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Pearl River reaches major flood stage and continues to rise as reservoir surpasses capacity

By Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer & Chaffin Mitchell, AccuWeather staff writer

Published Feb 14, 2020 3:59 PM EDT

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Neighborhood homes and buildings were flooded on Sunday, as the Pearl River is now forecast to crest in Jackson lower than predicted at 37.5 feet Monday, Feb. 17.

After passing major flood stage over the weekend, the Pearl River in Jackson, Mississippi was nearing an expected crest of 37.5 feet on Monday morning.

Pearl River Valley Water Supply District (PRVWSD) officials said they held the water in the Ross Barnett Reservoir as long as possible, but the reservoir hit capacity on Saturday, WAPT reported.

“We do not anticipate this situation to end anytime soon. It will be days before we are out of the woods and the waters recede,” Mississippi Gov. Reeves said in a press conference on Sunday morning.

Aerial shot taken Saturday before the Pearl River passed major flood stage. (Twitter/Kelly Kyle)

This area has not seen the river this high in 37 years.

“While we did get two beautiful days of sunshine, do not let that lull you into a false sense of hope. The flooding has not receded, and we are seeing rain and we expect to see rain later in the week as well,” Reeves said.

Reeves said with the latest river projections, officials expect the Pearl River to crest sometime Monday mid-morning in northeast Jackson, above Lakeland, and later in the day on Monday in downtown Jackson.

Floodwaters begin to encroach the Harbor Pines Mobile Home Community in Ridgeland, Mississippi. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

PRVWSD officials started incrementally increasing the amount of water flowing out of the reservoir to match the amount of water flowing in throughout Saturday night into Sunday morning. People in the area of Northeast Jackson and Lakeland Drive will see the most immediate impacts, PRVWSD warned.

"It will take 12 hours for the peak to hit the Highway 80 gauge and for the full impact to reach the downtown and South Jackson areas," Sigman said Saturday night.

The heavy flooding ushered a state of emergency into the region on midday Saturday as the Pearl River approached flood stage in the state capital on Saturday.

This is a historic, unprecedented flood. With projections showing the potential of this being the 3rd worst flood in our state’s history, I‘ve declared a state of emergency to deploy the necessary resources to take care of all Mississippians impacted. 1/3 pic.twitter.com/r3rGEKZPle

— Governor Tate Reeves (@tatereeves) February 15, 2020

Ridgeland, a city in the Jackson Metropolitan area, issued mandatory evacuations on Thursday. Ridgeland sits next to the Ross Barnett Reservoir, a reservoir of the Pearl River. Citing the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Jackson, Mayor Gene McGee said he expected the river to continue rising through the weekend and crest near 38 feet on Sunday.

"The City will inform residents when it's safe to return to their property," Ridgeland officials said on Facebook after asking everyone to vacate their homes.

Jacob Goolsby, right, assists his neighbor Jessica Otto carry some of her belongings to her vehicle as they evacuate the Harbor Pines Mobile Home Community in Ridgeland, Mississippi. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

Several streets in Jackson are under evacuation orders, and Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba is sending officers door-to-door to spread the word.

The eastern area of Byram, Mississippi is also experiencing major flooding from Pearl River.

The hydrologic river forecast from the NWS originally called for the Pearl River to reach 38 feet at Jackson. According to the NWS expected flood impacts, reaching 38 feet would mean that a "large number of homes are flooded in Northeast Jackson and water is in some buildings in downtown Jackson."

Old Brandon Road in Flowood headed into Jackson, Mississippi. Twitter/PearlGovernment

At 34 feet, dozens of streets are flooded, and at 35 feet, some businesses are affected near Town Creek while water begins approaching homes in the Hightower Area.

Gatesville Road south of Jackson, Mississippi on Sunday morning. Twitter/David Lord

The record crest for the river is 43.28 feet, set in 1979. The river has topped 36 feet only seven times and not once since 1983, but that changed on Saturday night as the water level rose above 36 feet for the eighth time.

Residents began filling sandbags and preparing their homes, businesses and churches for the flooding earlier this week after multiple days of heavy rain. During the middle of last week, floodwaters from overflowing streams and creeks began approaching First Pentecostal Church North.

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"We're all praying that this thing will subside," Bill Chatham, the church's pastor, told Wadell. "To go back down like it always has, but it's in the Lord's hand."

Floodwaters began to approach the First Pentecostal Church North as church leaders and members pray for protection. (AccuWeather Bill Waddell)

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said that while more storms are expected this week, rainfall is not likely to be as intense as that of recent storms.

"Rainfall totals for all of this week may be in the neighborhood of 1-2 inches," Sosnowski said. "The past 10 days have brought 5-7 inches of rain in the area. The next big, single rain event may hold off until late-February."

By then, Sosnowski said, the Pearl River should be well into recession and could even be below minor flood stage.

But in the short term, officials like Moore are pushing residents to take caution and heed warnings. During the flooding and potentially destructive weekend, Lumumba also urged people to stay out of floodwaters.

"They anticipate it staying up several days," Moore said. "It will probably be a week, according to the reservoir, at the reservoir before we can drop the river level down enough for the residents to even get back in homes to see what kind of damage they’ve got."

Reporting from Mississippi by Bill Waddell.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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