Hurricane Katrina at 10: 38below Blog Entries
As many of you know, I started the first weather blog at AccuWeather.com on the same day Hurricane Katrina formed in 2005. As a result, I am live-tweeting a timeline of my blog entries during the next two weeks.
All My Hurricane Katrina at 10 Blogs:
What you may not know is that, before my blog went online, AccuWeather.com had "The Redesign Blog" which later moved to the "38below" name. It was written by Carl Schaad, who used to sit next to me at AccuWeather. 38below also blogged about Hurricane Katrina, but when the blog went offline in 2006, the entries did too -- until now. I'm bringing them back because I think Carl had some important commentary on the storm.
What follows, for the first time in 10 years, is a complete timeline of the 38below blog entries about Hurricane Katrina, as they happened, from August 22 to September 7 (plus an entry from Nov. 15th). Not all info was still retrievable; titles and images are added where possible. Most links were dead, and have not been transferred. Inside jokes were removed for brevity (sorry, Carl).
38 BELOW BLOG:
There's some excitement brewing here at AccuWeather about a possible hit from a regurgitated TD 10 on Florida this week. (Sorry, hope you weren't eating while reading that.) Stay tuned to AccuWeather.com and wrap up those tropical weather plans.
As of this blogging one of our headlines is on the possible (re)(re)(re) development of TD 10 on its way to Florida, as alluded to in the previous blog entry. Click here to read the story, if it's not updated yet.
Steve Penstone, resident news director, has lept into action and is headed to Miami to cover Katrina. Incidentally, one of our on-air metorologists is Katrina Voss, so needless to say there's a bit of chortling going on here. But as residents of Florida are all too aware, these things can be very dangerous and are no laughing matter.
Steve's "departure" video, shot in the office today, can be found here. The current anticipated track of Katrina (the storm) can be found here. Everyone in the path should prepare. These things can create a great deal of rain even after they've moved far inland.
We tried to locate [Steve Penstone] on Google maps but there are something like 14,000 Home Depots in the Fort Lauderdale area apparently. As Action mentions on the video, rainfall will likely be the big story.
A hearty welcome aboard to compatriot Jesse Ferrell as he debuts his blog. You can find it here. Stop by, drop him a note and say "Howdy!"
Now, I'm no meteorologist (I just play one on the web) but the latest run of the models are quite fascinating:
Fascinating Latest Run of the Models
Almost all of the models are trending further west after Katrina hits the Gulf, which would be Very Bad (VB) since the longer it spends in the warm gulf waters the worse it's going to be for whoever draws the short straw and has to deal with landfall. Stay tuned to AccuWeather.com and your various media outlets and make sure those weather plans are concluded.
Katrina has moved across Florida cutting power to over a million people. Her movement turned southwest and now she's in the Gulf again, gaining strength. Joe Bastardi thinks it's possible she hits Cat 3 before coming on shore again, and then moves northeast to spread rain and mayhem. Everyone in the potential path of the storm should stay tuned.
Joe Bastardi was just on CNBC and clearly outlined a New Orleans hit. I think he's the first meteorologist to move the storm that far west, but the models are doing the same. Take a look at Jesse's blog for more info on this.
Joe Bastardi also said that he thinks this could be a cat 4 or a cat 5 - and the strongest hit there since Camille. Hyperbole? I don't know - everyone stay tuned and make your preparations. And if your gas tank is running low you might as well fill up now before oil breaks the $70 a barrel mark and gas jumps 10-15 cents. Sigh.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. oil output in the Gulf was unaffected by the storm today, according to a Minerals Management Service report. Katrina is heading for the Florida panhandle, missing the bulk of offshore platforms, which are located off the Louisiana and Texas coasts. Last year prices surged after Hurricane Ivan destroyed platforms and closed refineries in the Gulf.
"Not every hurricane is an Andrew or an Ivan,'' said Bill O'Grady, assistant director of market analysis at A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis. "The prospect of it becoming an incredibly destructive storm was being built into the price. This doesn't look like it will be another Ivan even if it strengthens."
