Severe storms to rattle central US this weekend through Election Day
A new round will erupt and progress slowly eastward with the potential for strong wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes over the central United States. However, flash flooding may take center stage.
Thunderstorms rumbled from Oklahoma to Iowa on the evening of Oct. 30, packed with pelting hail, powerful wind gusts and pouring rain.
A new storm is poised to deliver multiple days of severe weather from the Plains this weekend to the Mississippi Valley early next week, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
After this week's storm produced severe weather on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, showers and thunderstorms occurred from the northwest Gulf coast to the mid-Mississippi Valley into Thursday night.
Severe weather was much quieter to close out the week for millions.
Thunderstorms over the southern Plains will be slightly boosted beginning on Saturday as a storm swings northward from Mexico ahead of a storm pushing inland over the Northwest.
The highest risk of severe thunderstorms, packing hail, strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes on Saturday will extend from southeastern New Mexico and West Texas northeastward to western and central Oklahoma.
The two storms will combine forces as the weekend progresses. Additionally, an influx of Gulf of Mexico moisture, a resurgence of warmth and jet stream energy will crank up the intensity of the thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, the slow-moving nature of the storm system bringing the torrential downpours will push rainfall amounts to heavy and even excessive levels.
Flash flooding is a real concern
Despite vast areas that are abnormally dry due to drought conditions, so much rain may fall so quickly that it leads to significant urban flooding and quick rises on some small streams.
A broad area is forecast to receive 4-8 inches of rain from the pattern this weekend to next week. A pocket of 8-12 inches of rainfall is foreseen in parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. Within this zone, there is an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 18 inches, which would more than wipe out the deficit of rainfall since the start of the summer.
The magnitude of rainfall that may occur could be on the order of a once-in-100, 200, or 300-year event in several hours to a day or more. This means that dangerous and damaging flash flooding is likely in some communities.
Severe storm risk to continue into next week
The risk of severe weather on Sunday will extend from west-central Texas northward to southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. The threat includes the major metro areas of Oklahoma City and Kansas City, Missouri, with high winds, hail, flash flooding and a few tornadoes.
On Monday, the severe weather threat will continue over roughly the same geographic region but will expand and shift farther to the east.
Severe weather on Monday will extend from central and northeastern Texas to central and eastern Iowa and western Illinois. Oklahoma City and Kansas City will be in the severe weather risk area on Monday, along with Dallas, St. Louis, Little Rock, Arkansas, and Des Moines, Iowa. Like on Sunday, some storms can pack high winds, hail, flash flooding and tornadoes. However, Monday has a greater risk for widespread damaging winds than Saturday or Sunday, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
By Election Day on Tuesday, the multiple-day severe weather event will likely be past its peak as the storm lifts north and forcing diminishes. However, there will still be a strong west-to-east temperature contrast zone with plenty of moisture in the warm air, creating ingredients for heavy, gusty and locally severe thunderstorms from eastern Texas and Louisiana to southeastern Illinois, Indiana, the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and western Ohio.
Torrential downpours, localized flash flooding and the risk of lightning strikes can still cause travel delays and trouble for voters waiting in long lines at the polls.
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