Blizzard on Groundhog Day? Sounds familiar.
There may be a big storm next week, but I'd like to take a look back at the Groundhog Day Storm that wasn't, in 2009.
Published Jan 25, 2020 2:05 AM EST
-- Bill Murray in "Groundhog Day" 1993
The models have been hinting about it for days and we have a news story about a potential blockbuster blizzard for the Northeast around Groundhog Day 2020.
Storm threat map from our story for Groundhog Day 2020
Here's the thing. It has happened before. Probably the biggest one you'll remember was the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011, but I'd like to take a look back at the Groundhog Day Storm that wasn't, in 2009.
On January 30, 2009, I was super-hyped about the storm on my blog. Meteorologists -- including me -- were comparing the upcoming storm to the Blizzard of 1993 and the last blockbuster Northeast winter storm, the Valentine's Day Blizzard of 2007. In fact, the maps didn't look that different than what we see today (the 2009 storm was, at one time, progged to be below 960 mb, the pressure equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane; this week progs have gone as low as 953 mb though the ).
To quote from Elliot Abrams' blog on the same day:
"Yesterday, the GFS operational run, the ECMWF and other models all showed a substantial storm sweeping northward or north-northeastward through the eastern part of the country."
AccuWeather Forecast map for Groundhog Day 2009, a few days beforehand.
The models called for waves over 30 feet off the East Coast, more than 18 inches of snow in New England, and winds that could approach 100 mph. Three days later, only minor amounts of snow fell in scattered areas (72-hour snowfall shown below), and not much else occurred.
The surface map on Feb. 2, 2009 showed only a cold front with a few minor low pressure systems along it.
WPC Surface Analysis 2/2/2009
Elliot mentioned that there was a rumor that a big volcano erupting in Alaska (Mt. Redoubt), and that could be the cause of the model madness. Why? Elliot explained:
"There is a big volcano erupting in Alaska, and planes are probably being re-routed to avoid the plume of ash, etc. that can damage engines, etc. Those aircraft are equipped with weather monitoring instruments, and that data is very useful in regions where other types of data are not available. The area affected is in or near the area where a lot of the traffic flies between Asia and North America. If the the weather system that will either cause or prevent the alleged storm for next week is over an area with poor data now, the numerical models have no way to handle it properly."
Ultimately, the volcano didn't erupt until March (though it gave us all quite a scare in late January). I can't find any evidence that air traffic was affected prior to the eruption, so we may just have to blame this one on bad computer forecasts.
Historically, big storms that hit the U.S. within a day of February 2nd include:
Look, it's still almost 10 days out. I'm not saying that we can't have a blizzard on Groundhog Day, but it's only happened twice (in the Midwest & Northeast) this century so far, and stories about bad forecasts are a dime a dozen this time of year. One blogger's research shows that half of NYC's busted blizzard forecasts were between Jan. 15 & Feb. 15.
Report a Typo
Weather Blogs / WeatherMatrix
Blizzard on Groundhog Day? Sounds familiar.
There may be a big storm next week, but I'd like to take a look back at the Groundhog Day Storm that wasn't, in 2009.
Published Jan 25, 2020 2:05 AM EST
-- Bill Murray in "Groundhog Day" 1993
The models have been hinting about it for days and we have a news story about a potential blockbuster blizzard for the Northeast around Groundhog Day 2020.
Storm threat map from our story for Groundhog Day 2020
Here's the thing. It has happened before. Probably the biggest one you'll remember was the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011, but I'd like to take a look back at the Groundhog Day Storm that wasn't, in 2009.
THE 2009 GROUNDHOG DAY BLIZZARD BUST
On January 30, 2009, I was super-hyped about the storm on my blog. Meteorologists -- including me -- were comparing the upcoming storm to the Blizzard of 1993 and the last blockbuster Northeast winter storm, the Valentine's Day Blizzard of 2007. In fact, the maps didn't look that different than what we see today (the 2009 storm was, at one time, progged to be below 960 mb, the pressure equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane; this week progs have gone as low as 953 mb though the ).
To quote from Elliot Abrams' blog on the same day:
"Yesterday, the GFS operational run, the ECMWF and other models all showed a substantial storm sweeping northward or north-northeastward through the eastern part of the country."
AccuWeather Forecast map for Groundhog Day 2009, a few days beforehand.
The models called for waves over 30 feet off the East Coast, more than 18 inches of snow in New England, and winds that could approach 100 mph. Three days later, only minor amounts of snow fell in scattered areas (72-hour snowfall shown below), and not much else occurred.
The surface map on Feb. 2, 2009 showed only a cold front with a few minor low pressure systems along it.
WPC Surface Analysis 2/2/2009
Elliot mentioned that there was a rumor that a big volcano erupting in Alaska (Mt. Redoubt), and that could be the cause of the model madness. Why? Elliot explained:
"There is a big volcano erupting in Alaska, and planes are probably being re-routed to avoid the plume of ash, etc. that can damage engines, etc. Those aircraft are equipped with weather monitoring instruments, and that data is very useful in regions where other types of data are not available. The area affected is in or near the area where a lot of the traffic flies between Asia and North America. If the the weather system that will either cause or prevent the alleged storm for next week is over an area with poor data now, the numerical models have no way to handle it properly."
Ultimately, the volcano didn't erupt until March (though it gave us all quite a scare in late January). I can't find any evidence that air traffic was affected prior to the eruption, so we may just have to blame this one on bad computer forecasts.
OTHER GROUNDHOG DAY STORMS OF NOTE
Historically, big storms that hit the U.S. within a day of February 2nd include:
1881: Blizzard (sketchy WikiPedia entry that doesn't mention a location)
1976: New England & Canada "Groundhog Day Gale" - caused extreme coastal damage in Canada
1998: Tornado Outbreak in Florida
2011: Groundhog Day Blizzard in Central Plains, Midwest & Northeast
2015: Groundhog Day Blizzard in Midwest & Northeast
2016: Blizzard in the Northern Plains
WILL WE BUST IN 2020?
Look, it's still almost 10 days out. I'm not saying that we can't have a blizzard on Groundhog Day, but it's only happened twice (in the Midwest & Northeast) this century so far, and stories about bad forecasts are a dime a dozen this time of year. One blogger's research shows that half of NYC's busted blizzard forecasts were between Jan. 15 & Feb. 15.