Millions at risk for nocturnal severe weather, tornadoes next week
A widespread, severe weather event could unfold in parts of the central and eastern United States next week that includes the risk of damaging winds and tornadoes at night.
AccuWeather Severe Weather Expert Guy Pearson speaks on the factors adding up to likely produce a severe weather outbreak in the northern Rockies and Plains states next week.
The potential for a multiple-day severe weather outbreak, including tornadoes, continues to build from portions of the Great Plains to large parts of the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee valleys spanning Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. The severe weather risk may even reach part of the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday.
The storms will likely erupt along a strong cold front, with other key ingredients being a surge of warm, moist air ahead of the front and a strong jet stream that will lunge eastward from the Rockies. Temperatures are likely to surge to record-high levels by day and remain at unusually high levels at night in much of the Central states ahead of the front.
All modes of severe weather are possible, ranging from powerful wind gusts and large hail to flash flooding and even a few tornadoes.
AccuWeather has outlined the zones at risk for at least some severe weather next week but may escalate the severe weather outlook in the coming days as more details on the outbreak come into focus.
While a few severe storms may erupt over the southern High Plains of Texas and Oklahoma Monday evening, the main threat of severe weather is likely to hold off until late Tuesday afternoon.
Approximately 45 million people from northeastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana to southern Wisconsin, southern Michigan and much of Ohio may be at risk for severe thunderstorms, including a possible tornado, from late Tuesday through Tuesday night, AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. While the area is subject to change in the coming days, some of the major cities at risk Tuesday evening include Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, St. Louis, Columbus, Ohio, and Little Rock, Arkansas.
As the cold front advances eastward, the threat of severe weather will also move along on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, a rapid press of cold air is likely to undercut the severe weather threat as thunderstorms approach the Appalachians. However, there is the potential for some severe weather to affect areas from western Pennsylvania to the central portions of Mississippi and Alabama, as well as part of northern Georgia.
Some of the major cities and travel hubs that could be at risk for severe weather for part of Wednesday to Wednesday night include Pittsburgh, Nashville and Memphis, Tennessee; Louisville, Kentucky; Birmingham, Alabama; and perhaps some of the northern and western suburbs of Atlanta, Buckingham said.
It is possible that cold air may charge in so quickly into the eastern Great Lakes and central Appalachians that Wednesday may begin with downpours and locally severe thunderstorms followed by a quick covering of snow in the afternoon and then a freeze-up at night.
Based on the latest information, increasing forward motion of the cold front may limit the risk of severe weather to the morning hours in the coastal Northeast and the morning and midday hours in the Carolinas and Georgia on Thursday.
In many cases on Thursday, the front may move through with a brief period of downpours, thunder, lightning and gusty winds. The risk of severe storms may be greater in areas where the front does not move through until the afternoon, such as central and southern Florida.
At some point from Wednesday evening to Thursday, the thunderstorm activity may focus along a solid line containing strong wind gusts and downpours. There may still be a risk of isolated tornadoes embedded along the line or possibly rotating thunderstorms that develop ahead of the line.
Forecasters recommend that people and officials review their severe weather safety measures and action plans. March marks the beginning of the severe weather season. Still, severe weather can occur year-round, and with the scope of well-above-historical-average temperatures this winter, severe weather will likely get off to an early start.
The risk of flight delays and cancellations will mount as the severe weather ramps up next week and moves into progressively larger cities. The storms will also create dangerous conditions as they cross highways, so motorists should be on alert.
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