Gulf storm hits southeast US with drenching rain, strong winds and severe weather
A storm from the Gulf of Mexico will not develop into a full-fledged tropical system, but it will still be capable of producing strong winds and flooding rain across parts of the South into late this week.
Heavy rain, gusty winds and severe thunderstorms will continue to impact the Gulf Coast and Florida through the end of the week.
A strengthening storm spinning over the northern Gulf of Mexico will fall short of becoming a tropical system, but AccuWeather meteorologists maintain that heavy rain, gusty winds and severe thunderstorms, some with tornadoes, will impact the southeastern United States through the end of the week.
Rain, thunderstorms and winds gathered over the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday in response to a southward dip in the jet stream that broke off from the main part of the river of air high in the atmosphere. The rain, thunderstorms and increasing winds pushed across the Florida Peninsula and into the mainland part of the Southeastern states on Thursday and will affect the Carolinas on Friday.
This image was captured on Thursday, April 13, 2023. (Enhanced AccuWeather RealView™ Satellite)
The structure of the storm on satellite and radar images resembled that of a tropical system. However, the storm did not have enough time to officially evolve into a tropical system, as water temperatures were too low to allow a quick transformation. Regardless, this system will remain a potent storm as it moves northeastward into Friday evening.
The rain can be heavy enough to lead to some flooding problems, mainly in urban areas from Florida, westward to southeastern Louisiana and northward to the Carolinas as the storm moves along.
A flash flood emergency was issued on Wednesday for the Fort Lauderdale area that included a ground stop at Fort Lauderdale Hollywood International Airport and a closure of the airport until noon on Thursday. The city received more than 2 feet of rain in 24 hours, which is estimated to occur only 1 in 1,000 times or more. A severe thunderstorm stalled over the metro area and kept regenerating over and over. More than a foot of water was reported to have poured into a fire station near the airport, forcing an evacuation.
Most areas will not come close to the magnitude of rain that fell in Fort Lauderdale Wednesday evening. "The storm is likely to bring a general 0.75 of an inch to 1.50 inches of rain in the Southeast states, but locally, much higher amounts will occur," AccuWeather Meteorologist Jeffrey Nordeen said. Portions of southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Peninsula may pick up 3–6 inches of rain from Thursday through Friday evening.
Prior to the storm's formation, a stalled front contributed to torrential downpours and localized flooding in parts of South Florida. About 3–6 inches of rain fell around the Miami area from Monday to Wednesday morning.
"From near Miami to perhaps as far north as West Palm Beach, Florida, is one of those spots that could have some issues with localized flooding," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "Another stretch that may have urban flooding issues extends from New Orleans to Tallahassee, Florida, into Thursday."
A storm this past Friday and Saturday soaked a large area from Alabama to Georgia and the Carolinas with 1–3 inches of rain and brought challenges for golfers competing in the Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Course in Georgia.
Winds will not be as strong as a tropical storm, which can have sustained winds ranging from 39 mph to 73 mph. However, stiff breezes of 15-25 mph with higher gusts near the coast are likely.
"The combination of the heavy rain and strengthening winds into Friday with an already wet soil could bring trees down and lead to localized power outages and property damage," AccuWeather Meteorologist Mary Gilbert said.
Where winds blow onshore for several hours or more along the northeast Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts, surf conditions will be rough, with coastal flooding at times of the high tide.
Most of the weekend will be free of rain in the Southeast, but thunderstorms may roll in Sunday, forecasters say.
The storm system will have a few other tricks up its sleeve that are similar to a tropical system.
"Strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Thursday for portions of Alabama, Georgia and Florida," Gilbert said. "Brief tornadoes and/or waterspouts are also not out of the question."
During Thursday evening and night, the risk of severe thunderstorms will include the Atlanta metro area, as well as a large portion of South Carolina, as the threat begins to diminish farther to the south.
The storm system is not all bad news for parts of the Southeast, however.
"While rounds of downpours this week can lead to localized flooding, any rain that falls will ultimately work to negate ongoing drought conditions along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts," Gilbert said.
Prior to the storm from last Friday to Saturday, abnormally dry long-term conditions existed across coastal portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, as well as parts of the Carolinas, according to the United States Drought Monitor. Much of the Florida Peninsula was in severe drought. The newest drought monitor report, scheduled to be released Thursday, April 13, could show potential improvement in these areas due to last week’s storm.
The storm's next stop will be in the Northeast during this upcoming weekend, as it will affect the mid-Atlantic Saturday and then New England Sunday.
The storm can bring localized downpours and a stiff breeze for a time in coastal areas of the Northeast. While the rain may not be welcomed by those with outdoor plans, it may help alleviate the increasing brush fire threat following dry and warm conditions much of this week.
On Sunday, the Gulf storm’s moisture will merge with a potent storm set to produce severe weather in the Mississippi Valley. As a result, parts of the mid-Atlantic could have rain both days of the weekend.
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