Active tropics from Australia to southern Africa this week

It has turned active around Australia with newly formed Tropical Cyclone Kimi over the Coral Sea and Tropical Low 08U is near the northeast of the Top End.

Tropical Cyclone Kimi is a Category 1 cyclone on the BOM will track southward into Tuesday, local time, before turning back toward the north-northwest Tuesday afternoon or night, local time. Kimi is expected to weaken gradually Monday night and Tuesday and could weaken back to a tropical low Tuesday night or early Wednesday, local time. The low will parallel the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula on Wednesday with the center remaining offshore. Although Kimi is no longer expected to make landfall, there will be rounds of rain, some heavy, along the Queensland coast from Ayr to Innisfall into Wednesday, local time. There can be areas of flooding across these areas due to the rain.

Tropical Low 08U is near the northwest tip of the Top End and will track westward into the Timor Sea on Tuesday, local time. Land interaction will limit the chance for development into a tropical cyclone through Tuesday, but the system will bring rainfall of 1-3 inches (25-75 mm) to the northwest tip of Northern Territory into Tuesday, local time. Areas of flooding are possible.

Once over the open waters of the Timor Sea, the chance for tropical low 08U to develop into a tropical cyclone will improve starting Wednesday, local time. The exact track of the storm is a little uncertain, but the system can impact the Kimberley coast or Pilbara coast late in the week.

To the west of Australia, Tropical Cyclone Joshua is over the open southern Indian Ocean and will track toward the west-southwest during the next few days. This storm poses no threat to Australia or any other landmasses.

A tropical low is expected to form near the Cocos Islands later this week and conditions should be favorable for development into a cyclone over the open Indian Ocean late in the week. Even if a storm develops in this area it should be a minimal threat to land and no threat to Australia.

Farther west, Moderate Tropical Storm Eloise has formed north of the Mascarene Islands and is tracking westward with some strengthening expected over the next couple of days. Eloise has the potential to become a severe tropical storm before striking Madagascar late Tuesday night or Wednesday, local time.

Damaging winds and coastal flooding are possible near landfall in northeast Madagascar Tuesday into Wednesday, local time. Eloise is expected to produce widespread rainfall of 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) across northern Madagascar with an AccuWeather Local StormMax(TM) of 12 inches (300 mm) from Tuesday through Thursday.

Eloise can enter the Mozambique Channel as a depression or remnant low late Thursday or Thursday night. Once over water, the storm can restrengthen to a moderate tropical storm or stronger before threatening southern Mozambique next weekend. Destructive winds could be a problem nearest landfall depending on intensity, but flooding will be a big concern across southern Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe and northeast South Africa into parts of Botswana from Saturday into Monday.