File this under "Let's see if this is actually what happens." If Joe Bastardi is right, Katrina is headed right for the Louisiana platforms.
Action Penstone and Vern have jumped out of the proverbial frying pan and are headed post haste to the (proverbial) fire - the Gulf Coast. It sounds like the crew is headed to Biloxi, MS. I've had a little fun with the team and their reports but certainly our thoughts and prayers are with Team WHAT, as well as all of the folks in the targeted area. This is the first year AccuWeather has been bringing you live reports from storm landfall areas, and Steve Penstone and crew have done a phenomenal job.
And speaking of targeted areas, here's the latest on Katrina's track:
I think Joe Bastardi was one of the first to come out with the New Orleans hit, although this blog had the model shot out a little earlier showing the westward trend in track. Thank you AccuWeather.com Professional!
Hopefully no one in New Orleans is sitting at home reading this blog; certainly this is not the kind of storm to take any changes with. Our News Page continues to provide a host of graphics and articles on the storm; just scroll down to "Today's Weather Headlines" and read through the whole list.
"Category five at landfall." Those are four words you never hope to hear when you work at a weather forecasting company. As everyone has already heard Katrina hit cat 5 with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts at an unbelievable 210 mph. 175 is a strong category five storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. To put it another way, 175 mph is equivalent to a strong F3 tornado on the Fujita Scale and 210 mph an F4. But Katrina is a whole lot bigger than your typical tornado. Anyone in any of the targeted areas needs to get out now, and hopefully you've already left. Those unable to leave should find appropriate shelters.
Here's how the NWS put it out of their office in New Orleans:
DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED
HURRICANE KATRINAA MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. ATLEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.
It would go without saying then that the impact on oil will be tremendous as well. Reuters has a story courtesy CNN that says oil production has been cut by a third. It remains to be seen what the entire impact may be.
Current animated satellite of Katrina. When you see the eye that large, distinct and perfectly round you know you have a well-oiled meteorological machine:
Katrina hit this morning as a category 3 and continues to crawl north dumping huge amounts of rain. Below is a three hour precip total snap:
AP via MSNBC is reporting that Katrina could leave a million homeless and is warning of "incredible environmental disaster of biblical proportions."
The "refuge of last resort", the Superdome in New Orleans, has sustained some roof damage and is leaking, Ed Reams of CNN affiliate WDSU reported this morning. The Superdome took in approximately 10,000 people in what most observers agreed was an amazingly orderly process. Hopefully the damage to the Superdome is (and will be) largely cosmetic.
Superdome, refuge to thousands, holds out in Hurricane Katrina Source: AP
Great PDF infographic on the Lake Pontchartrain problem from NOLA.com. PDF file here; image below. This illustrates why an east-of-the-lake track of a powerful hurricane is extremely bad news for New Orleans.
NOLA.com infographic on Lake Pontchartrain
Boston Globe has another good graphic showing the main issue with New Orleans - it sits below sea level between the Mississippi and Lake Pontchartrain with levees holding back the water. If either (or both) systems collapse the water has no where to go but New Oleans.
UPDATE: NWS issues a bulletin reporting a levee breach: Bulletin here
Update on the roof courtesy TheJacksonChannel.com. Story here. They're reporting two holes in the roof and water pouring in. Power is out, backup generators are working but they can't power the AC. Current temp is 75°.
The graphic below shows where Katrina is headed and who should be making preparations for her arrival. Folks in Kentucky, for example, may not be accustomed to preparing for a tropical storm but Katrina is a monster likely to drop huge amounts of rain well into the interior U.S.
Our own inimitable Elliot Abrams recorded this podcast for 1010wins on Katrina. Have a listen..
Oil touches $70.80 a barrel. More here.
"WGNO reporter Susan Roesgen, who is with the mayor at the Hyatt hotel, said New Orleans police had received more than 100 calls about people in the area trapped on their roofs."
