE SINCE CAMILLE EAST OF 90, NORTH OF 25 IS POSSIBLE. 

There is no need to pussyfoot around any longer about this
storm's intensity. The stand here has been at least a category 3, and now I
think 4 is a lock, and it may go to 5. The pressures below indicate pressures
at ob time, but we may should see 920 to 930 Sunday afternoon. THIS WILL NOT
WEAKEN APPRECIABLY BEFORE LANDFALL, and the pressure Monday is after
landfall, so being very intense, it can weaken that quickly (5 to 3 within 6
hours of landfall). 

Sat.: 26.2/82.5, 90 knots, 970 mb* revised to 960 at 11:30
a.m. 

Sun.: 28/84, 120 knots, 940mb* pressure could touch 920 around
landfall Sunday night. 

Mon.: 30.0/85.5, 105 knots, 950 mb 

Tues.: 33.5/ 82.0, 50 knots, 985 mb 

Wed.: 37.5/78.0, 50 knots, 985 mb 

Thu.: 40.0/73.0, 60 knots, 980 mb 

As rapid as my ramp us was and is, it has not been enough, and
this may hit 145 knots before it's all said and done. It is rare when
something as loaded for intensification as this is comes along. 

Two major issues remain. The first is the path in the Gulf.
There is continued reason to worry about a more westward path, though the
slowing of the storm, which was talked about once it hit the water, makes it
encouraging (if one can use that as a term here when someone is going to get
hit by the worst hurricane in over 30 years on the Gulf Coast) that the path
is correct. But a storm of this magnitude should adopt a safe, not sorry,
perspective. For energy interests, a strike near Pascagoula at the refinery
by a storm like this, though right now the westward threat is something that
would have major repercussions in energy. I can't overemphasize my confidence
on this storm becoming the strongest of the strong when in these coastal
waters. The fact is this IS THE CLASSIC CASE of the storm busting the trof.
The overall pattern of lower pressure in all this area means the storm is
going to be able to draw from a longer distance, and the water is as warm as
we see it. 

I am torn between the idea of the east track, which I have,
and TPC has, and the farther west track as the arrow of clouds pointed at
southeast Louisiana may mean this storm is trying to tell us something. 

The last part is the post-inland intensity and track. I am
drawing on the idea that the storm's heat has to be conserved to some degree
and non-tropical processes caused by the trof picking it up will maintain a
nasty inland storm for a couple of days. I am just hoping that the lessons of
Ivan and Jeanne are not lost on people who are in charge of official
hurricane bulletins. With the responsibility of tacking on a name comes the
responsibility of not getting rid of the storm too quickly. Ivan, along with
flooding, caused a tree blow-down all the way to Pennsylvania. Jeanne should
have been declared what it was when it came off the East Coast, a tropical
storm. The path I have is pure teleconnection idea. The typhoon that hit in
Japan turned northeastward and came off Japan near 37 north. I think this
will try that too. The large circulation, the buckling of the upper trof, and
the very warm water all argue that this could very well do what Camille did
when it hit the coast, assuming the track is right, and that is go right back
to being a hurricane. In fact, this storm could be a rare 3-hit storm, for if
it came out at the Delmarva and went back in over New England, it would count
for a third hit. 

However, all that goes down the drain if the midday GFS is
right as it takes the storm to New Orleans! Just great. Four days ago, it
doesn't see it. Three days ago, it keeps it east of Florida. Now it's taking
it right into the area that would lead to the oil and gas industry being
brought to its knees. My feeling is that once to tomorrow evening, it won't
move over more than one more degree...if it's at 88, it's gas and oil through
the roof. As usual it's Friday that all this goes on. 

The storm was a classic "ignore the models and confront
reality" in South Florida. By all the accounts I have received, the
damage was greater than the public in general thought it would be. The eye
tightened and the REAL WIND GIVEN THE PRESSURE SHOWED UP! The storm then ran
for the Gulf. The improving size and structure as soon as it came offshore
meant the crossing of South Florida was a bump in the road with a storm that
intensity-wise will go down in the same breath as Camille and Andrew wherever
it makes landfall. 

The fact that the above was forecasted fairly well, and it
must have been judging by what subscribers down there say (if you went
through the storm, then you are qualified to say what was good and bad in the
forecasts. I learned after Isabel simply not to pay attention to anyone 600
miles away who says such and such wasn't so bad when people who went through
it are the true judges of what happened to them and who said what first)
well, THAT MEANS NOTHING NOW. I discussed early in the week that this had me
intimidated, and it still does. I am sure as I can be that this is going to
940 or below and could hit 920 within 150 miles of the coast (remember, Ivan
started to weaken). I think this will lose very little before landfall. But I
still have the fear that the first idea may have been the best, but I want to
study this more. As I said a few days ago, when the GFS had no storm on it,
unless this is monkey typing out a word, it will add to the confusion, not
help the solution. 

I LEAVE WITH THIS FOR NOW. THIS IS A POTENTIAL CATASTROPHE IN
THE MAKING, AND FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, PLANS SHOULD BE MADE
TO TAKE ACTION IF CALLED UPON TO DO SO. The only "saving grace" is
there will be time to prepare. It's moving slow. The downside is that with
the pattern the way it is, the storm could be one of the top Gulf hurricane
hits in modern times. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

FRIDAY MORNING VERY EARLY: KATRINA TO BE MAJOR HURRICANE,
SCORE SECOND LANDFALL BETWEEN PNS AND AQQ. SUMMER ROLLS ON IN THE MEANS ALA
PREVIOUS WARM, TROPICAL-FILLED SEPTEMBERS. 

5.) Tropical burst will continue. Katrina scores at least one
more intial water to land impact, The Gulf and perhaps a third - New England.


a.) The Euro develops the strongest monster I have ever seen
on a global model. A point was brought up yesterday evening, 11:00 p.m. TPC
disco, with many of those points in it. TPC is on board with intensity now. 

b.) I still think the path is very similar into the
mid-Atlantic hybrid howler and perhaps even a hurricane again with abnormally
warm water being drawn on. Remember Jeanne and Ivan - both were major wind
producers long after being downgraded by others. 

c.) The Euro is the farthest west, with an Ivanesque path. It
leaves the original idea of a farther west movement here on table and
associated energy dangers. New track and intensity forecast later. 

d.) Tremendous rain is likely for much of nation from the
Appalachians eastward, not only with Katrina, but with one-month means.
September 2002 was the year of NJdrought.com busses being flooded by rising
waters as fall progressed. 

A new track idea will come out later this morning. 

Ciao for now. 

SATURDAY
P.M.: KATRINA ON TRACK FOR BIG HIT ON THE BIG EASY. 

