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Flash flood warnings in effect as deluge strikes Texas

AccuWeather meteorologists say that in addition to the rounds of drenching rain, some thunderstorms could turn severe in the Lone Star State, with a deadly tornado already reported Saturday morning.

By Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published May 11, 2023 12:58 PM EDT | Updated May 14, 2023 9:53 AM EDT

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A stalled storm in Texas will lead to days of excessively wet weather for millions in the state. In addition, some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes.

A stalled storm in Texas is resulting in excessively wet weather for millions in the state, and AccuWeather meteorologists continue to emphasize that the rounds of rain and severe thunderstorms could create a very dangerous situation through the weekend.

Severe weather also spun up a tornado in Laguna Heights, Texas, where two fatalities were reported from the twister that occurred during the early-morning hours of Saturday. At least 10 were injured by the tornado, and local search and rescue operations were ongoing as of Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, flash flood warnings were hoisted for an area between San Antonio and Victoria, Texas, midday Saturday as downpours plagued the region. By early Sunday morning, flash flood watches covered Houston and far southern Texas.

AccuWeather meteorologists warn that severe thunderstorms, compounded with heavy, tropical downpours, could continue to cause significant problems in parts of the state on Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms, flooding downpours continue in Texas

A storm will move slowly across Texas through Sunday, pulling an exorbitant amount of moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico as it does so. The combination of the storm and moisture could bring more than a foot of rain to some areas while spawning multiple days of severe thunderstorms.

This influx of moisture was be so significant that a widespread 1–2 inches of rain already fell from northeastern Mexico to southwestern Oklahoma. A slightly smaller, but still expansive, zone from Brownsville to Wichita Falls, Texas, is likely to surpass 2 inches of rain by Sunday evening.

"Much of central Texas is in a long-term drought, so for many in the region, the idea of receiving several inches of rain over the course of a few days would be welcome news," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski. Most locations are experiencing severe, extreme or even exceptional drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. 

However, the rounds of repeated downpours could instead bring some significant and dangerous flooding.

"Despite how dry it has been across much of Texas, the rain can fall heavily enough over a short amount of time to cause flash flooding and rapid water rises on small streams, creeks and dangerous flooding on streets and highways," Pydynowski warned.

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This could be especially true for major cities across central Texas, like San Antonio, Austin and Abilene, where half a foot of rain could fall in just a couple of days. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches remains within the realm of possibility.

A significant amount of rain hitting the relatively dry ground can also quickly lead to ground erosion and road washouts. Motorists should be vigilant to avoid flooded roadways where the path could be washed away or deep enough to lose control of a vehicle. Delays in travel, both on the roads and at airports, should be expected, forecasters say.

To make matters worse, the thunderstorms contributing to the deluge of rain across much of Texas could also turn severe, with hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes all possible.

Significant weather risk to coincide with Title 42 expiration

AccuWeather's experts warn that the heavy rain and severe weather risks could turn life-threatening along the U.S.-Mexico border where officials are bracing for a migrant surge as Title 42 has expired as of Thursday night.

“I’m concerned about the already challenging and dynamic situation along the southern border becoming even more problematic given the risk for repeated rounds of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, poorly timed in the immediate aftermath of Title 42 expiring," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

Along the Rio Grande River, which flows along the border between Mexico and the United States, is where some of the heaviest rainfall is forecast. Locations from Del Rio, Texas, and Ciudad Acuna, Mexico, to Nye, Texas, and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico, could have rain totals in excess of 6 inches by the end of the weekend.

"Rapidly rising and quickly flowing water associated with flash flooding can be a significant threat for people in the vicinity of the southern border and also farther north in Texas," Porter said. "Should flash flooding occur near the border, a serious humanitarian situation could evolve.”

More to read:

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Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.

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AccuWeather Severe Weather Flash flood warnings in effect as deluge strikes Texas
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