Severe weather, flash flooding concerns to keep central US on alert
Daily rounds of thunderstorms will cause a slew of hazards across the midsection of the nation and among those dangers will be life-threatening flash flooding.
AccuWeather meteorologists warn that a busy pattern strewn with severe thunderstorms and pockets of flooding downpours will continue to plague the same portions of the central United States from one day to the next into the weekend.
Multiple disturbances will continue to ride along the northern edge of a heat dome anchored over Texas. These disturbances will set off rounds of thunderstorms with the likelihood of torrential rain, high winds, hail and frequent lightning strikes. In some cases, a few tornadoes may be triggered in the strongest storms.
"Through the end of the week, it’s not out of the question that some towns could be hit with drenching thunderstorms and perhaps severe thunderstorms two or three times," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis said.
Daily dose of severe weather for some
One zone where thunderstorms are likely to be repeat offenders through the rest of the week will extend from eastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming to much of Nebraska, northern and western Kansas and southern South Dakota.
The multiple-day storm threat will affect residents not far from the Denver metro area and vast stretches of interstates 70 and 80 over the central Plains.
The actual areal coverage may vary a bit from one day to the next through Saturday. However, most of the days will bring some nasty storms and risks to lives, property, outdoor plans and travel.
On Saturday, a strong storm system will begin to roll eastward over the central Plains. During Saturday afternoon and night, the risk of severe thunderstorms will extend farther to the northeast into portions of southern Minnesota and much of Iowa, while storms continue to erupt in eastern Colorado.
This same storm system will continue to roll eastward later this weekend to early next week.
On Sunday, some of the major metro areas of the Midwest, including Chicago, Detroit and Indianapolis, may be at risk for dangerous, powerful and disruptive storms. As the disturbance gains strength through Sunday night, the risk for severe thunderstorms will also extend southward across much of Tennessee, potentially clipping northern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia as well.
Severe weather dangers from the same storm system are likely to impact parts of the Northeast on Monday.
High risk of flash flooding
While the storms will result in travel disruptions, power outages and localized property damage, flash flooding may quickly become a life-threatening situation in some areas.
AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring flash flooding concerns from central and eastern Missouri to southern Iowa, southwestern Illinois, southern and western Kentucky and much of Tennessee as well as much of Georgia and portions of the Carolinas and Alabama into Saturday.
Major metro areas of St. Louis and Nashville, as well as the cities of Quincy, Illinois; Bowling Green, Kentucky; and Knoxville, Tennessee, are among the communities in the corridor at risk for dangerous flash flooding episodes.
Within this zone, a general 2-4 inches of rain will fall, but there will likely be pockets of 4-8 inches of rain with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches. Much of this rain may fall within a few hours.
And, as Travis stated, some places could be hit with heavy rain and flooding more than once.
Some of the same areas that were drenched by several rounds of torrential rain earlier this week were getting soaked again on Friday morning in southeastern Missouri and western portions of Kentucky and Tennessee. Rain was falling at a rate of 1-2 inches per hour in some locations and has prompted flash flood emergencies due to rapid rises in water levels on area small streams and low-lying areas.
The locations that may pick up the heaviest amount of rain and that may be at greatest risk for flash flooding include the middle Mississippi Valley and the southern Appalachians. However, any community in the forecast corridor of torrential downpours will be at risk for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding.
Even beyond Saturday, the risk of flash flooding and locally gusty thunderstorms will continue and may extend as far to the south as the Gulf Coast.
Despite the high risk of flash flooding, flooding will not occur on the major rivers. Levels on the major waterways are near or below August levels. Even though a brief rise is likely on the Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee rivers, water levels will remain below minor flood stage in most cases. Some of the small rivers that feed into the major rivers, such as the St. Francis River in Missouri and the Obion River in Tennessee, will experience more significant rises and the potential for some flooding in unprotected areas.
Farther northwest, a life-threatening flash flood situation could evolve across part of the Rocky Mountains into Friday night. More specifically, the area with the most significant risk encompasses the Tetons in western Wyoming and also includes a portion of Yellowstone National Park.
The steep terrain in the region combined with the potential for several inches of rain to fall in a couple of hours will create a recipe for rapid runoff into area streams. Forecasters suggest that visitors in the park have the means to receive weather bulletins and heed warnings as they are issued.
Along with the threat of lightning strikes associated with thunderstorms, it is possible that a wall of water could rush down through the valleys and canyons in the region as heavy rain falls upstream.
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