I have no changes to the track given yesterday afternoon,
though timing may get played with. The central pressure of the storm now at
942 is the lowest pressure ever reported with a storm of winds of 115 mph. In
a study of the last ten years, all storms with pressures of 952 or lower had
winds of 120 miles or more on TPC bulletins and what the average was. The
only storm I could find with a pressure of 950 and windspeed of 115 was Hugo,
another storm I was ranting about when such things were getting reported,
since the true wind of the storm in landfall situations of tropical cyclones
where pressures are falling will be ramped up. It is my contention that there
are higher winds, that the flight level winds are probably down at the
surface, though maybe not right under the strong winds. But with the
pressures so low, the transfer of the wind to the surface is easier to occur.
In any case, the eye will have to tighten due to frictional effects of the
storm plowing perpendicular in from the south. The north part of the eye gets
"squeezed," enhancing convergence, and, of course, as Hugo hit
perpendicular, winds speeds with a 15 mb fall "jumped" to near 140,
or the true wind for a 934 mb hurricane. 

My forecast is calling for this to hit 915 mb. The GFDL is now
down to near 920 mb at landfall. There are no changes in my ideas. Folks
reading this should expect the storm to be a solid category 4 and probably a
category 5. Of course, that will score a kajillion hit points, but not in the
Carolinas, but the original target area. Keep in mind I emphasized the Gulf
was not done, but this is a wild occurrence, good for the overall total but
in excess of what I thought the Gulf would get the rest of the way in. 

However, the meat of the season is now arriving. Four systems
have to be watched. The closest "problem" is the small system south
of Hatteras. The ETA and REGGIE (Canadian ETA) make the most of this not so
much by developing some monster, but by allowing the systems to be the
southern end of front that stalls and dumps a band of heavy rain from New
England to Virginia. It's the 18z ETA that is the most insistent on some kind
of development with its 1004 mb low pressure at the mouth of the Delaware. I
am torn here a bit, mostly about the heavy rain, which is what I am most
worried about. One of the analog years I am using for September is 2002, and
that was a very wet late summer and fall on the East Coast (Jersey went from
drought to flood). It was because of all the warm water off the coast. 

The system I thought would be near 60 west and 20 north by
tomorrow is at 22 north and 52 west and sheared. However, following it, and
apparently under it, is a large disturbance with a center near 12 north and
40 west. It has all its convection out in front, usually a sign for
development. Most models destroy it, a strange thing given its look. But
before I start screaming Labor Day hurricane, let's see what it looks like
tomorrow. 

The Europeans next "storm" that it gets across is
coming off Africa, and it has it in the Florida straits the Tuesday after
Labor Day. Don't snicker. It carried Katrina when nothing else saw it and had
it over Grand Bahama Thursday morning, and that wasn't bad from a week out. 

One more thing that will have to be watched - when Katrina
leaves, pressures over the southwest Atlantic late next week will still be
low. Whether it's the aforementioned wave near 12 and 40, a piece of it, or
just the low pressures themselves, all indications are that the ridge will be
building back in the western Atlantic quickly, and so that will be an area of
development. It's kind of hard to believe that next week at this time, with
all that is going on, at least one, if not two, new system won't show up. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

Saturday afternoon: 

I got an email here that I want to relay on to you. In my
opinion, it's really something. 

"I know you have tons to deal with, but this popped up in
an academic's discussion of Katrina, and I thought I would forward it to you.
Pretty doggone interesting... 

Foremost, Katrina will be moving over very warm waters
situated to within 100 miles of the U.S. north-central Gulf Coast on late
Sunday. If Katrina moves just east of lower Louisiana, as currently forecast,
some of those SSTs may be on the order of 32 degrees Celsius. In addition,
Katrina will be accessing discharge flowing into the Gulf of Mexico from the
Mississippi River. This area of the Gulf waters will be higher in sediments.
These mineral particles help with electrical influences on the hurricane, creating
a higher oceanic conductivity. This increased conductivity is expected to
allow Katrina a greater frequency of lightning strikes as the hurricane
approaches the Mississippi Delta. This phenomenon will prompt what
Krasilnikov (2002, peer reviewed) describes as a "coagulation
process" that corresponds with intensified storm convective activity. 

Although controversial, the reality of these electrical
influences on storm intensity is suggested by climatology. Reviewing where
hurricanes reached Category 4 or 5 strength in the Gulf of Mexico shows a
disproportionate number as having done so within the discharge zones of each
the Mississippi and Rio Grande river. 

In any case, I thought you would get a charge out of this
enlightening piece of work." 

I have no changes in the Katrina ideas from earlier for now. 

By the way, we have a chart of eleven storms at 950 mb
pressures and have found that the average wind speed listed by TPC at that
pressure was 125.1 mph with no speed under 120 mph. The moral is that the
real wind of this storm, assuming eye tightening at land, is above the listed
wind. Recon, despite the pressure rise, is finding flight level to 130 mph
now. However, when using wind as measurement, one can be tempted to skew the
wind speed to a forecast. This is why pressure is always the greatest
objective measure of the TROPICAL storms strength, as one can't do too much
fiddling with that. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

SATURDAY ZONE PRESS: 

TROPICS: Katrina is back to a category 3 at 120 mph and 949.
The system is expanding, and there will be another burst of rapid deepening
tomorrow perhaps until landfall. More comments will come later this
afternoon, and the tropical outlook video should be cut. 

The African wave train has two system that can reach the
western Atlantic over the next ten days. Both appear weak enough to get under
the trof. A homegrown subtropical system along the Virginia Capes Monday
could be big rainmaker up to southern New England. 

Katrina leaves Friday and the southwest Atlantic has to be
watched for in-close development over the weekend. 

A burst of development now more related to water profiles and
the time of year than the overall signal, as the Atlantic part is calming
down, but with an analog to 2002, the moral is that nothing can be trusted 

Score after Tuesday will be two of the three landfalls, both
with one storm and two named storms. Period of three landfalls (at least one
major) and seven names ends September 20th. 

Zones 1, 2: Tropical air coming northward during the week
means a more warm and humid pattern rather than a hot one. Headaches start
right off the bat with a small subtropical system and inverted trof
activating near the coast tapping very moist ocean air and causing a band of
tropical rain near the coast Sunday into Tuesday. Katrina is currently
forecast over the area Thursday, but she comes from the west, not the
southwest, in my idea, which I am not certain of yet. Another heavy rain
event is in store for the entire area later in the week rather than just
coastal areas as it may be early in the week. Stay tuned, as a Katrina
following Ivan's path to the coast would continue northeastward after that as
a howling hybrid. For now, though, the call is a weaker, though wet, system.
There will be a drying out and cooling down for Friday, but it will be warmer
over the weekend and much of next week. We have to watch the Tropics Labor
Day weekend and beyond. 

