Large severe weather outbreak looms for central US late week
Soon after warm air expands and has tens of millions thinking of spring and the outdoors, a dangerous outbreak of severe weather is anticipated later this week for a large part of the central United States.
AccuWeather’s Guy Pearson was live on the AccuWeather Network on March 10 to discuss the severe weather threat later this week in the north-central U.S.
As a powerful storm takes shape just east of the Rockies by the middle of the week, AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting a vast eruption of severe weather, including the potential for tornadoes, Friday and Saturday in the zone from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley.
Should the storm develop to its full potential, it could be one of the strongest on record for the region in terms of low pressure. The more intense the storm, the greater the amount of energy will be available for severe weather, rain, snow and winds in general.
Even a more moderate, typical storm for the middle of March will produce a significant, large, multiple-day severe weather threat that includes the risk of tornadoes.
Severe storms to erupt ahead of main threat
Some locally severe thunderstorms will erupt well ahead of the main storm system on Wednesday over the south-central United States.
This may be followed by a few potent thunderstorms that erupt over parts of western and central Texas and Oklahoma late Thursday and Thursday night.
Friday severe weather scope could be huge
However, Friday will be the first "big day" in terms of area coverage with severe weather associated with the powerful storm system. Close to 500,000 square miles of the Central states may be at risk of severe thunderstorms.
At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists expect the risk of severe thunderstorms on Friday to extend from the shores of the Gulf northward to nearly the Canada border over the Central states. This includes the zone from the eastern parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas to portions of Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana.
Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast in the states of Arkansas, Mississippi, Iowa and Illinois.
The greatest threat on Friday will be from storms packing high winds with many gusts ranging from 65-75 mph and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust of 100 mph.
A number of storms may also produce large, damaging hail and torrential downpours on Friday.
Due to the intensity of the storm system, winds will be strong and widespread even without thunderstorm activity. On Friday, the area subject to wind gusts of 40 mph or greater and capable of producing sporadic power outages may exceed 1 million square miles. Where the brush is dry, the high winds could lead to rapidly moving wildfires.
Severe weather threat to continue on Saturday
The storms will continue to progress into a zone of warm air on Saturday—in some cases, the warmest conditions since last fall. This will likely have many people outside enjoying the conditions or perhaps taking short road trips. People may not be paying attention to the severe weather risk.
On Saturday, the threat of severe weather will extend from the central Gulf coast northward to the Great Lakes region. At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists believe the greatest concentration of severe thunderstorms will be in southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, middle and eastern Tennessee, the western part of the Florida Panhandle and western Georgia.
The concentration of severe weather in the Southern states could limit the scope of severe weather in the Midwest.
Like Friday, the greatest threats will stem from damaging wind gusts, large hail and torrential downpours. There is some indication that the forward speed of the thunderstorms may stall. If so, that could boost the risk of flash flooding in the vicinity of the southern Appalachians and part of the Tennessee Valley.
On Sunday, the risk of severe weather will likely continue as thunderstorms pick up forward speed and grind toward the Atlantic coast. At the very least, there will be squally rains with flash flooding and strong wind gusts that can lead to travel delays.
Tornadoes among the likelihood of severe weather
Both Friday and Saturday may bring a significant tornado threat.
The number and intensity of the tornadoes will depend on the number of discrete, isolated storms that are able to develop rotation. These supercell thunderstorms tend to bring some of the strongest tornadoes. The main factors for the development of supercell thunderstorms will be the amount of sunshine and daytime heating available. Cloud cover could keep some of the warming in check, but not everywhere.
The likelihood of severe weather and the threat of tornadoes will not stop at the end of the daylight on Friday and Saturday. Dangerous storms will continue well into the night.
Even if few or no supercell thunderstorms form, there can still be embedded tornadoes in a squall (solid) line of thunderstorms that are producing widespread straight-line wind gusts and torrential downpours.
An EF2 tornado that destroyed homes was confirmed in central Florida on Monday.
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