Fall severe storm threat to march east, bringing a risk of damaging winds
In addition to the likelihood of some tree damage and power outages, the strong winds can end the fall foliage season across much of the interior Northeast.
Most parts of the Northeast will get less than an inch of rain from the approaching mid-October storms, but some places could experience severe storms with damaging winds.
Trips to the pumpkin patch and loose Halloween decorations are in jeopardy this weekend as a threat for severe thunderstorms expands east, warn AccuWeather meteorologists.
The storms, fueled by a medley of atmospheric ingredients typical during the "second severe weather season" of fall, can bring a risk for powerful winds, downpours and even a tornado or two through Sunday.
"The combination of the jet stream interacting with warm and humid air will make for a volatile situation where storms can produce more widespread wind damage," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Even outside of thunderstorms, strong winds from a sudden drop in atmospheric pressure are expected later in the weekend, especially in the Great Lakes region.
Millions are at risk for October severe storms
As a storm emerged from the Rockies earlier this past week, thunderstorms containing damaging winds pummeled parts of the Plains. That risk will build east through Sunday, warn AccuWeather severe weather experts.
On Sunday, the risk for gusty storms will build farther north and east toward the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Appalachians and portions of the interior mid-Atlantic states.
"A narrow squall line of showers and thunderstorms will race eastward bringing a brief period of gusty and locally damaging winds on Sunday," warned Douty. "In some areas, there may not even be thunder associated with this narrow line of showers, despite a threat for locally damaging winds."
The gusty squall line will be embedded in a large area of rain that can amount to 1-2 inches of rain gauges, which will move through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Northeast and mid-Atlantic from Sunday into Sunday night. The rain can even last into the start of the workweek on Monday in New England, resulting in a slow morning commute.
While the gusty winds are not needed, the rain is. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday, most of the northeastern quarter of the nation was experiencing abnormally dry to extreme drought conditions.
Unfortunately, the rain will only put a dent in rainfall deficits that have been building for months.
Gusty winds outside of storms to end foliage season for many
The risk for damaging winds will not be confined to just heavy showers and thunderstorms, but can also occur outside of them, warn AccuWeather meteorologists.
"This first wind-driven cold front of the season will move through the Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill. "Those who have elaborate Halloween decorations in place should secure them before the high winds arrive, and prepare for a few power flickers."
A large area will experience wind gusts of 30-40 mph from this cold front and storm, while an area around the Great Lakes and south into parts of the Ohio Valley and Appalachians will endure gusts of 40-50 mph. The city of Cleveland, where a football game against Miami can be impacted on Sunday afternoon, as well as Detroit and Pittsburgh, are in this area where stronger wind gusts are expected.
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As rain shifts north and east on Monday, so will the gusty winds. Widespread wind gusts of over 30 mph are expected to start the new workweek in the Northeast, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 65 mph in central New England.
Not only will the strong winds blow around loose decorations and potentially knock down tree limbs and power lines, it could also help mark the end of the fall foliage season for a large portion of the Great Lakes region and interior Northeast.
As of this weekend, fall foliage was at or near peak levels in many areas across the central Appalachian mountains, and from Ohio and Pennsylvania on north. The combination of heavy rain and strong winds will bring down leaves en masse, which can also clog storm drains and cause flooding, as well as make for slippery roads.
A danger also exists for boaters out on the lakes.
"A gusty southwest fetch over the eastern Great Lakes will produce waves of 8 to 13 feet that can capsize or damage boats," warned Merrill. "The strongest gusts will occur during the daylight hours on Sunday."
The Great Lakes region is no stranger to major wind storms in the fall months. Nearly 50 years ago, in November 1975, the S.S. Edmund Fitzgerald famously sank during a powerful fall storm on Lake Superior.
Fortunately, for those pining for a return to quieter, nicer fall conditions, they won't have to wait long. "After a wild ride on Sunday, it’ll be a whole different ballgame on Monday with lower temperatures and far lighter winds in the Midwest and Northeast," said Merrill.
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