Zone 3: Threat of heavy coastal rain with inverted trof with
subtropical system near the Virginia Capes early in the week. Very warm,
humid pattern Monday-Wednesday, and the big problem is Katrina's path as
there is still a chance it comes off farther south resulting in heavier rain
and stronger winds. Biggest threat of flooding is in the mountains with Katrina,
but stay tuned for updates. Cooler Friday, but it warms right back up. We
have to watch the Tropics Labor Day weekend and beyond. 

Zone 4: Heaviest rain with Katrina with flooding and amounts
to 10 inches hit mountains Tuesday into Wednesday; lesser amounts farther
east in the steambath pattern. The forecast now is based on the track up west
of the mountains, but this must be watched. Very warm to hot pattern develops
later in the week and next week. We have to watch the tropics Labor Day
weekend and beyond. 

Zone 5: African wave train has the next system 5-7 days away,
and deep tropical air mass in the area promotes afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, but nothing like last week in the pipeline for next several
days. The Tropics must be watched through Labor Day weekend and beyond. 

Zone 6: Katrina comes calling with heavy, flooding rain
Wednesday ending Thursday. This assumes a track is up west of the mountains,
then through. This will be a drought quencher in areas that are dry. It's
cooler in its wake, but it will warm up again next week. 

Zone 7: Heavy rain in the eastern and central sections with up
to 10 inches near the path of Katrina later Tuesday into Wednesday. It will
dry out Thursday with a warmer-than-normal Labor Day weekend on the way. 

Zone 8: Katrina blasts through Monday and Tuesday with
hurricane conditions to 150 miles inland in path, and a devastating storm on
the coast. The storm takes 36 hours to move through. Tornadoes are a major
problem east of the path. This will be handled more in breaking weather news.
It will be warmer than normal once the storm is out of their hair, but the
Tropics have to be watched for the Labor Day weekend. 

Zone 9: Heavy rain is possible from Katrina from the I-90
corridor into southern Ontario midweek. The pattern starts warm, goes to
normal, then turns warmer and dry Labor Day weekend. Big news, though, would
be heavy widespread rain from Katrina. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

SATURDAY MORNING KATRINA POSITION FORECAST. 

INITIAL: 12Z SATURDAY: 24.4, 84.6, 940 MB, 115 KTS. 

SUNDAY: 26.0, 88.0, 925 MB, 130 KTS. 

MONDAY: 28.5, 89.5, 915 MB, 135 KTS. 

TUESDAY: 32, 89, 960 MB, 90 KTS. 

WEDNESDAY: 35, 85, 985 MB, 45 KTS. 

THURSDAY: 40, 80, 992 MB, 30 KTS. 

FRIDAY: 42, 70, 996 MB, 25 KTS. 

Notes: The path would be a damaging storm for New Orleans,
perhaps catastrophic for Mississippi Gulf coast slammed by Camille. Energy
price implications speak for themselves for all Americans if the refinery at
Pascagoula suffers major damage. Also, with the season not done, it puts
pressure on the Lake Charles area later to stay out of the way. 

At 940 mb with a tight eye, the winds are at 130. We can't
have things like this 955 and category 4s when storms are weakening (Emily,
first pass on Yucatan, and damage and quick recovery indicated it was not a
category 4 there) and 940 over 88-degree water lagging behind. Verification
should not be done on wind speed, which may naturally skew a forecaster
toward a forecast that had only 40 knots two days ago, but pressure
forecasts. 

It's like this. A motorcade is passing you by. All the city
streets are closed. There are cops and secret service everywhere. The
motorcade is on the way to the airport, where Air Force I is waiting. Who is
in the limo? 

Just because you don't see him, you can reasonably assume it's
the president. 

Well, just because the plane doesn't hit the strong wind
doesn't mean it's not there. In addition, I would think that Claudette and
now Katrina would make the point. The practical landfall wind for deepening
storms will show up close to what the Saffir-Simpson scale pressure gives. 

There are complaints running amuck that Katrina was worse in
South Florida than was forecasted by TPC. Well, that is really not true. They
had hurricane warnings up, but by only upping the winds to 60 mph when the
pressure fell to 990 mb, six hours before landfall, when that was already
hurricane threshhold with the eye on radar and tightening, the public may
have been taken offguard. That five days before, the only place a tropical
storm or hurricane was mentioned that I know was in the Florida network radio
(I am their meteorologist, and from late last week we had the threat in
there, and Monday it was the subject of the start of special sessions) and
the TVs we do, which all had mention of it Sunday afternoon, the threat,
probably started the ball rolling. But that being said, this makes another
case for my appeal for a more subjective scale to judge the practical
strength of the storm, one that stubborn old goats like me (I got an
application for AARP in the mail) were weaned on and don't consider old,
out-of-date science, but instead foundations to build on. MY sincere
suggestion to them is to please understand that the work of their own people
and ideas from the 80s were very very good. It does not diminish the value of
things today. 

940 = 130 mph over that water with that eye. The storm is on
its way to be every bit what was advertised here...and more. 

There may be more of an eastward shift in the longer range track
of this, but that will be looked at later. 

SUNDAY
11:15 A.M.: SOME HIGHLIGHTS OF UPCOMING PATTERN. SEPTEMBER 2002 ADDED TO
PATTERN MIX. 

1.) Katrina ideas are below. Please read. 

2.) Hurricane-bursting pattern is bearing fruit. There are
four systems to watch now. 

Note: I am doing my best with email, and I appreciate all
comments, whether I can answer them or not. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

SUNDAY MORNING: 

Here is the latest Katrina forecast from me: 

The storm has reached category 5 with 160-mph winds and a
pressure of 910 mb. Additional deepening to sub-900 mb may occur before
landfall. In the wake of the Thursday and Friday morning ideas on track, the
track issued Friday at 2:00 p.m. remains essentially unchanged. The discussed
intensity of 920 mb or lower has been reached, and breached. While I won't
make any direct comparison to TPC, there will be a complete rehashing of all
the position forecasts on my part and verified positions on one of the posts
at the end. I will leave it to the reader to compare what was being said at
what time and by whom. 

All times 12z: 

Initial: 25.7, 87.5, 910 mb, 140 knots. 

Monday: 29.0, 89.3, 910 mb, 140 knots. 

(Note - it can go as low as 895 before landfall, which is
tomorrow before noon. The track should be 15-30 east of MSY and the major
refinery at Pascagoula is probably going to take a direct hit.
Hurricane-force winds 150 east and 100 west of the center. Mobile Bay will
have a major surge; gusts to 100 miles an hour are possible. Hurricane
intensity will be maintained until almost the Tennessee border with major
inland tree damage and flooding. As has been the case all along, I am
continuing to get the point pounded home on the immensity of this storm, not
just the in-close power. It is a cross between the size of Betsy and the
power of Camille.) 

