Global weather

Tropical threat brewing in the West Pacific

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
7/17/2018, 12:44:32 PM

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While Tropical Storm Son-tinh lashes China and northern Indochina, a new and potentially more dangerous threat is expected to develop later this week.

GFS Saturday 7/17

The above image is based on the GFS model, showing a strong tropical cyclone near Taiwan on Saturday.


A large area of unsettled weather to the east of the Philippines is forecast to organize into a named tropical cyclone in the coming days.

Upon reaching tropical storm status, the JMA would give the tropical cyclone the name Ampil.

An initial track northward would take the threat east of Taiwan and near the southern Ryukyu Islands which were dealt the worst impacts from former Super Typhoon Maria earlier this month.

High pressure centered over Japan will prevent a continued northward track and instead force the storm westward toward Taiwan by this weekend.

Taiwan could take a direct hit from the tropical cyclone which may reach typhoon strength prior to approaching the island.

A direct hit on Taiwan would dramatically weaken the cyclone and bring less impacts to China as it continues on a westward track.

If the cyclone stays just north of Taiwan and tracks similar to former Super Typhoon Maria it will remain at peak strength and also bring more severe impacts to the areas that were hit hardest by Maria.

Check back to AccuWeather.com for additional details on this potentially dangerous tropical system in the coming days.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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