Multiple rounds of severe weather to storm through the Plains and Upper Midwest this week
This drone footage shows much of this forest flattened after a deadly tornado swept through this region in Winchester, Kentucky, on July 2. Thousands of native hardwood trees were destroyed.
Damaging winds and some instances of hail that occurred in the Rockies and High Plains this past weekend will be a continuing trend this week. AccuWeather meteorologists are also monitoring areas in the Midwest for a lower-end threat as well.
Large risk zone on Monday
Monday will likely start of quiet in terms of severe weather in most areas. By Monday afternoon, heating of the day combined with energy in the atmosphere will combine and cause storms to quickly develop in the northern High Plains. The most likely area for the storms to first form is in southwestern South Dakota and into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The primary threat will be damaging winds, but large hail will also be a concern. The strongest storms will also have a tornado risk.
Those storms will continue overnight, with damaging winds being the primary risk after dark. North and south of the moderate risk area, spotty storms will carry a wind and hail risk. Outside of the moderate risk area, storms should weaken after midnight.
Stormy corridor to shift eastward on Tuesday
A brief break in severe weather will occur in the Plains on Tuesday, although there could still be a few thunderstorms. The energy in the atmosphere that will be responsible for Monday's storms will move into the Midwest. That energy will become less-focused, causing the severe threat to be a bit lower. Flooding downpours and localized damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards.
Risk zone farther west again on Wednesday
Very warm air will be building over the northern Rockies and the High Plains on Tuesday. That heat will reach its crescendo on Wednesday, with some locations expected to rise over 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Not only will temperatures that high have the potential to challenge records, but the warmth will also provide the fuel for thunderstorm development. It will likely take until very late in the day and overnight for many of the thunderstorms to develop, at which time a cold front will add another ingredient for thunderstorms.
Hail, flash flooding and damaging winds will be the primary hazards. At this point, tornadoes seem unlikely but that potential will continue to be monitored.
Peak of severe weather potentially on Thursday
Although it is still several days away, the atmospheric setup looks conducive to a higher-end severe weather threat on Thursday. The first will be the aforementioned cold front moving into a very hot air mass. The contrast in air masses combined with ample energy, spin in the atmosphere and rising air for thunderstorms to grow will lead to widespread thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon.
"A more vigorous and worrisome severe thunderstorm risk is likely by later Thursday into Thursday night, as AccuWeather severe weather experts are already forecasting a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms during this time across parts of the Dakotas," warned AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
"Rapid development of severe thunderstorms, which could contain flooding downpours, damaging winds, large hail and even isolated tornadoes, is expected," said Pydynowski.
As Thursday draws closer, it is possible that AccuWeather severe weather experts will upgrade a portion of the moderate risk zone to a high risk.
"Those with outdoor plans Thursday evening in cities such as Fargo, Bismarck and Grand Forks, North Dakota and Pierre, South Dakota will want to remain weather aware during the evening and have severe weather alerts enabled on their AccuWeather app to be prepared for approaching severe thunderstorms," advised Pydynowski.
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Lower risk of severe weather at the end of the week
The same storm will progress eastward on Friday. However, the available energy in the atmosphere will be much less than on Thursday. Therefore, the risk is lower as the storms track toward Interstate 35. Still, thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail and damaging winds.
By the weekend, the severe weather potential looks even lower. Even non-severe thunderstorms contain dangerous lightning, so anyone with outdoor plans will still need to keep an eye to the sky and seek shelter is the sky darkens.
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