Tuesday: 33, 87, 960 mb, 90 knots. 

Wednesday: 37, 84, 980 mb, 45 knots. 

Thursday: 40, 77.5, 990 mb, 30 knots. 

Friday: 42, 70, 990 mb, 35 knots. 

Other notes: Storm will bust inland pressure records for
September in many places all the way to the Ohio Valley. The worry is still
there about the fade to east through the mid-Atlantic states. I will talk
about that later, along with several other looming challenges. 

A new tropical video was cut yesterday. Sunday weather
highlights will be posted later for upcoming week to two weeks. 

There is not much more to say about Katrina over the next 48
hours as the intensity ideas are obviously true and the track is such that
it's pretty much on target. However, other issues arise midweek, including
rogue development off Hatteras and a northward move toward New England in
front of Katrina. 
 

MONDAY
4:45 P.M.: LARGE-SCALE TROF SPLIT IN THE MAKING BETWEEN 80 AND 90 WEST OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 DAYS...SHORTENING WAVELENGTH MAKES DAYS 10-15 TOUGH OVER PLAINS
AND EAST...PATTERN THEN SHOULD SPLIT AGAIN. 

Why not? It's been happening all summer, so let it ride. Cross
what has happened against what looks like a September 2002 look, factor some
of the other items in (feedback, transition of season, previous years) and
then boldly go where no man has...oops, that's "Star Trek" (the old
version - I never watched those other versions that came later). 

Scotty, beam me up. I can't, Jim, the hurricane has taken all
my power. 

The song set up last week remains the same: the trof from
Katrina moves off the East Coast and splits this weekend. 

It will be interesting to see if, in the end, the first idea
was the best on the hurricane season. Certainly the early-season targeting of
the central Gulf Coast has been something that, no matter which way things
turn out, was a good call. As far as skeptics saying, what's the big deal,
well, it's not like that area gets hit all the time, and so far, they are
this year's Florida. However, here comes the meat of the season, and it will
be interesting to see how this turns out for the Eastern Seaboard and, of
course, whether the warmth overall forecasted for September (that map will be
put up on the Long Ranger at the end of the week or early next week) has
merit. In any case, the last several days have been as pressing a time as I
can remember, and Katrina, up until Friday afternoon, was a tough forecast as
I knew it would be (remember me saying I am very rarely intimidated, but even
before TPC upped this, I was saying how tough this would be?). By the way,
the reason I say it wasn't that tough after that is because the track issued
Friday at around 2:30 p.m. missed by only six miles on where the storm went.
Once that kept moving off Florida rather than just stopping, its intention
became clear. But it's all there for you to look at, including some of the
outrageous errors (60 mb and 500 miles) from Thursday, even though at ALL
TIMES I was well above any intensity idea issued by TPC. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

MONDAY MIDDAY KATRINA VERIFICATION SPECIAL. 

Six sets of forecasts were issued for Katrina by me since
Wednesday, including the Friday afternoon update, with valid times of 12z.
Below are the forecasts and results...the good, the bad and the ugly. A
comparison against TPC forecasts at the time of issuance and their results is
left to the reader. 

Posted Wednesday, Aug. 24: 

12z Thursday, August 25: 26.5/78.8, 994 mb, 55 knots; 12z
Friday, August 26: 27.0/81.0, 994 mb, 55 knots; 12z Saturday, August 27:
27.0/83.0, 988 mb, 65 knots; 12z Sunday, August 28: 28.0/85.0, 974 mb, 80
knots; 12z Monday, August 29: 30.0/86.8, 965 mb, 95 knots; 12z Tuesday,
August 30: 33.0/84.8, 985 mb, 45 knots; 12z Wednesday, August 31: 36.0/81.8,
992 mb, 40 knots; 12z Thursday, September 1: 38.0/73.0, 992 mb, 50 knots. 

Actual: 

Thursday: 26.2/79.0, 994 mb, 55 knots. Error: lat .3, long .2,
no error wind/pressure; Friday: 25.2/ 82.0, 984 mb, 70 knots. Error: lat 1.8,
long 1.0, 10 mb, 15 knots; Saturday: 24.4/84.6, 940 mb, 115 knots. Error: lat
2.6, long 1.6, 48 mb, 50 knots; Sunday: 25.7/87.5, 910 mb, 140 knots. Error:
lat 2.3, long 2.5, 64mb, 60 knots; Monday: 29.4/89.6, 920 mb, 125 knots.
Error: lat .6, long 2.8, 45 mb, 30 knots. 

Posted Thursday, Aug. 25: 

Tomorrow: 26/80.5, 980 mb, 70 knots; Saturday, 26/82, 980 mb,
70 knots; Sunday, 28/83, 965 mb, 95 knots; Monday, 31/82.6, 980 mb, 70 knots;
Tuesday, 34/79, 990 mb, 45 knots; Wednesday, 37/76, 985 mb, 55 knots;
Thursday, 40/73, 980mb, 60 knots. 

Actual: 

Friday: 25.2/82.0, 984 mb, 70 knots. Error: lat .8, long 1.5,
4 mb, 0; Saturday: 24.4/84.6, 940 mb, 115 knots. Error: lat 1.6, long 2.6, 40
mb, 45 knots; Sunday: 25.7/87.5, 910 mb, 140 knots. Error: lat 2.3, long 4.5,
55 mb, 45 knots; Monday: 29.4/89.6, 920 mb, 125 knots. Error: lat 1.6, long
7, 60 mb, 55 knots. 

Posted Friday, Aug. 26: 

Saturday: 26.2/82.5, 970 mb* revised to 960 at 11:30 a.m., 90
knots; Sunday: 28/84, 940mb* pressure could touch 920 around landfall Sunday
night, 120 knots; Monday: 30.0/85.5, 950 mb, 105 knots; Tuesday: 33.5/ 82.0,
985 mb, 50 knots; Wednesday: 37.5/78.0, 985 mb, 50 knots; Thursday:
40.0/73.0, 980 mb, 60 knots. 

Actual: 

Saturday: 24.4/84.6, 940 mb, 115 knots. Error: lat 1.8, lon
2.1, 10 mb, 10 knots; Sunday: 25.7/87.5, 910 mb, 140 knots. Error: lat 2.3,
lon 3.5, 30 mb, 20 knots; Monday: 29.4/89.6, 920 mb, 125 knots. Error: lat
.6, lon 4.1, 65 mb, 75 knots. 

