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Severe storms to erupt along Gulf Coast as flooding rain spreads eastward

By Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Jan 21, 2020 11:45 AM EDT

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Locally heavy rainfall will spread eastward across the southern United States in the coming days, but AccuWeather forecasters say flooding is not the only threat they are closely monitoring with this approaching storm.

As this storm moves through the Plains it will bring a mix of rain and snow to the Midwest. But across the Deep South, this storm will threaten the region with areas of flooding and locally severe thunderstorms.

During Wednesday, rain fell from coastal and northeastern Texas to western Louisiana, much of Arkansas and southern Missouri. Sleet and freezing rain occurred in the Ozarks for a time.

During the balance of the week, the rain will shift from the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf coast to the Southeast states.

By Thursday afternoon, rain can reach as far east as middle Tennessee, and western Alabama.

"A storm system moving eastward along the Gulf Coast will bring a piece of energy to the region that can ignite thunderstorms," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Edwards.

These storms can tap into the moisture available along the Gulf and produce flooding downpours across the region. Storms are forecast to become strong to severe with the potential to produce strong wind gusts.

"The occasional tornado cannot be ruled out along the coast as storms move onshore," he added.

The threat for severe weather will likely be limited to areas along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor Thursday and Thursday night.

Along with the threats over land, mariners may have to keep an eye out for thunderstorms capable of producing waterspouts as well.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to advance east with the system on Friday, spreading from eastern Mississippi to Georgia and western South Carolina by the afternoon.

Severe weather will be less likely to end the week as the main energy of the storm lifts north. But storms can still bring occasional downpours as moisture lingers over the Southeast.

Farther north, a pocket of steadier rain can be expected in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

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Rainfall totals through the second half of the week will climb to around 1-2 inches across the region. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 3 inches is possible in areas that receive prolonged periods of heavier rain or downpours from thunderstorms.

Flooding in poor drainage and low lying areas will be common with this amount of rain in a short period of time, but the pattern of wet weather during the beginning of the month will increase the risk for widespread flooding.

As of Tuesday, many rivers and streams along the Mississippi Valley are already reported to be in minor to moderate flood stage. Additional rainfall expected through the end of the week can add to the high water levels.

But rainfall may not be the only factor that will raise the risk of flooding.

More mild air expected in the Upper Midwest through the end of the week can cause some snowmelt across the region and extra water flowing downstream can be enough to push rivers over their banks.

While more rain in the forecast will threaten flooding for some, others will welcome the rain.

Related:

What you should do if you get stuck driving in floodwaters
Relentless storm train to unload inches of rain, yards of snow on northwestern US
Wintry mess targets central US into late week while travel hazards abound

"Much of the South was experiencing below-normal rainfall amounts from December through the first week of the new year, managing to get missed by the storms that traveled across the northern tier of the country," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Travis.

"Cities like Little Rock, Arkansas, Oklahoma City and Houston all ended the month of December with 15 percent or less of the month's normal rainfall," she said.

"Since then, several storms helped to lessen the dry conditions for some locations. Little Rock recorded over 4 inches of rain during the first half of January, while Oklahoma City recorded just shy of 2 inches of rain on just Jan. 16 and 17," Travis added.

Many areas in Texas are still in a moderate drought, according to Thursday's report from the U.S. Drought Monitor. As the storm tracks across the southern Plains it will bring beneficial rain to the area.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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