Severe storms, flooding risk to ramp up in the Plains, Ohio Valley
Multiple storms moving across the Plains and Ohio Valley in the upcoming week will set the stage for a multiday severe weather risk and flooding.
AccuWeather Long Range Expert Joe Lundberg looks ahead to the upcoming week, particularly from March 5-11. From Texas to the Ohio Valley, there is a rising concern for the risk of severe weather and flooding.
Clashing cold and warm air with plenty of moisture streaming in from the Gulf will set the stage for an active storm pattern from portions of the Plains to the Ohio Valley in early March, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
Numerous storms will bring rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the upcoming week. There could even be a multiday risk of severe weather and flooding from Texas to Ohio.
A notable southward dip in the jet stream will set up over the western United States later this week, ushering cooler air into the area, while a northward bulge builds in the East and allows warmth to surge across the region.
“This setup will aid in drawing up an influx of moisture from the Gulf northward ahead of the approaching storms,” says AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. “The influx of moisture, combined with a northward bulge of the jet stream in the East, can result in multiple days of persistent rounds of rain and thunderstorms across the Plains, as well as the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys.”
How widespread and severe the storms are each day through this stretch will depend on the timing and strength of each storm. Regardless, individuals in this corridor should prepare and have many ways to receive flooding and severe thunderstorm-related warnings.
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The risk for severe weather will start on Wednesday, when AccuWeather meteorologists have issued "some" risk from northeastern Texas to eastern Kansas and southwestern Illinois. Cities including Dallas, Oklahoma City and Little Rock will need to be on alert, as any thunderstorm could be severe.
Hazards, including large hail, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and even isolated tornadoes, will be possible in any thunderstorm that develops. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is 80 mph.
Thursday afternoon and night, the risk for severe thunderstorms will continue from portions of northern Texas into parts of southern Kansas. Hail, flooding and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph can occur in any thunderstorm that turns severe.
The risk for severe thunderstorms will continue Friday and Friday night in a similar area to Wednesday, from portions of northern Texas to south-central Missouri. All hazards once again will be possible in any thunderstorm, including hail, flooding, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.
Along with the risk of severe weather, there will be an increasing risk of flooding early to mid-March. While the first couple of rounds of rain will be largely beneficial due to the ongoing drought conditions across the region, thanks to the persistent rounds of storms through much of the week, the risk for flooding will increase.
"Some significant rises on secondary rivers in the region may be possible," adds AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Farther upstream, this pattern will also bring some warmups to the Midwest and Northeast. That, combined with any rain that reaches farther north, could increase the risk of ice jams and river flooding this week.
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