FRIDAY P.M. ISSUED TO ENERGY CONCERNS 2:15 POST A BIT LATER.
REVISION SATURDAY: 25.5/85.5, 960 MB, 105 KNOTS; SUNDAY: 27.0/88.0, 940 MB,
125 KNOTS; MONDAY: 28.5/89.5, 920 MB, 135 KNOTS; TUESDAY: 32/89, 960 MB, 90
KNOTS; WEDNESDAY: 35/85, 985 MB, 45 KNOTS; THURSDAY: 40/80, 992MB, 30 KNOTS;
FRIDAY: 42/70, 996 MB, 25 KNOTS. 

Actual: 

Saturday: 24.4/84.6, 940 mb, 115 knots. Error: lat 1.1, lon
1.1, 20 mb, 10 knots; Sunday: 25.7/87.5, 910 mb, 140 knots. Error: lat 1.3,
lon .5, 30 mb, 15 knots; Monday: 29.4/89.6, 920 mb, 125 knots. Error: lat
1.1, lon .1, 0, 10 knots. 

Posted Saturday, Aug. 27: 

SATURDAY INITIAL 12Z: SATURDAY: 24.4/ 84.6, 940 MB, 115 KNOTS;
SUNDAY: 26.0/88.0, 925 MB, 130 KNOTS; MONDAY: 28.5/89.5, 915 MB, 135 KNOTS;
TUESDAY: 32/89, 960 MB, 90 KNOTS; WEDNESDAY: 35/85, 985 MB, 45 KNOTS;
THURSDAY: 40/80, 992 MB, 30 KNOTS; FRIDAY: 42/70, 996 MB, 25 KNOTS. Actual: 

Sunday: 25.7/87.5, 910 mb, 140 knots. Error: lat .4, lon .5,
15 mb, 10 knots; Monday: 29.4/89.6, 920 mb, 125 knots. Error: lat .9, lon .1,
5 mb, 10 knots. 

Posted Sunday, Aug. 28: 

12z Sunday Initial: 25.7/87.5, 910 mb, 140 knots. Monday:
29.0/89.3, 910 mb, 140 knots (Note: It can go as low as 895 before landfall,
which is tomorrow before noon. Track should be 15-30 east of MSY, and the major
refinery at Pascagoula is probably going to take a direct hit.
Hurricane-force winds 150 east and 100 west of the center. Mobile Bay will
have major surge, with gusts to 100 miles an hour possible. Hurricane
intensity will be maintained until almost the Tennessee border with major
inland tree damage and flooding. As has been the case all along, I am
continuing to get the point pounded home on the immensity of this storm, not
just in-close power. It is a cross between the size of Betsy and the power of
Camille.); Tuesday: 33/87, 960 mb, 90 knots; Wednesday: 37/84, 980 mb, 45
knots; Thursday: 40/77.5, 990 mb, 30 knots; Friday: 42/70, 990 mb, 35 knots. 

Monday: 29.4/89.6, 920 mb, 125 knots. Error: lat .4, lon .3,
10 mb, 15 knots. 

Actual: 

Thursday: 26.2/79.0, 994 mb, 55 knots; Friday: 25.2/82.0, 984
mb, 70 knots; Saturday: 24.4/84.6, 940 mb, 115 knots; Sunday: 25.7/87.5, 910
mb, 140 knots; Monday: 29.4/89.6, 920 mb, 125 knots. 

Since the storm has made landfall, no additional forecasts
will be made. This area of the post will be left online and errors totaled
with time. The reader can see that even from the get-go, the forecast for a
strong storm was being made, with the first known raising of the bar to
category 5 levels here with the Friday afternoon update that had the westward
extent of the storm to within 10 miles of where it actually got to this
morning. 

Please keep in mind that this system was tracked all the way
across as the shadow of TC 10 and the reason was because of my belief that
this would develop in the end and have an effect on the nation given the
pattern we were going into. Faithful readers probably picked up on that. 

The most amazing thing when you think about it is that it's
not September 29th with the "K" storm after a damaging hurricane
season - it's late August. And the biggest question remains, with the first
target area being hit yet again, will I have the right idea on the shift east
to the East Coast? It will take two or three hits to outdo what has happened
here, and win or lose, we will take them as they come. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

MONDAY MORNING MORSELS. 

1.) Katrina enters the U.S., and the history books, today. The
storm exits New England Thursday. Details on inland effects should be
attained through AccuWeather.com features. These will include record low
August pressures and record high August wind gusts perhaps to the Ohio River,
a surge of tropical air up the East Coast, and a severe weather threat for
the eastern U.S. with the frontal passage. 

7.) My biggest question (and probably the question of
hurricane nuts too) is, does Katrina mean that the ideas for the East Coast
getting it are wrong and it's all Gulf? Time will tell. 

Ciao for now. 

TUESDAY
AFTERNOON 5:00 P.M. 

Katrina continues to go northeastward, and I wish to point out
a couple of things here, weather related. But before I do, I want to say I am
having about as rough a time as I have ever had looking at a weather-related
disaster. I made a comment this morning announcing that I am going to be
working on a new scale for evaluating hurricanes that will take some of the
subjectivity that springs forth out of it, one that is pressure/history
related. Upon making that comment, some email came forth that, like
post-Isabel email, invites commentary. 

The email dealt with the idea that the storm on second
landfall was a category 3. This is because the hurricane center said it had
winds of 125. But if that is true, how are the accounts coming out where it
hit in Mississippi saying that the damage was worse than Camille, that the
storm pushed water back inland farther than Camille? Camille at landfall was
a category 5. 

The problem I have is this. You can't sit there, nor can I,
and look at cloud photos and this and that, and then trust men WHO AREN'T IN
THE STORM to call it perfectly. Andrew, which hit a more populated area, at
921 mb caused a certain amount of damage. The structure damage when the storm
was evaluated forced the hurricane center to up their classification to
category 5. Here is the fact, pure and simple. The storm did the damage that
a storm with first landfall at 918 mb, second at 923 should have done. So the
idea is to rate the storm against what we know, not what we don't know. 

It is hard for me to hold my tongue when I get letters arguing
for the idea that this was a moderate category 3 in Mississippi, unless it
was from a person who was there. Then I have to pay attention. But so far the
few emails I have gotten are from people who say that they know people in
there who have lived there all their lives, who lived there during Camille
and said this was as bad or worse. It may be selective memory, but it sure
was more extensive, and that is something that is used in my way of evaluating
storms...the extent of damage will be related to that pressure. If you have
that pressure and your argument is right about it being what someone 600
miles away says it is, then it has to have a more extensive area of damaging
winds, and that should be used against history. But revisionism and trusting
of what, to me, is valuable, but still theory, against the known, which is
actual history, is, to put it bluntly, a stretch. Experience trumps theory
every time. 