Via a CNN article; the aforementioned mayor being New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin. (You really have to feel for him, what a huge set of challenges he faces.) It seems you inevitably hear these stories about people who either didn't evacuate or didn't go to a shelter and then at some point require assistance. I know some people don't have vehicles and rely on public transportation - so evacuating a city becomes extremely difficult. But it seems to me that New Orleans has done a tremendous job of making shelters available and getting people inside in a fairly orderly fashion. Hopefully these people who chose to sit through the storm will be safe.
The 2005 Hurricane season continues to make and break records. Early estimates from Katrina's onslaught could be as high as $26 billion (with a big B) compared to Andrew's $21 billion (also with a big B). As a total aside it's amazing how we talk nonchalantly about "billions" when it's really hard to fathom a billion of anything. I think a billion YooHoos would stretch to Alpha Centauri and back or something.
I think that cost estimate is an insurance payout figure. It doesn't come close to estimating the total cost, not only in lives of course, but also all of the economic ripples that it creates, from high energy costs to emotional damage, jobs lost, etc. It's just too big to wrap your mind around. Well, at least my mind, which isn't terribly elastic.
More on Katrina here. Among the tidbits in that Reuters article is this:
"At least two oil rigs were adrift in the Gulf of Mexico"
It's hard to picture an oil rig actually adrift. Once I was at the beach and I had one of those inflatable duck things and I left it near the shoreline and a wave came in and took it out to sea. It was technically adrift then, I guess, and well if you found it (it was yellow) that's cool you can keep it. Anyway that was easy to picture being adrift especially since I saw it that way. But an oil rig? Wow.
Mayor Ray Nagin reported that 80% of his city is flooded, with some parts under 20 feet of water. There are horrific reports of bodies just floating in the water. Everyone's fear was realized when a Lake Pontchartrain levee was breached and water poured into the city.
Biloxi was also hammered. There's a tragic account of a man's wife being ripped from his grasp during the storm. Just like picturing a "billion" it's really difficult to imagine the human toll.
CNN has an article here. MSNBC's take here. Casualty figures are likely to rise all day, but 80 are feared dead in Mississippi alone.
AccuWeather has a long standing relationship with Americares, and organization that gives 100% of any donation towards relief efforts. You can find their site here, their message about Katrina here, and the donation page here. You can also check the Network for Good here. If you are blessed enough to find yourself not in the ravaged southeast this morning please take a moment and consider how you could help.
I was curious about river levels and whether or not Katrina, heading into the Ohio Valley, would cause additional trouble from swelling the Ohio which feeds into the Mississippi. While it won't cause a serious issue it certainly won't help; any additional water will just delay things from returning to normal.
I discussed the possibility with Elliot this morning, who explained that a smaller river (in this case the Ohio) would have to be massively flooded to create an additional flooding "punch". Katrina should be moving fast enough that there won't be massive rainfall of that order.
Speaking of Elliot, another great podcast will be availablehere later in the day. Stay tuned!
And now in the "Holy Consumerism Batman" category comes this entry: Wal-Mart spokesperson Sharon Weber announced that Wal-Mart had to close 123 stores, primarily because of power outages, due to Katrina. 123 stores! Maybe it's just me, but there's something weird about having so many stores that you actually have to close 123 of them due to a hurricane, and that's only 3.3 percent of the total. More here.
With all of the wall-to-wall coverage of Katrina there's a risk that people will become numb, feel that it's too much, or even develop a nonchalant "it happened over there" attitude. I've worked at AccuWeather for some time now, and have heard the criticism before that we (the weather industry and, to a lesser extent, the government) make too much of these events. "Hype!" is the epithet of choice, hurled like some sort of curse.
Obviously I don't see it quite that way. Already we're hearing stories of people who were in harm's way and for whatever reason (will we ever really know?) choose not to evacuate or leave the area. Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco has described rescues being conducted by boat - gathering people stranded on rooftops (over 200 now), sawing through roofs to get to people trapped in attics, and even picking up people swimming towards the rescue boats. The head of homeland security for New Orleans said, in the context of the wisdom of evacuation, that dying is a "hard way to learn a lesson."
