Severe weather, tornado threat to build in southern US this week
More than 40 million people may be at risk for severe weather, which is expected to erupt from the Gulf coast to the Great Lakes region this week.
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Two storms are poised to bring severe weather over portions of the south-central United States this week, but it is the second storm that may bring a heightened risk of dangerous thunderstorms, including the threat of a few tornadoes, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
Factoring in the multiple rounds and areal coverage of upcoming severe weather this week, more than 40 million people may be at risk. Some of the same locations that have been hit repeatedly by severe weather, including the threat of tornadoes, so far this winter may get hit again this week.
"The first and weaker of the storm duo will pivot quickly through the Central U.S. on Tuesday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis said.
On the storm’s northern and western edge, enough cold air will be in place for accumulating snowfall, which will lead to slippery travel early in the week.
Farther south and east, a broad area of showers and thunderstorms will erupt. There is potential for a squall line to extend from north-central Texas to Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, AccuWeather forecasters say. Major cities that could be affected by thunderstorms for a time early Tuesday morning include Dallas and Oklahoma City, but the storms are likely to shift east of both metro areas by the bulk of the Tuesday morning drive.
Heavy gusty thunderstorms will shift eastward on Tuesday from northeastern Texas to southern Missouri with the likelihood of locally strong storms in northeastern Louisiana, western Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee Tuesday evening. Major cities in the path of the storms on Tuesday afternoon include Little Rock, Arkansas, and Springfield, Missouri.
Even though many of the storms into Tuesday evening are expected to fall below severe levels, they can still be problematic. The main threats from the storms will be strong wind gusts that could knock down trees and torrential downpours that could lead to flash flooding, forecasters say.
It is possible that some storms in eastern Kansas and western Missouri, including around the Kansas City, Missouri, metro area could become severe during Tuesday afternoon and evening. These storms may pose a higher risk of damaging winds and hail.
"A stronger storm system will pivot from northwestern Texas on Wednesday to northern Michigan on Thursday night," Travis said. Because the first storm will have already left behind some warm and moist Gulf of Mexico air over the South Central states, the new storm is likely to take advantage and may lead to an explosion of severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday as strong jet stream energy sweeps over the region.
"Given the scope of unseasonable warmth in areas in advance of this storm, it will act more like an April storm rather than a February storm," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said. "The severe weather threat can extend much farther to the north than typically occurs during the middle of February, potentially affecting northern portions of Indiana and Ohio."
The full spectrum of severe weather is likely from Wednesday evening to Thursday, ranging from storms with high winds and hail to flash flooding and a few tornadoes, Travis said. The threat on Wednesday will mainly be overnight which will be particularly dangerous as people will be sleeping and tornadoes will be harder to see.
Severe thunderstorms will ramp up Wednesday evening from northeastern Texas to southern Missouri and expand eastward to western portions of Mississippi and Tennessee into overnight. Once again cities that could be at a heightened risk of severe weather on Wednesday evening and night include Longview, Texas, Shreveport, Louisiana, and Little Rock.
During nocturnal storms it is especially important to make sure all cellphones and other weather notification devices, like a NOAA weather radio, are fully charged and that your shelter is stocked with food, water, blankets, pillows, and any items to stay entertained. There's no telling how long you might be there.
On Thursday, the risk of violent thunderstorms and tornadoes will shift eastward with a heightened risk in the states of Mississippi and Alabama -- a zone where there have been dozens of tornadoes so far this winter. The severe weather threat on Thursday either from tornadoes or strong wind gusts will extend along a 900-mile-long swath from near the central Gulf coast to around the lower Great Lakes region.
Another zone where there is a heightened risk of severe thunderstorms amidst the stormy pattern will focus on Ohio and portions of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky on Thursday. While the threat for tornadoes will be lower in the northern zone, storms in that area will likely pack more of a punch in terms of damaging wind gusts and power outages.
As the rounds of severe weather erupt and shift eastward, there are likely to be episodes of flight delays and cancellations. Ground stops may be implemented at the major hubs of Dallas, Atlanta, St. Louis, Cincinnati and Memphis, Tennessee. Motorists should be prepared for rapidly changing and dangerous weather conditions along portions of interstate highways 20, 30, 40, 49, 55 and 65.
Just as the second storm is likely to produce a prolific and widespread amount of severe weather from Wednesday to Thursday, it is also likely to produce a swath of heavy snow and major travel disruptions on its cold side from Colorado to northern Michigan, where local snowfall of 6-12 inches is possible.
Since the second storm is likely to race into Canada by Friday, along with much of the jet stream energy, any severe weather from the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast is likely to be spotty and brief. A sweep of chilly air will end the threat of severe weather over the Central states by the end of the week.
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