As I watch the situation in New Orleans grow worse, I
understand that should another storm come along, and have the track close to
1947, it may be that the city never recovers fully. I expect it to now, but
it will be a long, tough haul, and in the end, the damage done was the damage
a category 4 moving north 30-40 miles to their east should have done. Perhaps
the situation with the revelers will remind us about what we are dealing with
here. 

Two quick things about Katrina. One, unlike her cousins that
dealt over 90 tornadoes last year, this does not have the kind of mechanism
to cause that. It went up west of the mountains, and though some severe
weather will break out, it is interesting to note that before the big tornado
outbreak with Ivan last year, we had the same ranked risk. This is not the same
beast. Part of the reason is it's not cold anywhere around Katrina. This
makes it concentrate more energy near what's left of its center. And because
it was such a big storm, it's weakening uniformly, or more so than many other
storms do, so the kind of differences needed to force the enhanced shear. In
addition, when the systems go into and east of the mountains, they can drag
drier air into the circulation easier and cause the needed instability from
dry slots for this. That doesn't mean nothing will happen. It does mean that
it's not in the same ball park. 

And the rain, though heavy, is moving through and is not the
kind of wild rain we saw with Ivan and Floyd. Again, the lack of true cool
air to the west means the condensation process is such that the storm is
simply raining itself out, not using temperature differences to squeeze out
every drop of water. Again, it doesn't mean there is not flooding or
impressive rain, it means it's not as bad as it would be if there was a
strong trof with chillier air buckling in, like what could happen down the
road. 

There I go shooting my mouth off again. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

TUESDAY 9:05 A.M.: SOME THOUGHTS ON KATRINA, NOT ALL WEATHER
RELATED. 

Katrina continues northeastward as a record wind producer
along with low pressure into the Tennessee Valley for August, but already
some things about the storm need to be said. 

First of all, the news media and their contribution to the
weather cause cut two ways here, in my opinion. The hype was enough to make
most people who had a lick of sense, or who had the means, get out of the
way. I found myself in prayer over the weekend for the people who could not.
But as long as choice was there, then with what was being said was enough to
scare anyone with any sense. 

However, I have to take issue with some of the pre and post
storm nonsense that was going on about New Orleans. The path of the storm was
never, by anyone I know, forecasted directly over New Orleans. The farthest
west track of TPC was still to the east, and the farthest west track I had,
and the constant message on the TV I was using, was to the mouth of the Pearl
River, and the numbers that are issued speak for that. 

That forecast (and when I say forecast, I mean not only mine,
but TPC) was as good as it gets, theirs from Saturday morning, and mine,
well, you can look at it. There was no "miss" or veering away that
was not forecasted. The numbers are there for the educated to look at, and
the objective to understand. While there was concern it could come farther
west, it was only a concern, not the forecast. But so what if it had? It
still wouldn't have meant what some people were saying on the air in a less
than ideal fashion, that the 160-mph winds were going through downtown New
Orleans. Friction effects would take care of 25% of that right off the bat.
The forecast from this quarter was for gusts to 125 out of the north on the
lake and winds to 100 mph in the city. The acceleration of wind between
buildings, as per Alicia in Houston, was also talked about to blow out
windows that were supposed to withstand that kind of wind. It is hard to say
what peak winds were, since the obs went down. 

But what gets me is that someone makes those comments based on
whatever, then when they don't happen, proceeds to say, well, it veered away.
And I would like to know, when someone says 170 mph winds would hit downtown
New Orleans, what the basis for that is. Such a wind would have to be
occurring on a frictionless surface, and big cities do not meet that
criteria. 

I will tell you what else is bothering me, and it comes maybe
from some pompous moral attitude, but here I go anyway. In some ways, the
action of revellers in the French Quarter, running around, laughing and
having a good time, was repulsive. The least they could have done was check
to see what happened in other places. Instead, there they are, celebrating
like this was a day at the beach. Little did they know the beach was a levy
burst away, and no more than a couple of miles from them were people drilling
holes in roofs to survive? There was an interview with a man who lost his
wife when his house split while they were on the roof. I couldn't take it. It
tore me up. 

Maybe I am just old and cranky, and I am tired right now. 

Now you may say, well, they didn't know, and I guess you have
a point. And there is a natural tendency to celebrate good fortune. But by
the afternoon, the news people reporting that nothing had happened downtown,
that it was no big deal, probably should have done something to let folks
know that only two miles away, people were cutting holes in their roofs to
get out. And such things lead back to my overall theory that the lack of
attention to all the facts in matters simply leads to poor judgment. I guess
one may even say to me, Joe, you don't have all the facts. Well, here is what
I know. The area from Alabama to southeast Louisiana, collectively, just took
its worst hit ever. Perhaps the bright spot of the French Quarter (which, by
the way, I know and I love visiting, and like having a good time in as well)
is that it will fuel the recovery of a town that has taken a beating.
However, the track was never the clear-cut, knock-out blow that a track of
1947 with intensity like this would have. By my wife's count, I brought up
1947 twenty times in a 5-day period on TV, and would have hoped other
meteorologists picked up on that storm too. 

(I guess if she knows about the 1947 storm path in New
Orleans, I better learn what a double release move with some Russian title is
in gymnastics.) 

You know, storms like this tear me in half. Really. I don't
know what the heck to do sometimes; what the proper way to deal with it is. I
am told by many I do not smile enough on camera anymore. Well, I can't smile
when I am serious about things, and if I suspect I have a catastrophe in
front of me, how can I smile? The only thing to do is to try to put out the
best information possible and hope it helps anyone who listens. 

On another note, I have grown so weary of the Saffir-Simpson
Scale that I am developing a completely new scale, which will be revealed in
next year's hurricane forecast. It is an exponential scale based on a storms
relation to HISTORY, not to bouncing wind speeds up and down based on what is
and what is not found. The coup de gras, so to speak, that really said, ok,
you have the idea, do it, even though it means less sleep, came from both my
son Garrett and email, when in the face of a 5 mb drop in pressure to 902 mb,
the "official" wind speed was decreased. My son, who is more
fanatical about such things than I was at his age, monitors everything that
is said (including what I say), and when he asked me how this could happen,
what could I say? In addition, several of you talked about it in email. In
any case, this won't be able to be disputed. But I am letting you know, for a
couple of reasons, one of them proprietary, since it forms the basis for a
public revelation of the idea. 