Those of us in the weather industry work hard - particularly during events like this - to provide as much advance notice of severe weather events as possible. But we also ring the bell every time there's a risk to life and property, and we will continue to do so until everyone heeds the message. Even one life lost is an enormous tragedy.
Okay, we now return this soapbox to it's owner.
I didn't see it, but apparently Jeanne Meserve of CNN called in to Aaron Brown and filed a report that was just devastating to hear. I'm looking for video - if you know where I can find it email me - but the transcript it grim enough. I think I'll be taking a break after this entry; I'm starting to bum myself out. But if you're made of stern stuff this will give you an idea of what's going on. Transcript at CNN via TVNewser. For Jeanne's comments scroll down or do a find for "MESERVE" and you'll jump down to her piece.
We should actually put that in the forecast for New Orleans. Below is a snap from the 15-Day forecast for New Orleans:
With the RealFeel over 100 degrees it's just going to add to the misery. You can check the New Orleans forecast here.
The remnants of Katrina continue to dump rain as she moves northward.
Jesse, who sits behind me and runs the new community blog and is also in charge of Premium, Professional, WeatherMatrix, (cool name!) and the Secret Weather Beacon that we use to summon all of the super heroes to the Hall of Justice, posted a pic on his blog showing the jump in gas. Fortunately, Jesse gets his gas at the other end of town, as the station down the road had this on their sign:
They're no doubt hiring because they're going to need someone full-time just to change the numbers on the sign. How's gas in your neck of the woods? Snap a pic with your camera or phone and send it in. I'll post the most depressing here, or give them to Jesse.
Stories are already circulating about looting occurring in New Orleans. The AP filed this story - I'm not sure which part grieves me more; the child who stood watch and sounded the alarm when the police arrived, or the rationale that a store being looted as "everybody's store."
Filed under Stop the Planet I Want To Get Off.
Federal officials said Monday that people wanting to help victims of Hurricane Katrina should not travel to the affected areas unless directed to by an agency. Instead, Michael Brown, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, urged people to contribute money to organizations. FEMA listed the following agencies as needing monetary donations to assist hurricane victims:
• American Red Cross, (800) HELP NOW [435-7669] English, (800) 257-7575 Spanish • Adventist Community Services, (800) 381-7171 • Christian Reformed World Relief Committee, (800) 848-5818 • Church World Service, (800) 297-1516 • Convoy of Hope, (417) 823-8998 • Mennonite Disaster Service, (717) 859-2210 • Salvation Army, (800) SAL-ARMY [725-2769] • United Methodist Committee on Relief, (800) 554-8583
Source: AP
TVNewser has posted audio of the aforementioned Jeanne Meserve interview. You can find it here. Very moving.
We received this email which I obtained permission to share. I'm posting it here not so much as a huge AccuWeather attaboy, but because I think the message - that warnings by the weather industry and emergency personnel to evacuate - need to be heeded, as Katrina has sadly demonstrated.
"Joe I have read you for the last four years. I pay 14.95 a month just to read your articles. You were a lifesaver for my family. My father in law lives in Gulfport, MS. He lives about a block from the beach. I read your article told him to get the heck out of dodge and he did. He has evacuated at least four times in the last year. We didn't know if he would this time. We called him 6:30 am Sunday morning told him what could happen and he got on the road to Memphis. He is alive because of people like you. Thanks so much. By the way Camille did not reach his yard, but Katrina did and most likely covered his house. He is just getting bits and pieces now but from the accounts of some of his friends that stayed down there,,things that survived Camille did not survive Katrina. If this thing lost power as the TPC said it forgot to tell her (Katrina). As evidence shows this was more powerful then Camille. Many of the shelters were destroyed that were shelters in Camille. Anyway thanks so much, Angi"
Until the vacation, that is. If I can pause for a personal note in the midst of all of this Katrina news. I was sharing with someone who wrote in through the blog that I wasn't really prepared for how tough writing about something like Katrina is. There's very little good news, and in many instances the worst case scenario has happened, even though Katrina took a slight jog to the east and supposedly weakened at landfall. (I say supposedly only because the damage we're seeing seems to me to be more indicative of a cat 5 than a 4 or 3; very comparable to Andrew in 92, and we know that Andrew was eventually upgraded to a 5.)
