Significant rain and snow to reach central Chile next week
By
Jason Nicholls, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Aug 13, 2021 10:42 AM EDT
Much of Chile has been in the throes of a significant drought over the past several months or years. The lack of rain is resulting in water shortages in some areas. The areas hit hardest by the drought are across central Chile or namely from Región de Los Lagos through Región Metropolitana de Santiago into Región de Valparaíso.
Looking specifically at the one measure of drought, The Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), around the capital of Santiago, we can see a drop in the SPEI in the 1990s. The most significant worsening of the drought got underway in the mid-2000s and has been consistently in the severe to extreme drought range since 2010.
https://spei.csic.es/index.html
So far in 2021, rainfall around Santiago is running 25-30 percent of normal with actual rainfall deficits for the year of 158-180 mm (6.22-7.09 inches). The last measurable rain event for Santiago was back on 25 June. However, there is some good news with what looks to be a much-needed wet week for central Chile next week.
A deep and slow-moving upper trough approaching from the west should bring a few rounds of rain and mountain snow to central Chile from Monday into Friday. Rain and snow are expected to reach southern Chile later Sunday. A piece of energy ahead of the main trough can bring mainly light rain and mountain snow to central Chile on Monday.
Precipitation amounts with the initial batch are expected to be light in much of central and southern Chile with rainfall around Santiago on Monday generally less than 5 mm (0.20 of an inch).
The stronger system is expected to reach southern Chile on Tuesday, while central Chile can briefly dry out before the main event impacts central Chile with heavier rain and mountain snow on Tuesday night or Wednesday into Thursday. A few light rain and mountain snow showers can linger on Friday. Precipitation with the Wednesday and Thursday event is expected to reach as far north as Región de Coquimbo or even southern Región de Atacama.
Precipitation across much of southern and central Chile to as far north as Región de Valparaíso from Monday through Friday is expected to total 25-75 mm (1-3 inches) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 150 mm (6 inches) in the valleys and 300 mm (12 inches) in the Andes. Lesser precipitation amounts are expected in Región de Coquimbo and southern Región de Atacama.
Snow levels will start the week around 3,000 meters (9,800 feet) and are expected to fall to around 2,000 meters (6,500 feet) around midweek. Significant late-season snowfall is likely across the Andes next week with most likely snow accumulations of 15-45 centimeters (6-18 inches) is expected above 2,000-2,500 meters with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 127 centimeters (50 inches).
Confidence in a much-needed significant precipitation event is medium to high since not only the operational models are showing, but there is also support from the various ensembles. The CFS weeklies and GEFS both support above-normal precipitation across much of southern and central Chile for next week.
The Extreme Forecast Index from the ECMWF also has been consistently showing high probabilities for heavier precipitation across central Chile for around the middle of next week. As always to keep up with the latest local forecasts and any updates with the weather across Chile visit AccuWeather.com at https://www.accuweather.com/en/cl/chile-weather.
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Weather Blogs / Global weather
Significant rain and snow to reach central Chile next week
By Jason Nicholls, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Aug 13, 2021 10:42 AM EDT
Much of Chile has been in the throes of a significant drought over the past several months or years. The lack of rain is resulting in water shortages in some areas. The areas hit hardest by the drought are across central Chile or namely from Región de Los Lagos through Región Metropolitana de Santiago into Región de Valparaíso.
Looking specifically at the one measure of drought, The Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), around the capital of Santiago, we can see a drop in the SPEI in the 1990s. The most significant worsening of the drought got underway in the mid-2000s and has been consistently in the severe to extreme drought range since 2010.
https://spei.csic.es/index.html
So far in 2021, rainfall around Santiago is running 25-30 percent of normal with actual rainfall deficits for the year of 158-180 mm (6.22-7.09 inches). The last measurable rain event for Santiago was back on 25 June. However, there is some good news with what looks to be a much-needed wet week for central Chile next week.
A deep and slow-moving upper trough approaching from the west should bring a few rounds of rain and mountain snow to central Chile from Monday into Friday. Rain and snow are expected to reach southern Chile later Sunday. A piece of energy ahead of the main trough can bring mainly light rain and mountain snow to central Chile on Monday.
Precipitation amounts with the initial batch are expected to be light in much of central and southern Chile with rainfall around Santiago on Monday generally less than 5 mm (0.20 of an inch).
The stronger system is expected to reach southern Chile on Tuesday, while central Chile can briefly dry out before the main event impacts central Chile with heavier rain and mountain snow on Tuesday night or Wednesday into Thursday. A few light rain and mountain snow showers can linger on Friday. Precipitation with the Wednesday and Thursday event is expected to reach as far north as Región de Coquimbo or even southern Región de Atacama.
Precipitation across much of southern and central Chile to as far north as Región de Valparaíso from Monday through Friday is expected to total 25-75 mm (1-3 inches) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 150 mm (6 inches) in the valleys and 300 mm (12 inches) in the Andes. Lesser precipitation amounts are expected in Región de Coquimbo and southern Región de Atacama.
Snow levels will start the week around 3,000 meters (9,800 feet) and are expected to fall to around 2,000 meters (6,500 feet) around midweek. Significant late-season snowfall is likely across the Andes next week with most likely snow accumulations of 15-45 centimeters (6-18 inches) is expected above 2,000-2,500 meters with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 127 centimeters (50 inches).
Confidence in a much-needed significant precipitation event is medium to high since not only the operational models are showing, but there is also support from the various ensembles. The CFS weeklies and GEFS both support above-normal precipitation across much of southern and central Chile for next week.
The Extreme Forecast Index from the ECMWF also has been consistently showing high probabilities for heavier precipitation across central Chile for around the middle of next week. As always to keep up with the latest local forecasts and any updates with the weather across Chile visit AccuWeather.com at https://www.accuweather.com/en/cl/chile-weather.
Report a Typo