One more thing - the weakening. It weakened because it was so
strong. Unlike Camille, which was a compact storm, this was so big and strong
that as it drew closer to the coast, it had to get some air that wasn't
perfect into it. My bone of contention is it wasn't the same king of crushing
weakening we saw with Lili, which was due in large part to cool water from
Isadore and the "shadow" left in the atmosphere. And so the storm,
when it's all said and done, where it hit with a frictionless surface,
produced the weather that a top 5 hurricane should have produced. The whole
weakening thing to me was like saying your team was mounting a comeback
because they got a first down in the 4th quarter, even though you are five
touchdowns behind. 

Ok, now that all that is off my chest, later today we can get
back to more rational weather-related posts, though I think the issues raised
here were caused by the weather event, and needed to be addressed. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

TUESDAY MORNING 5:30 A.M.: SEPTEMBER ROLLS ON WHERE AUGUST
LEFT OFF. 

1.) Katrina trof will split, leaving building pressures in the
Northeast and fallen or lower pressures in the Gulf and southwest Atlantic
for the weekend and early next week. 

Ciao for now. 

 

WEDNESDAY MORNING: TYPHOON TO RULE ANEW; THE EASTERN TROF
SPLIT IS IT. 

3.) Last gasp of Katrina finds heat, humidity and severe
weather threat from New England to the Carolinas today. 

Ciao for now. 

 

THURSDAY P.M. : U.S. COASTLINE AGAIN MUST TURN EYES TOWARD THE
TROPICS AS MONSTER NORTHEAST HIGH STRETCHES INTO ATLANTIC FOR "IF YOU
BUILD IT, THEY WILL COME PATTERN; MUCH OF THE NATION DRY AND WARM IN SUCH
CASES. 

I don't have good news next week for coastal areas. I will
keep this short since the pattern overview is tomorrow, and how many times
can we write the same thing? 

First of all, Katrina was so large and so strong, that the
sinking in the wake of the storm did disturb the western Atlantic and gulf
pulse, but not before a major hurricane resulted. Think about this. The
pattern that fed back and allowed Katrina to develop was one in which high
pressure developed strongly over the Northeast and pressures fell across the
Gulf and southwest Atlantic. This, of course, led to a set response across
much of the nation, which we have just gone through, hence the last 7-10 days
of August behaved as discussed, both in the Tropics and across the nation.
Well, why go away from that now? Katrina gets out of the way, the ridges
hook, pressures and heights fall underneath. A big dynamic high builds over
the Northeast, and with the ridge in the western Pacific doing its thing,
it's a sign that next week is a real challenge.  

I will be watching closely to see if the pulse was simply
interrupted in the western Atlantic by the immense scope of Katrina. If, as I
believe, that was the case, then next week will be a very tough week on
coastal forecasters, and I will use the same line I used before all this
started up for Katrina....there shall be great wailing and gnashing of teeth
for coastal meteorologists. 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

THURSDAY MORNING. 

9.) Texas coastal rain is likely over the next 4-7 days.
Katrina-ravaged areas should have most activity over the Gulf, but it's a
day-to-day situation. 

Note: About four years ago, a subscriber and friend of mine
from South Texas asked me if I thought loss of life like Galveston in 1900
was possible in this day and age. I said no because of technology and warning
capabilities. While AccuWeather.com, from Thursday, when Katrina was racing
through South Florida to the Gulf began a public missive to alert folks to
how strong this could be (check writings here and PUBLIC NATIONAL TV STATEMENTS
STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT), and then Friday's path correction and bombardment
on national media and in writings of how strong this would be (words like
catastrophe were starting to be used, and category 4 to 5 storm, strongest in
that part of the Gulf we have ever recorded, all in public) I still would
have thought this kind of death toll could not happen today. Sunday's
statement out of the New Orleans NOAA office on the storm was the most
dramatic I had ever seen from a public weather service official and it was
still well before the storm had closed in. During Saturday, TPC forecasted
intensities began to catch up to ours. Sorry, it's not pompous; one can check
the print and national media (FOX, CNBC and anyone else who wanted to use
us). But the point is, I think the end game here, and that is a 48- to
60-hour period, was one that had plenty of warning, to the point where I
personally was being accused of going way overboard by telling people to
"get out" Friday night and Saturday in the arc from southeast
Louisiana to coastal Alabama. 

Sad to say, despite all that, I may be wrong as to the idea
that a storm today couldn't cause death like 1900. Even sadder to say, if one
can't stop it with this much warning, what happens if something pulls a Labor
Day 1935? 

In addition, there are unofficial reports on recon data of a
234-knot wind at 866 mb as the storm was moving in on the coast. It will be
interesting to see what comes of that. Such a wind would translate to over
200 miles an hour on the surface. 

SUGGESTIONS AS TO SOLUTIONS: 

1.) Any intensifying storm of 950 mb or below that is
forecasted to hit the coast should be seeded round the clock on its approach
once the forecast says it will, and the pressure reaches that level. 

2.) Any intensifying should have wind speeds skewed to what
the historic pressure values give. Eyewall tightening, and sudden wind jumps,
as have been noted and forecasted over the years, should replace the
"work their way down the surface" idea. Intensifying storms and
tightening eyes reaching land will give you what the wind the pressure says
it will. For the record, everyone who reads this column knows how I have
suggested 1 and 2 to a point where they are almost in rant territory. Number
3, though, hit me last night as I watched the troops arrive. 

3.) Government may want to step in, mobilize the National
Guard before the disaster, and supply any and all people who wish to be
evacuated beforehand the means. For instance, an alert to that effect could
have gone out Friday, and when NOAA forecasts ramped up wind speeds Saturday
with a consistent track, the mobilization could have started. Air lifts,
convoys, etc. This, of course, is draconian, but extreme storms demand
extreme measures. After all, the stated mission is to protect life and
property. 

Talk amongst yourselves. 

Ciao for now. 
 

SUNDAY EVENING TROPICAL POST: 

Katrina was not only strong, but enormous. The part of the
Gulf and adjacent Atlantic covered by pressures under 1008 mb was about as
great as I have ever seen. The same setup is developing now, pressures
starting to lower in a large area across the Gulf and southwest Atlantic as
well as the Caribbean. They are not the kind of pressure falls we look at
in the temperate regions, but the large area of lower pressure over such
warm water while pressures rise so much farther north is a known
development signal. 

Ciao for now. 

SUNDAY EVENING TROPICAL POST: 

Katrina was not only strong, but enormous. The part of the
Gulf and adjacent Atlantic covered by pressures under 1008 mb was about as
great as I have ever seen. The same setup is developing now, pressures
starting to lower in a large area across the Gulf and southwest Atlantic as
well as the Caribbean. They are not the kind of pressure falls we look at
in the temperate regions, but the large area of lower pressure over such
warm water while pressures rise so much farther north is a known
development signal. 

Ciao for now. 

