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News / Severe Weather

Slow-moving storm to deluge eastern US

By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published May 18, 2020 4:06 PM EST

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Right on the heels of Arthur, the first Atlantic tropical storm of 2020, skirting along the Eastern Seaboard on Monday, a strong non-tropical storm will exit the Midwest and head into the East, where it will stall for days to unleash repeated flooding downpours.

Torrential rain caused widespread flash flooding around Chicago on Sunday as the storm deluged a large part of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Both Chicago's O'Hare and Midway airports were doused by more than 3 inches of rain on Sunday alone.

Due in a large part to this storm, O'Hare received 8.20 inches of rain so far in May, more than two times the normal rainfall for the entire month.

"By early Monday morning, 24-hour rainfall totals of 2-4 inches were widespread from Wisconsin and Illinois to western Michigan and Indiana," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Mary Gilbert.

While flooding was the most widespread impact on Sunday, a few severe thunderstorms were also embedded within the downpours. At least three brief tornadoes were reported by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Illinois on Sunday afternoon.

#Tornado that occurred 1 mile east of Elwin, #Illinois around 4:10 PM. It lofted debris several hundred yards into the air. Video soon! #ilwx @NWSLincolnIL @Thunder12uss pic.twitter.com/rOSMYpTwji

— Kholby Martin (@StormChaser220) May 17, 2020

A large swath of the eastern United States will be at risk of similar threats of flooding rain and isolated severe thunderstorms, as the large area of low pressure crawls eastward this week.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms focused over much of central and eastern Michigan, eastern Indiana, western Ohio and eastern Kentucky from Monday afternoon through much of Monday night.

Many daily rainfall records were broken across the area on Monday.

Daily rainfall records were set at all SE Michigan climate sites yesterday (all previous records from 2000).
• Tri Cities: 3.12" (prev. record 1.20")
• Flint: 2.57" (2.23")
• Detroit: 1.71" (1.50") #miwx

— NWS Detroit (@NWSDetroit) May 19, 2020

There was also one report of a tornado as heavy rain fell Monday evening just west of Columbus, Ohio.

Monday 5/18 rainfall records: 🌧️🌧️🌧️
Columbus (CMH): 2.33", breaking the old record of 1.47" set in 1927. 2nd highest daily total for the month of May in recorded history (1878-2020).
Cincinnati (CVG): 1.72", breaking the old record of 1.58" set in 1929. #ohwx #climate

— NWS Wilmington OH (@NWSILN) May 19, 2020

On Tuesday, heavy rain led to the failure of several dams in Midland County, Michigan.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer issued an emergency declaration after the Edenville and Sanford dams failed on Tuesday, forcing thousands of residents to immediately evacuate their homes.

"In this type of setup, the heavy rain and thunderstorms form into broad, very slow-moving lines, which then 'train' over the same areas. Torrential rain can last for hours underneath these slow-moving lines," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel said.

The sluggish-moving system will sink farther south toward the Tennessee Valley through Thursday, where it will stall yet again.

"After Tropical Storm Arthur caused the storm to stall in the Midwest this past weekend, a strong area of high pressure shifting into the Great Lakes and Northeast will cause it to stall again over the Tennessee Valley this week," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Isaac Longley.

This will focus the heavier rain farther south and east for the middle part of the week, with a bull's-eye seemingly painted on the southern Appalachians.

"A stream of atmospheric moisture originating in the tropics, known as an atmospheric river, will help to carry moisture toward the southeastern coast of the US," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.

"Once this storm stalls in the Tennessee Valley, it will tap into this moisture from the atmospheric river and shove it up against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians," explained Samuhel. "This will create a few days of persistent and, at times, heavy rain for portions of the Appalachians."

Satellite imagery shows high levels of water vapor (moisture) streaming from Central America toward the Carolinas Tuesday morning. This is known as an 'atmospheric river'.

In the mountainous terrain, flash flooding and mudslides will become an increasing threat through the week as the ground becomes more and more saturated in the region.

Related:

Preparing for the costliest weather disaster in the US: How to stay safe before, during and after a flood
Tornado season hits an historically deadly peak this week
State of emergency declared, evacuations underway for 10,000 residents in Michigan following dam failure

AccuWeather forecasters predict that in the areas hit hardest in the southern Appalachians, an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches of rainfall is possible.

Outside of the hardest-hit areas in the Appalachians, downpours will still be a concern.

"While the focus of the heavy rain will be on the southern Appalachians, it will also be a rainy and cool few days for surrounding areas, from Kentucky to Virginia, down through Georgia," Longley said.

Cities from Richmond, Virginia, to Raleigh, North Carolina, to Savannah, Georgia, will experience occasional downpours and thunderstorms through much of the week. The high pressure area sitting to the north will also bring some cooler air to the region.

The most noticeable cooldown will be felt across the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures will be held 5-10 degrees below normal across much of these regions for this time of year. In areas where rain and clouds are more persistent, high temperatures can get stuck as much as 15-20 degrees below normal.

In Raleigh, high temperatures are forecast to top out in the mid-60s on Wednesday and Thursday, with rain and thunderstorms pestering the area. The normal high temperature in Raleigh for mid-May is around 80.

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In Lynchburg, Virginia, a high of just 55 degrees is forecast for a rainy Wednesday. The normal high temperature there is 76.

AccuWeather meteorologists say there is hope on the horizon for warmth to return. "More summerlike warmth and humidity look to return for much of the East in time for Memorial Day weekend," Samuhel said. "However, New England could be the one area in the East that remains a little cooler."

"The more summerlike pattern will also mean some pop-up showers and thunderstorms, which could interrupt some outdoor plans for the holiday weekend," Samuhel added.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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