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Gusty storms, flooding to impact central US through Election Day

Despite an ongoing drought in the Plains and Midwest, AccuWeather forecasters are concerned about flooding through the early week.

By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Nov 2, 2024 11:19 AM EDT | Updated Nov 5, 2024 6:34 AM EDT

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Some areas of the country will see potentially disruptive storms on Election Day, while others will be unseasonably warm. AccuWeather’s Geoff Cornish breaks down the details.

A storm will deliver much-needed rain to the Plains and Midwest through the early week. Unfortunately, flooding and gusty thunderstorms are also expected.

With some areas receiving multiple rounds of storms, a growing concern will become flooding. Despite widespread drought, too much rain is likely to fall too quickly. In addition, the ground is often less able to absorb rainfall during a drought. This is because of the ground hardening due to a lack of moisture.

Thunderstorms this past weekend and during the start of the work week brought a variety of severe weather from hail and damaging wind gusts to flash flooding and even tornadoes.

AccuWeather forecasters are warning of a high risk for potentially damaging tornadoes from Texas into Missouri on the evening of Nov. 4.

There will be a much lower risk of severe weather as millions head to the polls to cast their votes on Election Day. That said, it will not be a dry day nationwide.

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"Those in lines outdoors waiting to vote on Tuesday will need to be prepared for the threat of lightning and heavy downpours which could extend from portions of Louisiana and Arkansas northeastward through the middle Mississippi River Valley and into the Midwest," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

Thunderstorms are in the forecast for some swing states like Wisconsin, thunder is unlikely farther to the east, but a chilly, rainy day is in store for those in Michigan.

"Some localized downpours could lead to ponding on roadways across parts of Wisconsin, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern lower Michigan," said Pydynowski.

By the time the rain is all said and done on Tuesday, many areas will have several inches of rain. Flash flooding will be concern with a large area of 4-8 inches of rain. Some locations in a swath from southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri through northeastern and central Oklahoma are expected to receive 8-12 inches of rain. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is 18 inches.

The Plains and Midwest are expected to dry out by midweek, as rain moves eastward into the Ohio Valley and Southeast. In those locations, there is little concern for severe weather or flooding at this time.

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Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.

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