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The West will be in a period of tranquility in the weather through the weekend and to start next week. After that there will be some changes.
This weekend will be precipitation-free from north to south. Remember back at the beginning of the week when there was a tremendous difference in the models with the GFS bringing rain into the Southwest and California but the European was dry. Score: European 1, GFS 0. A lot of higher-level clouds will move through parts of the Southwest and California, but temperatures will remain unseasonably mild as a ridge aloft holds its ground. That same ridge also keeps the Northwest dry as well. The only problem in the forecast is that we could be looking at another period of air stagnation developing over the valleys of eastern Washington, Oregon and Idaho that leads to development of fog and low clouds that by Sunday and Monday may have a hard time in breaking in spots.
The changes first take place in the Northwest by Tuesday with some rain moving in to western Washington and Oregon. Another storm is possible late next Wednesday and Thursday, and it is this storm that could push south into California bringing rain sometime Thursday and Thursday night. Areas farther east in the Great Basin and Arizona may not see any precipitation chances until the end of the week.
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Tropical Rainstorm Bud will fuel downpours and bring flash flooding to the Southwest through Saturday night. Next week, heat is expected to build in across the West.
Tropical moisture from Bud will surge into the Southwest U.S. Friday and into the weekend and will lead to heavy showers and thunderstorms.
A ridge of high pressure will promote heat across the Intermountain West this week.
An increase in showers and thunderstorms will occur into this week across the interior western U.S. Heat will build in late next week.
Dry and windy conditions along with above-average heat will continue the risk for wildfires across the Southwest. The heat will retreat over the weekend though.
Temperatures will remain above-average through next week across the western U.S. and may even challenge records in some places.