Global tropical prospects into next week

The Indian Ocean remains active with Intense Tropical Cyclone Darian and a tropical low pushing into the southeast Arabian Sea. We are also watching former Tropical Cyclone Ellie over northern Australia.

The area of low pressure is pushing into the southeast Arabian Sea and should remain rather weak as it tracks west across the southern Arabian Sea this week. Development into a cyclone is unlikely, but it will bring scattered rain to Sri Lanka and southern India into Tuesday. Showers can eventually reach Socotra and Somalia late Friday and this weekend.

In the southern Indian Ocean, Intense Tropical Cyclone Darian is northeast of Rodrigues Island and tracking slowly south. Darian is the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Darian will turn southwest late Monday or Monday night with weakening expected from Tuesday. This track will keep the storm over the open southern Indian Ocean and the storm should be no threat to land.

Meanwhile, former Tropical Cyclone Ellie remains slow moving over Northern Territory but should track northwest starting on Tuesday, local time. The low can strengthen near the Kimberley coast of Western Australia Friday and this weekend with a chance for redevelopment if it can move over water. Regardless of redevelopment, this feature will bring heavy rain and the risk of flooding to the northern Northern Territory through Thursday, local time, and northeast Western Australia from Wednesday into Monday, local time.

The monsoon trough off and around northern Australia will remain active through next week which can give rise to tropical low development in the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Coral Sea. The best chance for a tropical low to form is expected to be around New Caledonia and Vanuatu later this week with the chance to become a cyclone as it meanders toward and near Lord Howe Island Friday and this weekend. Gusty winds and heavier rain are possible around Lord Howe Island this weekend into early next week.

In the longer range, conditions can be conducive for a tropical low to develop over the southern Philippine Sea late next week with a low chance to become a depression next weekend or early the following week.

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