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Severe storms to target areas from Dallas to Detroit into Sunday night

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Apr 22, 2022 12:37 PM EDT | Updated Apr 24, 2022 6:16 AM EDT

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Severe winds and low humidity led to critical fire danger from Arizona to Nebraska on April 22, followed by powerful thunderstorms in the same area.

The risk of severe weather, including isolated tornadoes this weekend, will focus on portions of the central United States that have seen few to no violent storms thus far this spring, AccuWeather meteorologists say. Meanwhile, some areas of the hard-hit South Central and Southeast regions should catch a welcome break this weekend.

There have only been a couple of days so far this spring where a severe weather outbreak affected a large portion of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The most recent event was on April 12, which featured about a dozen reports of tornadoes and dozens of high wind and hail incidents. A more concentrated and violent outbreak of severe weather occurred on March 5, when at least 40 tornadoes were reported from Iowa and Missouri to Ohio and severe weather incidents numbered at least 200.

A strong storm system will spin toward the Canada border of the Central states this weekend and unleash yet another blizzard for portions of the Dakotas, Montana and Wyoming.

A major outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is not anticipated this weekend, despite the strength of the storm system. However, the risk for both will push slowly to the east into progressively more densely populated areas of the Plains and Midwest along and ahead of a cold front.

A few isolated tornadoes can occur anywhere in the severe weather threat zones on Sunday, forecasters say. All it takes is for one tornado to strike a populated area to pose a great risk to lives and property. While the risk of tornadoes may be low overall with this setup, storms capable of producing large hail and strong winds could result in considerable risk and damage some communities.

On Friday evening, a severe thunderstorm brought baseball size hail to the southwest of Eva, Oklahoma, according to the National Weather Service. Baseball size hail was also reported in Leoti, Kansas, on Friday night. Heavy rain was also a problem, with nearly 4 inches of rain being reported near Maxwell, Iowa, on Friday afternoon.

On Friday night, the National Weather Service in Sioux Falls said there was visual confirmation of a tornado located 5 miles northwest of Wolsey, South Dakota. Another tornado was reported near Winona, Kansas.

Severe thunderstorms on Saturday pushed eastward and extended along a 1,100-mile-long swath from eastern North Dakota and much of Minnesota, southward to much of Oklahoma and north-central Texas. Storms turned nasty, unleashing damaging wind, hail and tornadoes.

On Saturday evening, ping pong sized hail was reported near Crookston, Minnesota, as the storm came through the northwestern part of the state. In Iowa, thunderstorm wind gusts of 70 miles per hour were reported in multiple areas in the southwestern part of the state. Early Sunday morning, ping pong to golf ball sized hail was also reported in Big Spring, Texas.

By the time the cold front pushes through the Chicago metro area Sunday morning, when daytime heating will be near the minimum, the storms should be less intense. Still, a few neighborhoods may experience some thunder, vivid lightning and brief gusty downpours.

The passage of that front will mark an end to the surge of summerlike warmth in much of the Plains and Midwest. Temperatures will be no better than the lower 70s on Sunday following a high in the lower 80s on Saturday. By Monday, the temperatures may struggle to reach the mid-50s.

On Sunday, the overall risk of violent thunderstorms will be lower. However, a few locally severe thunderstorms are still anticipated during the afternoon and evening along the advancing cold front.

The greatest concentration of locally severe storms on Sunday may be in portions of central and western Texas, southeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. However, some gusty storms can also occur in parts of the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes regions.

The southwestern portion of the front is forecast to stall through Monday. This boundary with cool air to the north and warm and humid air to the south is likely to lead to repeating showers and thunderstorms. The total rainfall from these persistent storms could lead to urban and small stream flooding, forecasters warn.

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Some of the drenching downpours into the start of next week may extend far enough to the west to reach some communities in western and central parts of Texas and Oklahoma that are struggling with long-term drought and heightened wildfire danger. Since early in July 2021, Abilene, Texas, has only received about 48% of its normal rainfall. From July 1 to April 22, rainfall averages 18.03 inches, but a rainfall total of only 8.73 inches has been recorded there. By comparison, Houston typically receives nearly 40 inches of rain for the same period and has had about 90% of average, or a little over 36 inches, since July 1.

Portions of the lower southern Plains are not the only region at risk for flooding problems.

In areas about 1,000 miles farther to the north, the Red River of the North is forecast to surge out of its banks for the second time this year due to the second thaw that will be ongoing, AccuWeather Meteorologist Matt Benz said.

Like that of early to mid-April, a second crest is forecast toward the end of the month as the snow that fell in recent weeks melts and combines with rain. "At Grand Forks, North Dakota, the river crested at 32.28 feet, which is the river's minor flood stage for that location, on April 15-16 and is projected to sneak above 34 feet in late April," Benz said.

Flooding problems are still expected to be relatively minor in most areas despite the late onslaught of winter storms and heavy snowfall, and another snowstorm may hit toward the end of April, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.

As the snow melts in the coming weeks over the northern High Plains, it should be mainly beneficial due to long-term abnormally dry to severe drought conditions in western portions of the Dakotas, Montana and Wyoming. Only if a tremendous rainstorm were to hit while there is a deep snowcover on the ground might flooding problems escalate in the region.

More to read:

What day is the peak of tornado season?
Beaches are eroding in one popular resort area and locals are on guard
Vanishing act: Exploring the case of the disappearing moon

For the latest weather news, check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.

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