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1. In the wake of a cold front that is moving out to sea, colder air is moving into the Northeast today. A band of snow moved in with the cold air from western Pennsylvania into West Virginia, but that result is not expected to be repeated in the I-95 corridor. This is the surface pressure map from 8 a.m. ET:
2. The following maps show alternating periods mildness and chill this week into next:
On Wednesday, the flow coming over the Middle Atlantic states looks like it originates in the Southwest. Cold flow across Canada is heading east rather than south. However, by the start of the weekend, colder air is advancing into the Northeast as shown here:
However, the chill does not look like it will persist. The flow aloft over the Northeast will become westerly and then southwesterly. By next Tuesday, it would be much milder than average. However, there will also be a stream of moist air heading toward the region from the Gulf states. If widespread cloudiness develops, it will diminish the warmup.
3. Meanwhile, in the upper stratosphere we may be seeing the start of a cold/stormy signal. The main vortex looked squeezed late last week (first map) and has now split. It is important to realize that the "signal" does give much information about where the biggest changes in pattern will show up.
It will be interesting to see how this situation turns out.
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