I've seen a few articles circulating that Katrina may be retired as a storm name. I would hope that's a foregone conclusion. Generally the way it works is the nation affected by the storm petitions the World Meteorological Association (I bet you never knew there was such a thing! They meet at the Hall of Justice on alternate Thursdays, I think) to have the name retired. The reason being that names are generally recycled every six years. When a storm as devastating as Katrina occurs, the name is usually retired so that we're not talking about another hurricane Katrina six years later, which would just create a lot of confusion. A list of past storms that have been retired can be found here.
Katrina is no longer a storm (And good riddance.) Katrina makes her way north; there may be the threat of severe weather later today. A the moment, the National Weather Service has issued mostly flash flood watches.
I'll post an update later on the severe weather situation.
Kudos to the AccuWeather.com news team on their successful coverage of the storm. Little did we know when they boarded their flight that the storm was going to be historically devastating. They deserve congrats for handling it professionally. I spoke with Steve earlier and it sounds like they have stories, photos and enough b-roll to make it to the moon and back, so I'm sure we'll be seeing more of their tale in the coming days.
Steve has updated his blog today, take a look.
Or for that matter, will it be inhabitable? Forecasters from the NHC and AccuWeather (and other outlets, I'm sure) we're predicting the worst for New Orleans. The dire warnings involved three factors: the storm surge, the amount of rain, and the levee system holding back the Mississippi and Lake Pontchartrain. Ultimately the levees didn't hold and water has rushed into the city. Now Gov. Kathleen Blanco has ordered an evacuation of the city. Where do you put a million people? Some estimates say the city will be uninhabitable for months.
I spent a good bit of time (too much, really) reading about the situation last night and was struck by several debates about the looting. Generally people fall into two camps: the "It's okay to loot as long as you're feeding your family" camp and the "Looting is lawlessness" camp. Where ever you fall - and I won't even try to get into that - it's obvious that it's causing massive problems. The police, who are already spread thin trying to help people, are clearly incapable of stopping any sort of wide spread looting. And even devoting resources to stopping the looting could cost lives as it delays rescue efforts. Gov. Blanco has said as much, and it's clear that the first priority is to help locate any survivors.
The other thing that struck me while I was online last night is the sense of community demonstrated by many online groups. Fark.com had at least one thread, even before Katrina hit, wherein members offered sanctuary to people evacuating New Orleans but with no place to go. Craigslist has turned their New Orleans site into a clearinghouse for aid and info on the missing. People all across the web are contributing in ways big and small. Flickr members have started posting photos relating to Katrina and the top blog search on Technorati is "Katrina". Not only has the web made more information available, but I think it's given people a way to contribute and help that hasn't really existed before. And that's really powerful.
If you're like me you are a visual person and need to see maps of these things. You're also a little weird, in a not so bad sorta way. In any event, the New York Times has an excellent interactive map. You can find it here: http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/national/2005_HURRICANEKATRINA_GRAPHIC/index.html
The temperature has already hit 82° but the Realfeel is 95°. Just awful, on top of everything else. It appears that aside from a chance of thunderstorms today it will be pretty rain-free for the coming days. Here's the first few days:
Type written or spoken. Things continue to deteriorate in New Orleans. Apparently a military helicopter, trying to land at the Superdome, came under fire and had to withdraw. Meanwhile people are dying at the Superdome, although it's not immediately clear if it's disease, stress, heat, or something else. Where do 10,000 people go to the bathroom? Even basic issues are now huge problems.
We've put an Americares ad on our home page - please consider donating, if not to Americares then to any one of a number of organizations. The American Red Cross is another good organization.
It seems like a catastrophe manages to simultaneously bring out the best in humanity (and the stories of heroics will be told, in time, as they were with 9|11) and the worst in humanity. We've seen the lawlessness in New Orleans; shooting at rescue personnel, hospital staff, looting businesses. We're heard tales of murder and rape - even at the Superdome. Not comes a story about Internet Scamming.