SUNDAY EVENING TROPICAL POST: 

Katrina was not only strong, but enormous. The part of the
Gulf and adjacent Atlantic covered by pressures under 1008 mb was about as
great as I have ever seen. The same setup is developing now, pressures
starting to lower in a large area across the Gulf and southwest Atlantic as
well as the Caribbean. They are not the kind of pressure falls we look at
in the temperate regions, but the large area of lower pressure over such
warm water while pressures rise so much farther north is a known
development signal. 

Ciao for now. 

MONDAY
4:15 P.M.: TAKE 'EM AS THEY COME. 

SOME THOUGHTS ON KATRINA: 

Katrina's long, dark shadow that has cast its gloom across the
land may in the end leave a lasting impression that saves lives. For if
people listen to reputable sources for information, they may be less likely
to take the chance of staying when someone they trust is telling them to get
out. Another aspect, and something I actually am praying for, is that TPC
factors more in the pressure as a way of determining wind. Suppose, for
instance, on Saturday morning, the reported wind of 115 was changed to a
compromise between whatever it is they thought it was and the Saffir-Simpson
pressure based wind. At 938 mb, we have seen them report winds to 150 with
storms, but suppose they decided, ok, it's deepening, maybe some of these
other people have a point (it's not like it did not just happen to them in
their own back yard with the first hit in Florida. Only ramping it up 60 mph
with a tightening eye on 990 to be was an attempt to smooth out and verify
the intensification forecast) about using what has proved reliable for years.
Suppose you heard the storm was up to 125 or 130, which is what the
pressure/wind distribution had given for the last ten storms they had under
950 as an average...we aren't even talking the 938, just the 950, then people
would be alarmed even more. This really is a sore point with me. The
situation with Claudette should have set off the alarm bells, but it hit very
few people and got swept under the rug. As far as people labeling this
criticism, well fine, it is simply driving home my point...AND THEIRS, SINCE
THEIR MISSION IS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY, NOT VERIFY POINT FORECASTS. 

You know, sometimes we are a little too smart for our own
good. We get all these fancy models, all these new instruments, all these things,
and yet it's like the guy who walks into the gym and thinks the new machine
will take five inches off his waist if he works out three days a week.
Without doing what is proven to be right, not just theory, you set yourself
up for being wrong. Let's put it this way, there is nothing wrong with using
what has worked before, even if it's not fancy and new. 

But in the end, I think if five different reputable
forecasters are out there giving their opinions, and one or two of them are
saying get out, people will be more likely to be safe rather than sorry. It's
not causing confusion - it's called saving lives. 

The other thing to think about is that IT COULD HAVE BEEN
WORSE. The death toll here is going to be unimaginable in this day and age,
but look, I am going to go right to the headline on the Friday afternoon
post, which was 60 hours before landfall, when the track was taken to 89.5
here which was 40 east of New Orleans: 

FRIDAY 4:00 P.M. MAJOR EMERGENCY POST: KATRINA THREATENING TO
BECOME CATASTROPHE. 

NEW POSITIONS TO REPLACE THIS MORNING (all positions 7:00 a.m.
CDT) 

SATURDAY: 25.5, 85.5, 960 MB, 105 KTS. 

SUNDAY: 27.0, 88.0, 940 MB, 125 KTS. 

MONDAY: 28.5, 89.5, 920 MB, 135 KTS 

Even from the early morning forecast, the one that had the
position too far east, here is a quote: 

I LEAVE WITH THIS FOR NOW. THIS IS A POTENTIAL CATASTROPHE IN
THE MAKING, AND FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, PLANS SHOULD BE MADE
TO TAKE ACTION IF CALLED UPON TO DO SO. The only "saving grace" is
there will be time to prepare. It's moving slow. The downside is that with
the pattern the way it is, the storm could be one of the top Gulf hurricane
hits in modern times... 

But these were FRIDAY, FRIDAY. The intensity equation was no
secret here and was fully way in front of TPC and the track, up until late in
the day was in agreement then was 100 mile farther west. 

All this is being said here now because an AP article
yesterday on this implied that TPC knew it all along. That seems to be very
misleading to me. The article quoted the director of the hurricane center as
saying he called the mayor of New Orleans SATURDAY NIGHT, not Friday
afternoon, and by Friday afternoon it's obvious some people in the private
sector had already said how bad this would be. Now don't get me wrong, that
is still a good thing he did, but it wasn't like it was Thursday or Friday.
One can go back and look at the intensity forecasts on those days. Also, IT
SHOWS THE VALUE OF SECOND AND THIRD VOICES IN A FREE SOCIETY! Suppose there
are people who listened to our cries, be it in the column or on CNBC or FOX,
and did get out. Did we not help out? 

In any case, think of this. Suppose it was category one 24
hours before, and deepened to a category 5, hitting on the 1947 track? The
loss of life would be beyond belief. 

One can see the need for other voices here, especially voices
that will work 20-hour days, not over just one storm, but for the whole
weather pattern, and who do more than look at models. 

Remember that back in the 70s, Bill Gray was preaching about
this time we are in now, saying it was coming. 

I am hoping that this will convince people that THEY HAVE A
RESPONSIBILITY to listen, too. One thing I tried to get across on a lot of
the TV outlets was we were the people that two nights beforehand indicated
New Orleans was not going to be seriously impacted by Ivan, so that when I
was saying get out with Katrina, people would think well, maybe the guy is
serious, because he is really scared of this storm. 

I have mixed emotions about saying all this. It's not
hindsighting, it's all there. I don't think TPC did a bad job at all, not as
stellar as Dennis, which was just out of this world, but still a good job as
nailing a hit like this two days away is a good forecast. But there are
things they did not say that were being said in other circles that proved
very valuable, and again, it's not just me or AccuWeather.com. But my big
beef is coming down to my old pet peeve of throwing away a known for things
that are new. One builds off the old, not trashes it. There is no substitute
for experience. 

A previous post outlines my three main points of the whole
thing and I want to reinforce it. One has to do with my idea of seeding
storms this strong from 24-36 hours out. The other, the pressure being used
as a determinant for the wind. The third, government assistance BEFOREHAND in
evacuations. As I said from Saturday, the TPC forecast, if one wished to use
that, would have made me think the wheels could have started if there was
coordination, to at least give the option to people who could not get out. 

After all, with all three ideas, what do we have to lose? 

Ciao for now. 

********** 

IMPORTANT: GFDL NEW ORLEANS DISASTER ON FLORIDA SYSTEM INVEST
IS NOT ACCEPTED AT THIS TIME AS I BELIEVE THAT SYSTEM MILLS AROUND ALL WEEK.
This is so no hysteria and panic develop. While one cannot throw something
like that out in this pattern altogether down the road, we are not 102 hours
away from a category 3 slamming ala 1947. 

Ciao for now.