Rogue websites, appearing to be Katrina aid sites, have been springing up with the hopes (apparently) of cashing in on the tragedy and people's generosity. ZDNet story here. Please don't let this discourage your desire to help; make sure that you know where the money you donate is going to - as discussed here, the Red Cross and Americares are two great organizations.
The AP is reporting that heating costs may increase 23 percent this winter in certain areas based on the price of natural gas and the damage Katrina has wrought. NOW is the time to prepare for winter if you're not in the southeast simply trying to survive and put the pieces back together. AccuWeather.com's long range look at winter has it appreciably colder in the northeast based on the hurricane season so far and analogging to previous years with similar weather. Joe Bastardi has done a great bit of research and work on this. The AP article mentions the basics - look at locking in heating prices, enroll in a budgeted billing program, apply for assistance if need be, and look now at how you can conserve (even simple ideas such as weather stripping, or a thermostat that better regulates day and night temperatures.) Hopefully one of the lessons of Katrina is that preparation for the weather isn't something better left to "tomorrow."
Zoomable satellite view of New Orleans post flood. Flash-based, amazing stuff. You can click on the button called "View Labelled Map" for alternate views, showing flooded areas and the levee break.
AP Zoomable Map - pictured: Superdome
An email from a reader; I think we're all heart broken about what's happened. If you have a story to share, however long or brief, feel free to email me. Good news especially appreciated.
"On August 3, 1970 I was going to work with my father at a car dealership in Corpus Christi, Texas. We knew a storm was in the the Gulf of Mexico but had heard the previous night that it was nothing to worry about, just a small storm.
At about 9:00am the owner of the dealership announced that the storm had strengthened and was heading straight for the city.
We worked till noon moving cars into the fenced area and headed home. For the next several hours I saw two seperate tornados destroy the two homes behind our house. I saw a 16 foot 2x6 go flying through a brick home (missing all the people inside). The roof ripped off our house. Rainwater flowing out the light fixtures.
Later walking the neighborhood checking on friends, we saw that at one house nothing was left but the shower stall where the mother and daughter had hidden durning the storm. Another house the upper story was twisted 90 degrees. (They remodeled moving the staircase, plumbing and electric).
We had no electricity or running water for several weeks there after. People were bar-b-queing meat all that time. Our block pooled food together for communal meals.
And God forbid someone-anyone had tried to steal something, then I would have witnessed my first lynching.
Having been to New Orleans and the Gulfport-Biloxi area several times to enjoy the casino's and just the friendliness of the people I find it heartbreaking to see the images on the tv.
I pray for them and have already sent my check to the Red Cross."
I've been trying to stay away from the political aspects of the Katrina story, but that's becoming increasingly difficult. You can see the lines being drawn in the sand now.
New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin (who may just have the worst job in America at the moment) blasted the Federal response to the situation. FEMA said Thursday that the victims bear some responsibility for failing to evacuate. Anderson Cooper, CNN anchor, interviewed Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and essentially expressed his (and many others) disbelief at what is going on (video courtesy Crooks and Liars). And if you saw Katie Couric this morning, she came close to blaming FEMA for the disaster. Or maybe we can blame Jean-Baptiste for founding the city five feet below sea level in 1718. And of course, there are those who are saying Mr. Global Warming is to blame, which ultimately means everyone driving an SUV and/or the Bush Presidency is to blame. Break into small groups and discuss amongst yourselves.
Of course, none of this is particularly helpful, but it's all part of the process. I for one will be relieved, in a way, when politicians are going at it in earnest, because that will (hopefully) mean that the rescue and recovery phase is concluded. Everyone's first priority should be the folks who need help in the devastated areas.
What do you think?
Hats off to Katrina Blankenship, a self described "WEB DEZINER" who years ago registered her first name as a domain name, and Katrina.com was born. Since the disaster, Katrina's domain has obviously attracted a great deal of attention - and she's responded wonderfully by turning her site into a Katrina info and aid center. Awesome work.
And there will likely be a next time. In fact, another hurricane this year is almost a lock, although it remains to be seen if it hits the U.S. mainland, and if so, whether it's a highly populated area. But we may not see a hit like Katrina for some time. Katrina was a huge storm and it hit a populated area that was below sea level and stuck between a river and a lake. In fact, if you were going to purposefully design a city that was highly vulnerable to a hurricane, it's hard to imagine selecting any other location besides New Orleans. (There have been models run and discussions about a hit on Long Island; statistically they are overdue and if a storm hit at the right angle we could see similar devastation.)
So what are the nation's coastal mayors and governors doing? Besides responding to the crisis in New Orleans and the region they are (hopefully) taking a good, long look at their own emergency response plans. I fear that the next storm that bears down on a large city could create widespread panic. I actually had this discussion at work with some folks who disagreed - and I hope they're right - but with images of a city underwater, looting and lawlessness and, frankly, people trapped and dying playing 24/7 on cable it's hard for me to imagine anyone NOT wanting to flee their city if a storm was approaching. Will the next city's mayor and the next state's governor be ready?
I did some research on evacuations for storms - usually they are voluntary in nature. The evacuation of New Orleans was mandatory (why didn't everyone leave? some simply did not have the means and the local government apparently failed to collect them) which makes it somewhat unusual. We all know that a cat 4 or 5 bearing down on New Orleans is the doomsday scenario, so perhaps that's what resulted in the mandatory order. But then I found this reference on NOLA.com (who hopefully will win a handful of pulitzers next time around) about the evacuation. In the article, Gov. Kathleen Blanco said President Bush called and personally appealed for a mandatory evacuation for the low-lying city. I found that remarkable for two reasons: 1. I don't recall hearing or noticing that at the time and 2. I didn't think he was involved that early in the process. Would it have happened if the president had not gotten involved? That's impossible to say. But I really do worry about the next event. Everyone is hyper-sensitive to tropical weather at the moment, but after what we saw this week I'm not very confident in our ability to handle large scale, severe situations.
There are at least two significant fires burning in New Orleans; one in an industrial stretch on the riverfront and another at a mall called The Shops at Canal Place. The latter, at least, apparently started under "suspicious circumstances" and firefighters have given up because they don't have the water and water pressure to fight blaze. I'm not sure what "suspicious circumstances" could mean, although I can guess - but why would anyone want to burn down a mall? That just seems heartless. Can you imagine behind a shop manager, having lost your home and everything, and then finding out your mall is on fire? Why would a community prey upon itself? Unbelievable.
The mall has a website here. Google has incorporated a view of New Orleans post flooding in their Maps product. To see the mall in question go here.(Note the red "Katrina" button in the upper right hand corner to toggle between other views and the post Katrina flood view.) CNN coverage of the fires here, which includes links to video.
Someone is apparently auctioning off a donut for Katrina relief. I don't know much of the background, beyond what the auction itself says. (Click here for the $6,000 donut. Now, I ask you, where is Golden Palace when you need them?)
UPDATE: Looks like the final bid came in at $5,200. A bargain, after all. (Certainly for a good cause.)
And now, filed under "You Have Got To Be Freaking Kidding Me" (incidentally a large folder getting larger each day) comes this simply unbelievable quote from Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff. (Also incidentally, I'm not trying to take a position on this politically one way or another; there's unfortunately a large weather/politics overlap here because if we don't learn from history we're doomed to repeat it. I echo Jesse's sentiments who may or may not be echoing my sentiments in which case this might one of those situations where you put a mirror in front of a mirror and they stretch off into infinity or at least into "really tiny mirrors" which when I stop to think about it simply blows my mind. How is that even possible? But I digress.)
Chertoff said, and I am not making this up and neither, apparently, is CNN:
"That 'perfect storm' of a combination of catastrophes exceeded the foresight of the planners, and maybe anybody's foresight," Chertoff said. He called the disaster "breathtaking in its surprise."
Well, you can see that Jesse linked to at least one paper on the subject. I've worked at AccuWeather for 16 years and every hurricane season as far back as I can remember there has always been worry about the "big one" and New Orleans. Are we to be believe that this was a surprise to no one except the government?
In the interest of, well, my faith in humanity I hope this was misquoted, taken out of context, or mangled in its translation from martian.
In the midst of my aforementioned painting project I found myself at Lowe's where I ran into Steve Penstone - who is, of course, Action Penstone's Alter Ego. (Don't tell anyone, or Action's enemies will strike at him through his loved ones, as Super Villains are wont to do.) This reminded me of Action's Katrina videos, and one in particular where he was standing in front of a Home Depot but his head covered up the E and DE perfectly so that it appeared he was in fact standing in front of Hom Pot.
I blogged about this of course - who can pass up that sort of thing? - and Action and Vern got a chuckle on the road. But then they did me one better, and found two additional Hom Pots during their evacuation - and captured these stills to prove it.
I've tried to find some information on damage and casualty estimates for Katrina, and some context for any numbers I could come up with. In terms of economic impact, Lloyd's of London says $60 Billion (with a B), while Reuters has an article that says losses could top $100 Billion (with a B).
More importantly though, the toll in human lives is still only being hinted at by officials, largely because no one knows as search and rescue operations are still focused on the survivors. The New Orleans Mayor stated he thought that up to 10,000 may have perished, but the number of people estimated to have stayed behind in the city are many times that. This is hauntingly familiar to the great tsunami - where the death toll seemed to climb week after week. I pray that doesn't happen again.
While researching weather fatalities, I came across this graphic:
[N/A]Weather Fatalities Source: NOAA
This is a 30-year average, and it runs through 2004. You can see the average number of hurricane deaths is 15 over the entire 30 years, 21 if you just look at the last 10 years. I could digress into the hurricane cycle theory of Dr. Gray, or lapse into a global warming discussion, but I'll save that debate for later. One thing I did see here that I hadn't really considered is that heat, far and away, seems to be the big weather problem (for the last 10 years at least). And it's unclear without some digging where hurricane stops and flood begins. (i.e. Is storm surge a flooding, or a hurricane, related death?)
My next stop was this Forbes article. There's an interesting popup slideshow link at the end of the article, although after going through the whole slideshow it ended with the "popular slideshows" list and the first five links were "expensive homes" which, in light of the content of the slideshow seemed misplaced at best. (I'll cut Forbes a break here and point out that they don't determine what the most popular slideshows are, but maybe in this case they could put something different at the end.)
Finally I came to this list of natural disasters on Wikipedia. I can't even imagine a flood killing 3.7 million people after watching what Katrina has done to an estimated (at the moment) 10,000. If you look at the Wikipedia list, Katrina could be placed somewhere around #13 amongst the hurricanes/cyclones. Hopefully it doesn't go any higher.
This is a heartwarming story, http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002474595_katlove06.html and good news has been harder to come by than the bad. If you're prone to cry at these sorts of things you were warned! I'd say I got misty-eyed but then the guys at work would beat me up and take my vending machine money.
Time Magazine is apparently considering naming Katrina as their person of the year. This would be ironic because, well, Katrina isn't a person. It's more of a, um, storm. Actually, the suggestion is to include Katrina by naming Mother Nature as the Person of the Year, and I suppose that Mother Nature is more of a person than Katrina. Although perhaps that's a stretch. I suppose Time can name anything it wants to name as it's Person of the Year. I personally would vote for the Japanese Mafia, since they were the ones responsible for Katrina. Or, Scott Stevens, since he unmasked the whole ruse. But Katrina? What do you guys think of naming a storm (or Ma Nature) as Person of the Year?
Could it happen?
It will come as no surprise to long-time blog readers that none other than Anderson Cooper was on the selection committee to pick a "winner" and has backed the Katrina idea. This would make the nomination "Apocalyptic" at a minimum if one consults Carl's Catastrophic Calamity Chart, since Anderson was present.
Also on the committee was Grover Norquist. Now, I know very little about Mr. Norquist, but I hope that he wins Time's Person of the Year at some point, because I think anyone who has had to suffer with "Grover Norquist" as a name for so long deserves some sort of high-profile award.
Report a Typo
